http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...or-the-big-ten-sec-to-poach-the-big-12-again/
Is the league in danger?
Is the league in danger?
How stable is Big 12?
- Thread starter Jiub
- Start date
There's no way to know. Decision-makers in high places say whatever with seeming sincerity until the decision is made. It would surprise few, I think, if members with a good new home left.
These articles are fantasy. No one is leaving conference right now due to GOR.
Big 12 is stable. Texas and OU are making a lot of money. They will continue to make more money in the future. The conference that is in trouble is the Pac 12. Their network is generating virtually nothing.
Right now Big 12 should expand to 14 and when Pac 12 GOR is up in 8 years and the difference in payout between the two leagues is $20m or more, then pull 2 teams out of the Pac 12. I would go for Arizona and USC first, but Arizona State, UCLA, Oregon, Utah or Colorado all would be good targets.
Big 12 is stable. Texas and OU are making a lot of money. They will continue to make more money in the future. The conference that is in trouble is the Pac 12. Their network is generating virtually nothing.
Right now Big 12 should expand to 14 and when Pac 12 GOR is up in 8 years and the difference in payout between the two leagues is $20m or more, then pull 2 teams out of the Pac 12. I would go for Arizona and USC first, but Arizona State, UCLA, Oregon, Utah or Colorado all would be good targets.
Texas would have to give up the $15 million per year from the LHN to join the B1G. In addition Texas has given their GOR. Which means they lose another $30 million per year. They are not going to the B1G.
Big 12 actually has a pretty good TV contract. Add 4 teams and a CCG and the 10 original teams get an additional $10 million apiece while giving the new members a smaller share.
Shakiest conference is actually the Pac 12.
Big 12 actually has a pretty good TV contract. Add 4 teams and a CCG and the 10 original teams get an additional $10 million apiece while giving the new members a smaller share.
Shakiest conference is actually the Pac 12.
What is interesting is they have said nothing indicating they want out. Yes, they were linked to the Pac 12 6 years ago, but that is history. They would not touch the Pac 12 today. All of the talk about UT and OU wanting to leave is fan talk or media talk. All the talk about the conference being unstable is media talk or fans of other conferences that want the Big 12 to fail. If you examine the facts, you will see that there is little basis in their reasoning.
Big 12 is stable because of the GOR, the money that they are getting and the fact that UT and OU have not shown any plans to move.
Financially, the BIG 12 is third in conference distribution. The thing holding them back from the big 10 and sec is population related to a TV network. Also note that the BIG 12 is third with only first and second tier revenue where the big 10 and sec have third tier revenue included in their numbers. I think Texas is making the most than any other school in the nation due to their setup. Not sure about Oklahoma, but they may be second in TV revenue behind Texas. I thought I read Oklahoma gets 6-9 million for their third tier revenue.
Since college football is all about money, I think the conference is more stable than people want to believe.
Since college football is all about money, I think the conference is more stable than people want to believe.
While the grass always seems greener. I think that nearly every school that has left the big 12 with an acceptation of one. Has regretted it.
David Boren is going to be in his mid-80s when the GOR has expired, so IMO conference stability will depend on who his successor will be at OU. That change should be happening in the next couple of years.
This would be my guess. Where they have a few more bucks coming in. No other school has done anything to improve their national standing by leaving the big 12. In fact, I would say all have become less relevant nationally, but, aTm is the only one that felt so threatened by UT, that anywhere else was better than the Big 12.
EDIT: sorry was trying to quote enisthemenace frm above, but I guess not working on iPhone or I'm an idiot. Both are equally possible.
EDIT: sorry was trying to quote enisthemenace frm above, but I guess not working on iPhone or I'm an idiot. Both are equally possible.
I think eventually the big12 will sizzle out after Texas doesn't extend the gor in 8 years or whatever it is. You could honestly argue that the only reason they are expanding now is to get as much money as they can before Texas and Oklahoma leave to join what will be the 4 super conferences. You are never going to have a truly stable conference with the way its setup now. We just have to hope the football gets a lot better and try to get into a super conference which is slim to none.
USC vs West Virginia.
It's for the student athletes, damnit!!
Can't wait till this is all redone in a logical manner. Only problem is, Iowa State won't make the cut.
Texas would have to give up the $15 million per year from the LHN to join the B1G. In addition Texas has given their GOR. Which means they lose another $30 million per year. They are not going to the B1G.
Big 12 actually has a pretty good TV contract. Add 4 teams and a CCG and the 10 original teams get an additional $10 million apiece while giving the new members a smaller share.
Shakiest conference is actually the Pac 12.
From what I have been seeing in looking at possible expansion candidates, is that Iowa State has a lot of things going for it.. The only thing Iowa State lacks is a high population and a lack of real success long term in football. We have a football stadium that holds over 60,000 and a passionate fan base that fills the seats. We have solid basketball program. We are an AAU member which indicates academic excellence.
Iowa State is actually a better program than the ones the Big 12 is considering to expand to.
Big 12 actually has a pretty good TV contract. Add 4 teams and a CCG and the 10 original teams get an additional $10 million apiece while giving the new members a smaller share.
Shakiest conference is actually the Pac 12.
From what I have been seeing in looking at possible expansion candidates, is that Iowa State has a lot of things going for it.. The only thing Iowa State lacks is a high population and a lack of real success long term in football. We have a football stadium that holds over 60,000 and a passionate fan base that fills the seats. We have solid basketball program. We are an AAU member which indicates academic excellence.
Iowa State is actually a better program than the ones the Big 12 is considering to expand to.
Only way the conference blows up if all 10 teams land in a P5 conference - if not the lawsuits of damages would go on for years
Why do people keep thinking that Texas is going to leave when they have never at any time shown any indication that they are going to leave? I don't understand it.
And what makes you think PAC 12 is more stable? And why do people think that 4 16 team conferences are actually ever going to happen. The 4x16 concept is a fantasy made up media to try to fit everything into a nice structure. It is not based in reality.
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I know Colorado athletics is sucking hard in the Pac-12, but their admins were wanting to the Pac-12 for a long time. New administrators or something there, haven't been following them since they left really.
Frankly, Colorado would be about half way down the list of teams I would try to get out of the Pac 12. Pac 12 is not a move for about 8 years. You expand to 14 teams now. Then the money gap widens over the next 8 years. Once the GOR is up, then you poach Pac 12 teams. They will be #5 in money by a wide gap. And even though geography has been thrown out the window, I still don't see any of the other 3 taking Pac 12 teams. The only option for any of them if they want to move is the Big 12. That is why you need to expand now and extend the GOR to show that you are in a position of strength pull teams out of Pac 12 then.
