Disclaimer 1: If you are entertained by advanced sports analytics and looking at data, you may enjoy this. If this disgust you, you may really despise this. This is long....I've warned you.
Disclaimer 2: correlations are not causations. They simply describe events that have occurred, but should not be used to predict future outcomes.
The Battle for Pace
First, a lot of attention has been made about ISU “controlling†the pace against Virginia to be effective offensively (i.e. if ISU plays fast they win the game or conversely, if Virginia slows down ISU they will win). Due to they way Virginia value offensive rebounds, Virginia almost always has players back on defense with exact intention of preventing transition offense. Note that pace and transition offense are inextricably linked. Simply, Virginia is very effective at preventing transition offense….they are not necessarily a team that is trying to control pace, they are trying to prevent transition offense. You will notice the possessions per game for Virginia is very narrow, not much variability. It is also noticeably slower than ISU which should come to no surprise.
Virginia’s pace is not strongly correlated (R² = -0.008) to the difference between the offensive vs. defensive efficiency (which is the absolute efficiency defined below). ISU’s pace is not strongly correlated to absolute efficiency either (R² = 0.0527)
Absolute Efficiency =
Positive (+) #: oPPP > dPPP => won game
Negative (-) #: oPP < dPP => lost game
Note- overtime makes sure this never happens, oPPP = dPPP, that would be a tie game
Further, if ISU can speed up the game (which I don’t think it can by a lot) I am not necessarily convinced this will be advantageous to ISU’s success. Again the pace at which ISU has played this season generally has not dictated it’s ability to win games. For example, against top-200 KenPom opponents:
Again there is not a large difference in ISU average score in wins vs. losses, but this somewhat illustrates that a low possession, slower paced game is not necessarily a bad thing for ISU. Again no surprise, but ISU wins if it performs well on defense (more on this later). If you have followed ISU at all this year, you should also know that ISU is equally effective offensively in its half-court offense.
The effectiveness of ISU’s defense will likely determine the outcome vs. Virginia…..not the offense
In wins or losses, ISU has always been able to perform well offensively….and let’s just hope this trend continues against Virginia because I don’t have that much confidence in ISU’s defense. What really determines if it wins is how effective ISU is on defense which should not be all that surprising.
While ISU’s offense vs. Virginia’s defense tends to be the major storyline heading into the game, I think the outcome of this game ultimately comes down to how effective ISU’s defense is against Virginia’s offense. In the figure above you will see offensive efficiency is not significantly correlated (R² = 0.1047)with winning games (i.e. positive absolute efficiency), but further you will see that pretty much whoever ISU has played this year its offense has performed relatively well against an opponent’s defense (see below). In 28/34 games ISU’s offense has “overperformed†vs. an opponent’s defense, but this does not always lead to a win however. In only 4 games (vs. Colorado, TCU, Texas A&M, & Ok. State) this year has an ISU’s offense “underperformedâ€, but if you recall only 1 of those games where ISU’s offense underperformed resulted in a loss (Texas A&M).
And it is not like ISU offense has outperformed teams that have poor defensive efficiency. ISU has overperformed against some KenPom top-ranked defenses in Kansas (#5), West Virginia (#6), Cincinatti (#16), Oklahoma (#18), and Kansas State (#30)- among others. Notably, ISU has not won all games where its offense outperformed an opponent’s defense.
ISU’s offense efficiency does not correlate to winning because it has been consistently proficient, but the defense on the other hand has been wildly inconsistent over the course of a season. You will notice in the graph above that ISU’s defensive efficiency is correlated (R² = -0.5183) quite well to ISU’s absolute efficiency. Put simply, if ISU plays good defense it wins, if ISU plays good offense is does not necessarily mean it wins. If ISU’s defense performs even average on defense (1 point per possession) it has won all games this season because it’s offense has been that good. In only 2 games vs. Texas A&M and Oklahoma (B12 tourney) has ISU defense “overperformed†while still resulting in a loss.
Looking at similar data on Virginia it becomes quite obvious how consistent Virginia’s offense and defense have been throughout the season. In losses against George Washington, Georgia Tech, and Florida State, Virginia’s game-specific offense efficiency “underperformed†relative to their season average offensive efficiency. Strikingly, only 1 game (vs. Virginia Tech) resulted in a loss in which Virginia’s game defensive efficiency “underperformed†relative to their season average defensive efficiency. In games vs. Duke and Miami FL Virginia’s defense and offense “overperformed†yet Virginia still lost. This not only demonstrates that Virginia has been in every game they’ve played, but also how consistently they have performed game-after-game. If there is any silver lining for ISU, it is that teams have won against Virginia even if it Virginia “overperforms†on both offense and defense.
Note 1: to avoid decimals and for scale all “point per possession†are represented x 100.
Note 2: Offensive or defensive efficiency can also be thought as points per possession
p.s. A summary table of correlations if you are interested:
Disclaimer 2: correlations are not causations. They simply describe events that have occurred, but should not be used to predict future outcomes.
