ISU will win if 4 of any 7 happen:
1. ISU holds Virginia below 1.05 points per possession
2. there is no foul trouble for ISU that dictates amount of minutes played by any starters
3. ISU has less than 10 turnovers
4. ISU prevents Virginia from getting 10 or more offensive rebounds
5. shoots better than 38% from 3
6. shoots more free throws than Virginia
7. If Nader, Thomas, and Deonte have more than 9 points
Just to follow up (aka the post-mortem):
2 of 7 happened (#4 and #5). Iowa State could have possibly won if 3 of 7 happened, but if any 4 of 7 would have made a win highly probable.
Pace:
The game last night was the highest possession game Virginia played all year (69). Notably, an ISU "feast or famine" full-court press in the 2nd half likely inflated the # of possessions in the game. Still I would argue a lower possession may have resulted in less foul trouble for ISU too. Virginia, as expected, was terrific in preventing transition offense. But that did not kill Iowa State. What did was Virginia getting both offensive rebounds while also preventing transition offense. Virginia scored on most offensive rebounds (6/7 ORs = 12 pts). That is very difficult to do. I thought ISU needed to get some ORs, but that did not happen either. Virginia was excellent on defensive on rebounds as they have been all year.
Defense relative to opponent:
Relative to Virginia's season averages, ISU "overperformed" on offense with 1.03 points per possession (Virginia held opponents to 0.92 point per possession over the course of the season). ISU's defense on the other hand "underperformed" while allowing Virginia to score 1.22 points per possession (ISU's season defensive points per possession was 100.4).
This was a mercurial season for sure, but highly enjoyable. Given the needed improvements on program culture (namely, practice energy & defense) and personnel issues (injuries, McKay,etc.) I don't know if there are many coaches who could have managed this season better than Prohm....and that includes Hoiberg. Nonetheless already intrigued about what the offseason and 2016-17 will bring.