Early season expectations

[Judoka]

Now that we've had a couple of meets what's everybody expecting out of the team the rest of the season? Here's what I'm thinking...

125: Looks like we're getting a qualifier, maybe picking up a win at NCAAs but probably 0-2. About what I expected if Larson was the guy. Boston is still an incomplete so I'll run with what I expect out of Larson.
133: Still thinking All American. Hall has had a slow start but is still on track, he hasn't really been tested yet. About what I expected
141: Looks like a qualifier, 2-2 at NCAAs with R12 as a peak. About what I expected
149: Incomplete. I expect R12 or AA and Moreno's one match made that look like it is still on the table.
157: Didn't know what to expect so defaulted to expecting an NCAA qualifier. I think we're still on track for that.
165: Bad start to the season for Weatherman. I was expecting him to be a high AA but now I'm thinking 2-2 at NCAAs with R12 as a peak. It is early though so hopefully he gets stuff figured out. Its a long season.
174: Was expecting R12 at least, with AA likely. I think that's still on the table for Weatherspoon but he hasn't had matches against guy in the 8-15 ranked range which I'd like to see in order to get a good gauge. We'll learn a lot more at Vegas in early December.
184: Incomplete, we really need Downey. If Pestano ends up going the whole season for us this will be a weak weight.
197: Also incomplete. Hopefully Harrington gets everything straightened out legally so he can take the mat for us this season, the sooner the better. I expect Harrington to qualify and be at least 2-2 in New York.
HWT: Was expecting to get a qualifier out of Smith. I think he's on track for that and maybe winning a match or two once he gets there, depending on the draw.

Overall as a dual team we're about where I expected until we get our guys at 149, 184, and 197. As a tournament team we're lower than I expected, mainly due to Weatherman's poor start. I think top ten in March is still on the table assuming Downey is eligible and Harrington is what we expect. If Downey and Harrington wrestle second semester I think we have a very good shot at qualifying all ten weights.

 

[buf87]

Downey has a rib injury from Farrell freestyle tourney in New York. Was holding it after 1st match, was listed as a med default, but then showed up to wrestle 2nd match. Needs to get healthy. Heard him mention about being healthy for Vegas, assuming Cliff Keen.

Everything is very tight lipped about Harrington, not sure what is going on.

Coaches were worried about Gabe wrestling 5 matches today, so rested him. Want him healthy for Iowa.

Was real happy with Dane. Had a crap 1st match, then won 6 straight to get 3rd. KJ was in his ear after that 1st match and rightfully so. He must have listened. Looked great after that.

John Meeks went after Long and kept coming. Lots of effort, but Long is a beast. Nothing left for rest of the tourney and it showed with a loss to Koethe and narrow victory over Boise State.

Quean have that tourney won and made a dumb move at the end that cost him the title. He was up 11-7 with not much time left and got in trouble. No he did not try a lateral drop.

John and Dante were pretty even in performance I thought and so were Logan and Nardo.

Joe Scanlan had a nice tourney also, beating Everard, the transfer to UNI. I think he was a NCAA qualifier last year.

 

[Judoka]

Can Downey go to Cliff Keen? I didn't think they allowed unnattached wrestlers. Looking back to last year's brackets I don't see any.

 

[buf87]

Not sure
Patrick Downey III ‏@ThePatDowney 17h17 hours ago Ames, IA no excuses! i willingly chose & wanted 2 scrap through this adversity today.. jus gotta get healthy & be

before Vegas!

 

[HGoat]

It is important to remember that it is a process. Focus needs to be on improving, not on W/L at this point in the season.

Having said that, I am disappointed with our performances at VT and at HNO.

 

[buf87]

I agree. It seems like some guys were not as tough as they needed to be at the end. I saw a lot of promise for early in the season and need to keep building on that.

 

[CyAGR]

I think realistic expectations for this team is 10th to 15th at nationals with dual losses to Iowa and OSU and possible losses to Oklahoma and UNI. If Moreno s shoulder holds up I think he will AA...maybe a homer pick on my part but I have high hopes for him. I am excited to see what Boston's ceiling is like with some matches under his belt and the same with Harrington. We have a ways to go but I think there is definitely upside to this team. I thought Pestano was a bright spot on Sunday and showed more than what I expected.

