ESPN, Fox Open Discussions for Next Big 12 Deal

[Gonzo]

Sure, But there are a lot of schools that are not in the Big 10 or SEC that will be making less too, and there are a lot of schools that are not in the Big 12 that will or probably will be making less than the Big 12. Hell the ACC is stuck making what they are for 15 more years, we will be half way through our next contract by the time they get to renegotiate their current one.

I also am more optimistic that the numbers will come out higher than expected as they have basically every year, than lower. My belief is as the years go on and these contracts start paying and we have our other money added in etc, we are going to be more like 20-25M behind each year of the contract, rather than 40-50M. Considering we are 10-15M behind now, yes the gap will have widened but now as far as you doom and gloomers believe.

And then if have more expansion, that brings in more escalators to the contract, plus more of Yormark's ideas to increase the leagues revenues, we may actually see that gap shrink more.

A year ago those of you that thought the sky was falling said we would be lucky to get half what we were making, if not be only making G5 money. Now it comes out that we are getting a 75% increase in the Media contract alone and you still believe we are doomed. At some point you have to start believing we might be ok, sure we might not be the highest paid program in the country, but we never have been, OU, UT, Bama, Iowa have always made more, but we have consistently and considerably increased our income year over year, and have funded everything as well or better than some of those high paid programs. Hell Iowa has had a budget much larger than ours forever and still has had to cut sports, not pay contractors, and come in over budget year over year. They are well in the Red, just like a lot of the big money programs are. Yet we are not.

We are looking at probably a 10M+ increase per year, when many were worried we could lose that much or more per year. This should give us the confidence to restart several projects (like Hilton reno, etc.) that were put on hold until we knew our financial future. Then with the probable income from CyTown that can also give us a boost to close the gap to other programs.

Things look bright in Iowa State's Future, not gloomy. It's unfortunate some people don't see it.

So you're putting Big 12 per school payouts in the $70-$80 mill range on the back half of this deal? How are you coming up with that?

 

[2speedy1]

In the comments, he replied media only.

Thats what he wanted from ESPN and Fox and they were not even offering half that. Thats why they said they were hundreds of millions apart. He went to open market because they were not close to the value he thought they were.

He thinks they are far more valuable than they are, and his homer media writers believe it too.

 

[2speedy1]

So you're putting Big 12 per school payouts in the $70-$80 mill range on the back half of this deal? How are you coming up with that?

A page or two back I believe I explained it all, pretty simple to come to that range.

Right now with this:
we will start out in 2025:

Between 50-55M, plus additional money from new additions not getting full share. (we are expected to get in the upper 40s by the end of this contract in 24, this is a 9M+ increase.)
Increased Playoff, bump 10-15M = 65-70M as reportedly estimated, anywhere from 10-20M depending on how its broken down by conference and teams.
Yormark's ideas to increase revenue and sponsorships 5-10M = 75-80M
Then you have these:
Yearly increases of 3-5M also.
Built in escalators for expansion, that have already been reported.
Increases to NCAA tourn and Bowl money etc

Then on top of that the start of income from CyTown.

I think we will be fine. I have said all along we will be making 75M per give or take, by the time its all said and done, in like 2026ish after all the expansions etc is done.

 

[Gonzo]

A page or two back I believe I explained it all, pretty simple to come to that range.

Right now with this:
we will start out in 2025:

Between 50-55M, plus additional money from new additions not getting full share. (we are expected to get in the upper 40s by the end of this contract in 24, this is a 9M+ increase.)
Increased Playoff, bump 10-15M = 65-70M as reportedly estimated, anywhere from 10-20M depending on how its broken down by conference and teams.
Yormark's ideas to increase revenue and sponsorships 5-10M = 75-80M
Then you have these:
Yearly increases of 3-5M also.
Built in escalators for expansion, that have already been reported.
Increases to NCAA tourn and Bowl money etc

Then on top of that the start of income from CyTown.

I think we will be fine. I have said all along we will be making 75M per give or take, by the time its all said and done, in like 2026ish after all the expansions etc is done.

Much of that makes sense but aren't other conferences going to benefit from the same things and get the same bumps? The increased playoff bump, yearly increases, built in escalators for expansion, increases to NCAA tourney and bowl money, etc. Other conferences will see that stuff too, no? It sounded like you were saying that these are things that will narrow the gap for the Big 12, but for that to happen these things would only apply to the Big 12.

