Getting to 6 wins??? TRAP GAMES
- Thread starter isukendall
- Start date
According to the massey ratings simulated season we're more likely to win 7 games than 6. Just click on more, then simulate season. https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3554&s=295489
Thoughts went to last year & WVU thinking it was going to take longer to get there than I liked. Now I think we were just 1 poorly planned & executed game on 1 side of the ball from beating UT & OU in back to back games. I still think we are giving UT more credit than they deserve. Think it was more tactics & strategy than talent & we couldn't handle mentally.
From coaching standpoint only 1 team really concerns me going forward & thats TCU. HC is best in league (D wizard) & OC is top probably as well. However if we revert backwards KU is not a foregone conclusion.
I'm not saying I expect 10 wins now. However, I'm thinking it's best to focus on the next game while knowing there is no game we can't win.
We have pretty much a guaranteed 6 wins. Now it's just a matter of getting to 7 or 8 wins.
Thanks, but last Saturday was 3 days ago. That was one small step. [Coach Talk
] I will be more convinced the process has turned the corner when we have a bigger margin of error and win games we play somewhat lousy in. Definite progress, but we have not arrived anywhere yet! Again thanks hairmad!!!!If the players believe this we will NOT win anymore games!
I get why some fans are so hung up on 6 wins, but I'm certainly not. When we win, I'm happy, when we lose, I'm not. 5>4..8>7.. and 6>5.. but realistically, I'd rather beat K State and some other conference teams than look forward to a trip to BFE and play Tulsa or Louisiana Tech. Sure it's cool to play the extra game.. but not much to hang your hat on.
So you would rather beat only KU and KSU than KU, TTU, and BU? That doesn't make much sense to me.
Understand from a fan perspective, but it is big for the program in a way most don't realize. The young guys get extra practice which is big for next year! Starters and most two deep will use this time to heal up and get minimal reps. The young pups will be practiced hard in prep for next season.
how did you interpret that? I said K-State over Tulsa. Rivalry game wins>winning a crappy bowl
You made it sound like you would rather win 5 games but beat K-State rather than make a bowl game but not win a rivalry game
The simulate season is for the remaining season. So add the expected 3.62 remaining wins to the three wins we already have and you get 6.62 expected wins. That means more likely 7 wins than 6.
https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3554&s=295489
We aren't the players, we are the fans. Coach CMC will have them focused and ready. There isn't anyone left on our schedule we can't beat. It stands to reason that we will win at a bare minimum, 3 more.
What I'm saying is that makes no sense based on the percentages given on the page before.
We have 1 sure win, 5 well below 50%, and 1 possible win.
I'm don't think you understand statistics, but to be fair I don't either. That second screen is based on a monte carlo simulation, which simulates the season 10,000 times and shows you the average result.
Think of it this way:
2 wins: We'll probably beat Ku and BU.
2 wins: Out of three 44% chances and two 30% chances. It's more likely to get two wins than just one. That's five chances for two wins