 

[cyfan9]

This is a decent dual team and going to be a very bad tournament team. Even if Hall places high (3-6), that is likely a ceiling of 15 points. I don't see many additional points as we sit now. Hopefully Downey and Harrington can be better than I expect. But I think it is going to be an ugly NCAA tournament.

Intermat does not have us in their Tournament rankings and I can't argue with them. FYI - Duke is 25th with 18 projected points.

 

[Judoka]

I think realistic expectations for this team is 10th to 15th at nationals with dual losses to Iowa and OSU and possible losses to Oklahoma and UNI. If Moreno s shoulder holds up I think he will AA...maybe a homer pick on my part but I have high hopes for him. I am excited to see what Boston's ceiling is like with some matches under his belt and the same with Harrington. We have a ways to go but I think there is definitely upside to this team. I thought Pestano was a bright spot on Sunday and showed more than what I expected.

I don't see a loss to UNI. They've got too many lineup holes and other than 125 the matchups will limit their best wrestlers from getting bonus points. And that is even if Tanner is still struggling and doesn't get a win.

 

[cyfan9]

I think realistic expectations for this team is 10th to 15th at nationals with dual losses to Iowa and OSU and possible losses to Oklahoma and UNI. If Moreno s shoulder holds up I think he will AA...maybe a homer pick on my part but I have high hopes for him. I am excited to see what Boston's ceiling is like with some matches under his belt and the same with Harrington. We have a ways to go but I think there is definitely upside to this team. I thought Pestano was a bright spot on Sunday and showed more than what I expected.

Can you please explain to me where you think we will come up with the team points to finish 10 - 15? Last year Virginia Tech placed 10th with 56 points and Northwestern scored 34.5 points at 15th. Remember we placed 14 (39 points) with a NCAA champion that scored 26.5 of those points. So the rest of the team only scored 12.5 points. I just don't see it.

 

[buf87]

I can't wait until we have our true lineup and healthy lineup in place, so we can see what we can do. Just don't know how soon that will happen.

125 - Boston or Larson (think both would make it to the Nationals)
133 - Hall (Definitely make it to Nationals and great chance to AA)
141 - Dante or Meeks (think both would make it to Nationals)
149 - Gabe - (Definitely makes it to Nationals and good chance to AA)
157 - Logan or Nardo - (Feeling better that either could make it to Nationals, both looked good most of yesterday)
165 - Tanner - (Definitely makes it to Nationals and good chance to AA, think weight cut is still a process)
174 - Lelund - (Definitely makes it to Nationals and good chance to get to Round 0f 16 or better)
184 - Downey (Feel good he makes it to Nationals, need to see him perform healthy, lots of potential upside at Nationals) I like Dane, doing a great job
197 - Harrington - (Will make Nationals, wish I knew more about when he will compete)
Hwt - Quean - (I think he has a good chance to get to Nationals)

We need to get everybody eligible and healthy and I think this team will be pretty darn good.
Patience is a B*t*h right now

 

[Land Grant]

We are a middle of the pack team without much room for improvement. I see very few of our guys being in contention for AA come March. I wish this weren't the case. I think the staff is now developing the wrestlers to something near their ceilings, but for many that mark fairly is distant from the top.

 

[cyfan9]

I can't wait until we have our true lineup and healthy lineup in place, so we can see what we can do. Just don't know how soon that will happen.

125 - Boston or Larson (think both would make it to the Nationals)
133 - Hall (Definitely make it to Nationals and great chance to AA)
141 - Dante or Meeks (think both would make it to Nationals)
149 - Gabe - (Definitely makes it to Nationals and good chance to AA)
157 - Logan or Nardo - (Feeling better that either could make it to Nationals, both looked good most of yesterday)
165 - Tanner - (Definitely makes it to Nationals and good chance to AA, think weight cut is still a process)
174 - Lelund - (Definitely makes it to Nationals and good chance to get to Round 0f 16 or better)
184 - Downey (Feel good he makes it to Nationals, need to see him perform healthy, lots of potential upside at Nationals) I like Dane, doing a great job
197 - Harrington - (Will make Nationals, wish I knew more about when he will compete)
Hwt - Quean - (I think he has a good chance to get to Nationals)

We need to get everybody eligible and healthy and I think this team will be pretty darn good.
Patience is a B*t*h right now

I agree with most of what you are putting out. But the problem is we don't have any lock AA's. And a great chance to AA and 2 good chances to AA and other qualifiers amounts to minimal points.