And isn't that $50-$55 mill with most of that stuff included, minus the expanded playoff? The new ESPN/FOX deal pays out an average of $32 mill. I know the newcomers don't get a full share, so if those 4 get a 70% share, that'd be an extra $5 mill/year for ISU and the other OGs, putting it at $37 mill/year from the media deal. So some of the stuff you mentioned has to be factored in already to get that extra $13-$18 mill/year bump up to $50-$55 mill/year, doesn't it?

 

[Jer]

A page or two back I believe I explained it all, pretty simple to come to that range.

Right now with this:
we will start out in 2025:

Between 50-55M, plus additional money from new additions not getting full share. (we are expected to get in the upper 40s by the end of this contract in 24, this is a 9M+ increase.)
Increased Playoff, bump 10-15M = 65-70M as reportedly estimated, anywhere from 10-20M depending on how its broken down by conference and teams.
Yormark's ideas to increase revenue and sponsorships 5-10M = 75-80M
Then you have these:
Yearly increases of 3-5M also.
Built in escalators for expansion, that have already been reported.
Increases to NCAA tourn and Bowl money etc

Then on top of that the start of income from CyTown.

I think we will be fine. I have said all along we will be making 75M per give or take, by the time its all said and done, in like 2026ish after all the expansions etc is done.

You’re making assumptions in each of your posts and passing as fact. Wait for the details to come out.

 

[Mr.G.Spot]

Jamie stated in his projections, key word is projections, that CyTown could throw off free cash flow of $200 million over the first 20 years when the project is built out. $50 million would go to the arts (CY Stephens Scheman) and $150 million to athletics.

 

[Gonzo]

You’re making assumptions in each of your posts and passing as fact. Wait for the details to come out.

His stuff may be right for all I know. I'm just seeing a disconnect between the $32 mill/year amount of the ESPN/FOX deal and the $50-$55 mill/year thing, which seems like he's using as a starting point. I will say that if Yormark's ideas for increased revenue and sponsorships amount to an extra $120 mill/year for the conference you'd better lock that man down for life.

 

[cygrads]

His stuff may be right for all I know. I'm just seeing a disconnect between the $32 mill/year amount of the ESPN/FOX deal and the $50-$55 mill/year thing, which seems like he's using as a starting point. I will say that if Yormark's ideas for increased revenue and sponsorships amount to an extra $120 mill/year for the conference you'd better lock that man down for life.

I think the$50mm started with Pollard's tweet. Post #594.

 

[Gonzo]

I think the$50mm started with Pollard's tweet. Post #594.

Got it. Looks like Pollard was saying the $50 mill/year was all-in, probably until the new CFP structure/payouts are determined.

 

[PickSix]

I’m sure Pollard’s “nearly 50 mil” includes an estimate of the rosiest future CFP distribution scenario. The Big 12 is in PR mode. When you’re in PR more, you factor in every potential stream of money you can to make the number as big as possible.

I’m not trying to be a Debbie downer. Yesterday was a major win for the conference that should be celebrated. I’m just saying that I wouldn't get my hopes up for any final number above 50 when all is said and done.

 

[AlaCyclone]

I’m sure Pollard’s “nearly 50 mil” includes an estimate of the rosiest future CFP distribution scenario. The Big 12 is in PR mode. When you’re in PR more, you factor in every potential stream of money you can to make the number as big as possible.

I’m not trying to be a Debbie downer. Yesterday was a major win for the conference that should be celebrated. I’m just saying that I would get my hopes up for any final number above 50 when all is said and done.

No doubt.
Take $50 mil to the bank and call it a good day!
Big Xii getting paid and eating baby.

 

[2speedy1]

You’re making assumptions in each of your posts and passing as fact. Wait for the details to come out.

Im making assumptions based on what has come out as details of the contract and details of what we are actually paid now. Its pretty easy to do math on that, then add the same estimates that are out there for the playoffs etc.

 

[Cydwinder]

I’m sure Pollard’s “nearly 50 mil” includes an estimate of the rosiest future CFP distribution scenario. The Big 12 is in PR mode. When you’re in PR more, you factor in every potential stream of money you can to make the number as big as possible.

I’m not trying to be a Debbie downer. Yesterday was a major win for the conference that should be celebrated. I’m just saying that I would get my hopes up for any final number above 50 when all is said and done.

I don’t think it includes future CFP at all. We got about 40M last year and we just bumped the media by 10M. That’s 50M without any CFP increase

 

[scyclonekid]

The 50 million number doesn’t include CFP as those numbers are not concrete yet, just projections. It will be interesting to see if we do expand and what Yormark comes up with when he said generating revenue other ways with music etc.

