Found this beauty of a prediction earlier

[Postel16]

So was checking our or ELO ranking on warrennolan.com when I saw their season predictions I had to refresh the page just to double check

Iowa State Cyclones Predicted Results & ELO College Football - WarrenNolan.com

The 2022 Iowa State Cyclones Predicted Results & ELO: predicted team schedule and results, predicted elo, predicted sos, today’s scores, ELO (live), record, conference record, post season record, strength of schedule, streaks and statistics.

www.warrennolan.com

vs SEMO W 39-20. 1-0
@ IA W 24-20. 2-0
vs Ohio W 38-14. 3-0
vs Baylor W 26-24. 4-0 (1-0)
@ Kansas W 45-17. 5-0 (2-0)
vs K St. W 27-20. 6-0 (3-0)
@ Tex W 35-31. 7-0 (4-0)
vs Ok W 32-31. 8-0 (5-0)
vs W.V. W 31-17. 9-0 (6-0)
@ Ok. St. L 21-27. 9-1 (6-1)
vs TT W 36-23. 10-1 (7-1)
@ TCU. W 38-24. 11-1 (8-1)

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

If we went 11-1, I’d **** my pants

 

[GTO]

If we went 11-1, I’d **** my pants

Agree.

That you would **** your pants.

 

[cytor]

If we went 11-1, I’d **** my pants

I would $hit YOUR pants, too!

 

[Dr.bannedman]

If we went 11-1, I’d **** my pants

agree. id eat it

 

[JM4CY]

 

[madguy30]

If we went 11-1, I’d **** my pants

Who in their right mind is going to be wearing any pants if ISU goes 11-1?

 

[dafarmer]

If we went 11-1, I’d **** my pants

I would even help to hose you off, of course I will wear a haz-mat suit.

 

[AuH2O]

Perhaps my favorite commercial of all time. For this reason alone Kmart deserves a massive bailout to stay operating.

 

[qwerty]

Why not?

 

[knowlesjam]

Honestly, I though ELO disbanded years ago...they rocked in Xanadu though...

 

[JM4CY]

Perhaps my favorite commercial of all time. For this reason alone Kmart deserves a massive bailout to stay operating.

I just shipped… mah bed!!!

 

[BCClone]

Who in their right mind is going to be wearing any pants if ISU goes 11-1?

 

[CascadeClone]

FWIW, the CFB victory model has ISU at 9-3. I figure that is more like best case personally.

They also have Iowa at 5-7. And Nebby at 10-2.

I think their model must not have anything about turnovers or special teams...

 

[NorthCyd]

FWIW, the CFB victory model has ISU at 9-3. I figure that is more like best case personally.

They also have Iowa at 5-7. And Nebby at 10-2.

I think their model must not have anything about turnovers or special teams...

Ok, what is the CFB victory model? I've seen that popping up on Twitter. Are they legit in any way?

 

[VeloClone]

That prediction is absolutely crazy. No way this team is losing a game!

 

[VeloClone]

They have OSU going 10-2 losing @ Baylor and @ OU.

They have OU going 11-1 with only loss obviously @ ISU.

They have Baylor going 10-2 losing @ OU and @ ISU.

 

[JM4CY]

They have OSU going 10-2 losing @ Baylor and @ OU.

They have OU going 11-1 with only loss obviously @ ISU.

They have Baylor going 10-2 losing @ OU and @ ISU.

They also have a meth problem

 

[CascadeClone]

Ok, what is the CFB victory model? I've seen that popping up on Twitter. Are they legit in any way?

"legit" - idk. their website is pretty decent. <cfbvictorymodel.com>

I looked at their last years predictions vs actuals, and it was OK, but idk if it was much better than just what anyone with decent knowledge would have predicted. I just looked at the overall records, not individual games.

iirc it was:
exact 25%
+/- 1 game 58%
+/- 2 games 83%
+/- 3 games 98%

Of the handful of outliers, you could see what happened. Like TAMU was -3 or -4, but their starting QB got hurt first game. ISU was -2, but had a ton of turnovers and close losses. Iowa was +4 (!) but they had a ton of positive turnover margin and close wins.

But as far as being like "wow, so accurate"... pretty sure I could get 6 of the Big12 within +/- 1 game, and all of them within +/- 3 games.

 

[Sigmapolis]