Not trying to be negative all the time, but this is just an unproven - at best - tournament team. I will enjoy the dual season as I think we should be a top 15 dual team.

 

[buf87]

Bonus points at Nationals are huge. We have been getting a lot of falls at Nationals.

I think Hall, Gabe, Tanner, Lelund, Downey and Harrington are all capable of making runs at Nationals.

Cautiously optimistic about Dante/Meeks and not enough info on Boston.

I do not think we are wrestling at that level now, but I expect and hope for it to show up soon.

 

[Judoka]

Can you please explain to me where you think we will come up with the team points to finish 10 - 15? Last year Virginia Tech placed 10th with 56 points and Northwestern scored 34.5 points at 15th. Remember we placed 14 (39 points) with a NCAA champion that scored 26.5 of those points. So the rest of the team only scored 12.5 points. I just don't see it.

Hall lost in the R12 to another returning AA. He'll score more this year
Moreno had a hurt shoulder and might as well have not competed. He'll score more this year
Weatherman crapped the bed, he'll score more this year.
Weatherspoon was hampered with an injury and didn't do well, he'll score more this year.

Larson and Smith didn't score anything for us last year, they'll likely score at least a couple points this year (and Boston might have more upside than Larson). And that's assuming Downey and Harrington don't score anything.

141 is really the only weight where we return someone and there's no reason to think there won't be more points scored.

 

[buf87]

I will try to be optimistic. It is much more enjoyable when focusing on the positive. But VT definitely tried my patience.

I saw a lot of good yesterday, but not a complete performance by anyone, including the champs

 

[buf87]

I don't see a loss to UNI. They've got too many lineup holes and other than 125 the matchups will limit their best wrestlers from getting bonus points. And that is even if Tanner is still struggling and doesn't get a win.

Also Cooper Moore is battling injuries again this year.

 

[cyclonenation5]

We are a middle of the pack team without much room for improvement. I see very few of our guys being in contention for AA come March. I wish this weren't the case. I think the staff is now developing the wrestlers to something near their ceilings, but for many that mark fairly is distant from the top.

I guess I just don’t see how you don’t think there’s much room for improvement. 184 and 197 are very obviously going to be upgrades by the second half of the season, if Gabe can get healthy at 149 he’s an AA candidate, and 125 is either going to be Larson (floor is a likely NCAA qualifier) or Boston, and I think Boston is at least as good as Kyle (better, in my mind). Also, 157 is between two freshmen who are only going to get better as the season goes on. I’m not saying we’re going to meet everyone’s expectations, and I’m probably looking at this through my ISU glasses, but I still see LOTS of opportunity for improvement, and I expect it.

 

[CyAGR]

I don't see a loss to UNI. They've got too many lineup holes and other than 125 the matchups will limit their best wrestlers from getting bonus points. And that is even if Tanner is still struggling and doesn't get a win.

Sorry I thought UNI was in the schedule before Christmas and I thought we may have to many guys out of the line up so I listed it as a possible loss. I agree that this is a win

 

[Land Grant]

Fair point. I guess we're talking about two different notions of improvement: one is incremental and the other is transformative. I agree that many of our guys can get better. I just don't think we have enough upper tier talent to top 10 or higher this year. Given ISU's wrestling history, that to me is limited improvement.

I guess I just don’t see how you don’t think there’s much room for improvement. 184 and 197 are very obviously going to be upgrades by the second half of the season, if Gabe can get healthy at 149 he’s an AA candidate, and 125 is either going to be Larson (floor is a likely NCAA qualifier) or Boston, and I think Boston is at least as good as Kyle (better, in my mind). Also, 157 is between two freshmen who are only going to get better as the season goes on. I’m not saying we’re going to meet everyone’s expectations, and I’m probably looking at this through my ISU glasses, but I still see LOTS of opportunity for improvement, and I expect it.