 

[2speedy1]

Much of that makes sense but aren't other conferences going to benefit from the same things and get the same bumps? The increased playoff bump, yearly increases, built in escalators for expansion, increases to NCAA tourney and bowl money, etc. Other conferences will see that stuff too, no? It sounded like you were saying that these are things that will narrow the gap for the Big 12, but for that to happen these things would only apply to the Big 12.

And isn't that $50-$55 mill with most of that stuff included, minus the expanded playoff? The new ESPN/FOX deal pays out an average of $32 mill. I know the newcomers don't get a full share, so if those 4 get a 70% share, that'd be an extra $5 mill/year for ISU and the other OGs, putting it at $37 mill/year from the media deal. So some of the stuff you mentioned has to be factored in already to get that extra $13-$18 mill/year bump up to $50-$55 mill/year, doesn't it?

No the 50-55M is just the bump from the new contract, with what we are getting in the current contract over the next couple years.

The other bumps I am including are things that are out there and are already included in other estimates to get the Big 10 to close to 100M in 2026 etc. Like the Playoff expansion, those are expected bumps in their future money estimates.

And if you have followed any of my posts I have laid all the Math out, As all the reporting has said:

currently our deal is 220M for 10 teams per year = 22M per year.

New deal is 380M for 12 teams = 31.6M if all were getting a full share, which is a 9.6M increase per year.
As you stated that means the original 8 get an extra 5M per year for several years so would be near 15M. But my calculations were only as if everyone receives equal, so really I was being conservative.

If the money for T3 is included in the 380M, that it still would mean at least a 10M bump for the original members until the new members are full members, because of the extra from the new members.

The Big 12 is expected to pay between 45-50M the next 2 years, was expected to pay 47M this year but with the covid year it paid 5M less. So even if you figure 45M being conservative for the end of this contract and add the 10M bump in 2025 for the new contract it is 55M.

Now the other increases I mention, are other increases Yormark has mentioned, and working on increases in things like sponsorships, and other deals to increase those types of revenues.

And yes if you look at other estimates out there for other conferences they estimate 15M+/- for the playoff expansion, they include increases for yearly bumps etc that will give them those yearly increases. When they say they will make 100M+ by the end of the contract they are talking with all the increases I am also talking about. Yearly bumps, bowl increases, NCAA increases etc, are all figured into those 80-100M Big 10 estimates, just like I am adding those estimates into my figure. And yes the ACC and PAC 12 will get them too, but what I am talking about is we arent sure what the PAC will be but the ACC is going to be 10-20M behind the Big 12 in a couple years, the and the SEC and B1G will be 25M+/- ahead of the Big 12. If the PAC is only able to generate the ACC rate those 2 will start really falling behind. With the Big 12 etc having a second contract negotiated and probably half over before the ACC gets to renegotiate their current one.

The Big 12 will establish itself as a solid 3rd place with a buffer of about 20M on either side if something doesnt happen to change that. With other creative revenue streams the Big 12 will be ok. And with things like CyTown Iowa State will be able to help supplement the income further, even though we have always been able to do more with less than most schools.

 

[scyclonekid]

Also what the GOR will look like. All in all delivered in the clutch indeed.

 

[2speedy1]

His stuff may be right for all I know. I'm just seeing a disconnect between the $32 mill/year amount of the ESPN/FOX deal and the $50-$55 mill/year thing, which seems like he's using as a starting point. I will say that if Yormark's ideas for increased revenue and sponsorships amount to an extra $120 mill/year for the conference you'd better lock that man down for life.

Here ya go You and @Jeremy seem to have missed all my posts with this. And say I am making this up. Somehow you only think the money from the Conference only comes from the ESPN/Fox deal.

See chart below, add 9 million to this number and tell me what you get.
keep in mind we were paid 22M for T1 and T2 because of covid I believe so that is why we got less, than chart.
either way cut it look at the number and plug in 22M for the 26M it brings us down to where we were. Then you plug in 31.2 million and recalculate it and tell me what you get, before you add in any possible increases to the rest of the numbers.

Then play around take away the 4m ESPN+, but add in the 5M for the irate 8.

Then go ahead and tell me there is no way and there is a disconnect. Tell me none of this adds up.

Any way you cut it, it adds up to 55M+/- before any other additions like playoff expansion, increases to bowl payouts, NCAA tournament increases, New sponsor deals, other new money deals Yormark makes. Etc.

 

[Gonzo]

No the 50-55M is just the bump from the new contract, with what we are getting in the current contract over the next couple years.

