I am depicting impact on me personally with the floods of 08/10. But I do understand the drought we are going through will impact more people.
Drought
- Thread starter MNCYWX
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I am depicting impact on me personally with the floods of 08/10. But I do understand the drought we are going through will impact more people.
Corn, no. Beans, maybe.
Corn is totally, 100% completely ****ed.
And give me a drought every time. Corn is breed for drought resistance.
When you letting go of the rest of your old crop? Am sitting on some bushels and waiting for $8.25 cash. Think it will get there or not?
My brother is the one that would know this stuff, so I'd have to ask him, but if I'm a betting man I'd say it will. If the lack of rain continues I can't see it going anywhere but up. How much it goes up is anybody's guess though.
That is kind of my thinking too, just worried about what the end user can actually pay. Anyone buying $8 + corn is hurting bad.
Absolutely. This drought is making for quite the situation between buyers and sellers. Commodity brokers everywhere must have their phones ringing off the hook.
Farm program 1988 --Under the 0-92 program, a corn farmer still has to deduct 20 percent of his base, for which he will be paid for half. After that, he doesn`t have to plant any corn on the remaining 80 percent of the base to be eligible for 92 percent of the full cash income supplement to which he would otherwise be eligible.
You were guaranteed a supplement, not full cash price, or potential income from planting a whole crop..
That year I insured my crop for 90 bushels/acre, I harvested 92 bu./acre. In Shelby County.
Corn depth of kernal can benefit from rain (filling the kernal) until it dents. Late April and May planted corn would be in that category. Soybeans have been in a holding pattern or dormant defensive mode and will respond 100%, although not able to reach the potential it had at one time. Generally speaking, Corn East of I-35 to the Eastern edge of the corn belt (border of Ohio/PA.) is done. That area was planted earlier this year.
Speaking of flooding, the Mississippi at a crucial point, is 10' deep in the channel. Larger barges have been parked and even smaller barges have to wait for periodic dredging to allow for traffic flow. Of course not as much grain will be traveling to NO via the Mississippi this year but still, its not often this situation rears its ugly head.
IMO, the 3 dry years we experienced in the mid to early 80's were far worse for grain production. At that time we did not have RUP hence no-till was unavailable and bio-tech seed was not on the market. We dryed the top foot of soil out with tillage, had weed pressure and corn was not bred to withstand stress. And MPCI crop insurance sucked. On top of that the financial "farm crisis" was at full roar which impacted land values which destroyed equity. This drouth is not good but if we were using the practises and seed from the 80's, it would have been all over a month ago.
As far as marketing, we are cleaning out bins as I speak. Give or take $8 is good enough for me. The end user can not sustain profitable margins much beyond that figure. Ethanol plants are reducing output now and only operating because they have some bushels being delivered on old contracts. When those run out, I suspect that they will not operate at a negative margin and just produce enough to keep the plant and employees operational.
It will be a long interesting survival mode for the livestock and ethanol producer until the 2013 crop becomes available.
Speaking of flooding, the Mississippi at a crucial point, is 10' deep in the channel. Larger barges have been parked and even smaller barges have to wait for periodic dredging to allow for traffic flow. Of course not as much grain will be traveling to NO via the Mississippi this year but still, its not often this situation rears its ugly head.
IMO, the 3 dry years we experienced in the mid to early 80's were far worse for grain production. At that time we did not have RUP hence no-till was unavailable and bio-tech seed was not on the market. We dryed the top foot of soil out with tillage, had weed pressure and corn was not bred to withstand stress. And MPCI crop insurance sucked. On top of that the financial "farm crisis" was at full roar which impacted land values which destroyed equity. This drouth is not good but if we were using the practises and seed from the 80's, it would have been all over a month ago.
As far as marketing, we are cleaning out bins as I speak. Give or take $8 is good enough for me. The end user can not sustain profitable margins much beyond that figure. Ethanol plants are reducing output now and only operating because they have some bushels being delivered on old contracts. When those run out, I suspect that they will not operate at a negative margin and just produce enough to keep the plant and employees operational.
It will be a long interesting survival mode for the livestock and ethanol producer until the 2013 crop becomes available.
Pardon my ignorance, but aren't those two sentences completely contradictory?
Is there really any truth to this? Serious question.
We were as dry as you guys through June and half of July, but we've been getting heavy rains about every other day, to at least once a day for the past week now. IT didn't take that long to recharge our atmosphere and I'm about 300 miles east of you.
As far as livestock goes I think we'll see prices decline slightly this fall because so many livestock producers will be sending more than usual to the markets because they don't want to feed them this winter due to the high corn prices. This will probably saturate the market short term but long term it's going to cause prices to go up because the livestock populations already are at a low and there will be even less in production next year after producers reduce their herd size.
I hate to think what this is going to do with the ethanol production. There is no profit to be made when corn gets this high in price.
I don't know, but I never understand waiting for a magical number. Right now, you can get close to 8 and I hauled a decent jag of $8 corn in the last week. From $8.00 to $8.25, you're only talking about 3% increase. If you aren't selling now, you should be waiting for $9. Just my opinion.
This...
Here's a picture of some ears I pulled yesterday. The good, the bad, and the ugly.
The good and the ugly ears are from the end rows. Was basically trying to get the best and worst. The middle ear is from out in the middle of the field and represents what I was seeing all throughout. I'm guessing 100 bu/acre on this piece, the rain will help a little. Unfortunately, 3 weeks ago, 180 bu/acre was a very real possibility. This was planted 4/26 in Madison County on 88 CSR. Took a look at some ears from a field that was planted 4/6, I'm guessing 170 bu/acre.
If any one has some questions about their MPCI coverage, feel free to PM me. Not trying to sell anything, but I was a company rep for 10 years. My biggest advice would be if you think your loss will be over 200k per crop/county, start getting your past 3 years production records in order.
Not accurate at all. The atmosphere could recharge itself in a couple of days (or less) if the pattern change was dramatic enough. As far as Iowa goes the pattern doesn't look to make a significant pattern change though, so while you may see some rain it still doesn't look to be drought busting through the Fall.
Soil moisture could be the bigger concern that takes much longer to recharge, I'm not an expert here though so I'll let someone else answer. But, when you are down 10" of rain over the course of 3 months it is going to take more than just 10" to recharge the soil moisture, etc...
ISU's very own Dr. Elwynn Taylor was on TV this AM and stated he sees signs the drought may be easing due to developments around the north pole and El Nino moving into La Nina. ( At least I think that's what he said) Hope he's right!
It's believable that you won't see it worsen and perhaps see some improvement as we near the end of summer, but I don't think you'll see the drought end until winter begins. Of course, I'm not a big long range forecaster, so good ol' Elwynn Taylor may be a better guy to listen too.
By the drought not ending until winter begins, do you mean close to normal precip this winter? That would at least be a start.