The Battle for Pace
First, a lot of attention has been made about ISU “controlling†the pace against Virginia to be effective offensively (i.e. if ISU plays fast they win the game or conversely, if Virginia slows down ISU they will win). Due to they way Virginia value offensive rebounds, Virginia almost always has players back on defense with exact intention of preventing transition offense. Note that pace and transition offense are inextricably linked. Simply, Virginia is very effective at preventing transition offense….they are not necessarily a team that is trying to control pace, they are trying to prevent transition offense. You will notice the possessions per game for Virginia is very narrow, not much variability. It is also noticeably slower than ISU which should come to no surprise.
Virginia’s pace is not strongly correlated (R² = -0.008) to the difference between the offensive vs. defensive efficiency (which is the absolute efficiency defined below). ISU’s pace is not strongly correlated to absolute efficiency either (R² = 0.0527)
Absolute Efficiency =
Adjusted Offensive Points Per Possession (oPPP)
-
Adjusted Defensive Points Per Possession (dPPP)
-
Adjusted Defensive Points Per Possession (dPPP)
Positive (+) #: oPPP > dPPP => won game
Negative (-) #: oPP < dPP => lost game
Note- overtime makes sure this never happens, oPPP = dPPP, that would be a tie game
Further, if ISU can speed up the game (which I don’t think it can by a lot) I am not necessarily convinced this will be advantageous to ISU’s success. Again the pace at which ISU has played this season generally has not dictated it’s ability to win games. For example, against top-200 KenPom opponents:
| ISU | Opponent | Possessions | |
| ISU Wins | 80.5 | 69.0 | 70.9 |
| ISU Losses | 81.3 | 86.8 | 71 |
Again there is not a large difference in ISU average score in wins vs. losses, but this somewhat illustrates that a low possession, slower paced game is not necessarily a bad thing for ISU. Again no surprise, but ISU wins if it performs well on defense (more on this later). If you have followed ISU at all this year, you should also know that ISU is equally effective offensively in its half-court offense.
The effectiveness of ISU’s defense will likely determine the outcome vs. Virginia…..not the offense
In wins or losses, ISU has always been able to perform well offensively….and let’s just hope this trend continues against Virginia because I don’t have that much confidence in ISU’s defense. What really determines if it wins is how effective ISU is on defense which should not be all that surprising.
While ISU’s offense vs. Virginia’s defense tends to be the major storyline heading into the game, I think the outcome of this game ultimately comes down to how effective ISU’s defense is against Virginia’s offense. In the figure above you will see offensive efficiency is not significantly correlated (R² = 0.1047)with winning games (i.e. positive absolute efficiency), but further you will see that pretty much whoever ISU has played this year its offense has performed relatively well against an opponent’s defense (see below). In 28/34 games ISU’s offense has “overperformed†vs. an opponent’s defense, but this does not always lead to a win however. In only 4 games (vs. Colorado, TCU, Texas A&M, & Ok. State) this year has an ISU’s offense “underperformedâ€, but if you recall only 1 of those games where ISU’s offense underperformed resulted in a loss (Texas A&M).
And it is not like ISU offense has outperformed teams that have poor defensive efficiency. ISU has overperformed against some KenPom top-ranked defenses in Kansas (#5), West Virginia (#6), Cincinatti (#16), Oklahoma (#18), and Kansas State (#30)- among others. Notably, ISU has not won all games where its offense outperformed an opponent’s defense.
ISU’s offense efficiency does not correlate to winning because it has been consistently proficient, but the defense on the other hand has been wildly inconsistent over the course of a season. You will notice in the graph above that ISU’s defensive efficiency is correlated (R² = -0.5183) quite well to ISU’s absolute efficiency. Put simply, if ISU plays good defense it wins, if ISU plays good offense is does not necessarily mean it wins. If ISU’s defense performs even average on defense (1 point per possession) it has won all games this season because it’s offense has been that good. In only 2 games vs. Texas A&M and Oklahoma (B12 tourney) has ISU defense “overperformed†while still resulting in a loss.
Looking at similar data on Virginia it becomes quite obvious how consistent Virginia’s offense and defense have been throughout the season. In losses against George Washington, Georgia Tech, and Florida State, Virginia’s game-specific offense efficiency “underperformed†relative to their season average offensive efficiency. Strikingly, only 1 game (vs. Virginia Tech) resulted in a loss in which Virginia’s game defensive efficiency “underperformed†relative to their season average defensive efficiency. In games vs. Duke and Miami FL Virginia’s defense and offense “overperformed†yet Virginia still lost. This not only demonstrates that Virginia has been in every game they’ve played, but also how consistently they have performed game-after-game. If there is any silver lining for ISU, it is that teams have won against Virginia even if it Virginia “overperforms†on both offense and defense.
Note 1: to avoid decimals and for scale all “point per possession†are represented x 100.
Note 2: Offensive or defensive efficiency can also be thought as points per possession
p.s. A summary table of correlations if you are interested:
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