The other bumps I am including are things that are out there and are already included in other estimates to get the Big 10 to close to 100M in 2026 etc. Like the Playoff expansion, those are expected bumps in their future money estimates.

And if you have followed any of my posts I have laid all the Math out, As all the reporting has said:

currently our deal is 220M for 10 teams per year = 22M per year.

New deal is 380M for 12 teams = 31.6M if all were getting a full share, which is a 9.6M increase per year.
As you stated that means the original 8 get an extra 5M per year for several years so would be near 15M. But my calculations were only as if everyone receives equal, so really I was being conservative.

If the money for T3 is included in the 380M, that it still would mean at least a 10M bump for the original members until the new members are full members, because of the extra from the new members.

The Big 12 is expected to pay between 45-50M the next 2 years, was expected to pay 47M this year but with the covid year it paid 5M less. So even if you figure 45M being conservative for the end of this contract and add the 10M bump in 2025 for the new contract it is 55M.

Now the other increases I mention, are other increases Yormark has mentioned, and working on increases in things like sponsorships, and other deals to increase those types of revenues.

And yes if you look at other estimates out there for other conferences they estimate 15M+/- for the playoff expansion, they include increases for yearly bumps etc that will give them those yearly increases. When they say they will make 100M+ by the end of the contract they are talking with all the increases I am also talking about. Yearly bumps, bowl increases, NCAA increases etc, are all figured into those 80-100M Big 10 estimates, just like I am adding those estimates into my figure. And yes the ACC and PAC 12 will get them too, but what I am talking about is we arent sure what the PAC will be but the ACC is going to be 10-20M behind the Big 12 in a couple years, the and the SEC and B1G will be 25M+/- ahead of the Big 12. If the PAC is only able to generate the ACC rate those 2 will start really falling behind. With the Big 12 etc having a second contract negotiated and probably half over before the ACC gets to renegotiate their current one.

The Big 12 will establish itself as a solid 3rd place with a buffer of about 20M on either side if something doesnt happen to change that. With other creative revenue streams the Big 12 will be ok. And with things like CyTown Iowa State will be able to help supplement the income further, even though we have always been able to do more with less than most schools.

How does $380 mill/year divided by 12 = $50-$55 mill/year?

It actually looks like the new 4 members will be at 50% share, so that actually means an extra $8 mill/year for the OG 8. But still, that only = $40 mill/year from the ESPN/FOX media deal.

So what exactly do you mean when you say "No the 50-55M is just the bump from the new contract"

 

[Jer]

Here ya go You and @Jeremy seem to have missed all my posts with this. And say I am making this up. Somehow you only think the money from the Conference only comes from the ESPN/Fox deal.

See chart below, add 9 million to this number and tell me what you get.
keep in mind we were paid 22M for T1 and T2 because of covid I believe so that is why we got less, than chart.
either way cut it look at the number and plug in 22M for the 26M it brings us down to where we were. Then you plug in 31.2 million and recalculate it and tell me what you get, before you add in any possible increases to the rest of the numbers.

Then play around take away the 4m ESPN+, but add in the 5M for the irate 8.

Then go ahead and tell me there is no way and there is a disconnect. Tell me none of this adds up.

Any way you cut it, it adds up to 55M+/- before any other additions like playoff expansion, increases to bowl payouts, NCAA tournament increases, New sponsor deals, other new money deals Yormark makes. Etc.


View attachment 104844

I just said wait until things are finalized. I posted sourced estimates at 48-52mil over 2 months ago. I keep hearing about other possible revenue generating ventures as well but don’t think you can assume anything just yet.

 

[2speedy1]

How does $380 mill/year divided by 12 = $50-$55 mill/year?

It actually looks like the new 4 members will be at 50% share, so that actually means an extra $8 mill/year for the OG 8. But still, that only = $40 mill/year from the ESPN/FOX media deal.

So what exactly do you mean when you say "No the 50-55M is just the bump from the new contract"

You realize this is only the media money right? Or do you not realize the conference gets money from a lot of other sources? The 50-55M is from all sources, as in the big 12 paid 42Million last year, but only got 22Million from its Media deal!!!!! Is this that hard to understand?


Edit: So what I am saying is the 50-55M is the bump from the new contract, from our current one that we get paid a total amount of the mid 40Ms. 45M +10M for the new contract = 55M give or take for the details of the new members the T3 ESPN+ income etc. we will be in the 55M range. to start the contract before any other increases for expansion of the playoff etc.