Iowa's offense has been much better in the three games since Fran shuffled the line-up (inserting Clemmons, removing McCabe, and shifting everyone else "up" or "over" a position). This game will come down to which trend so far this season holds true: Iowa not being able to defend against adequate teams, or Iowa State turning the ball over too much. Which ever team is able to reverse the course of those trends wins this one by 3-8 points IMO.