Iowa State +3.5 vs Baylor

[BillBrasky4Cy]

The line opened today at Baylor -3.5 and has swung all the way to ISU -2.5. That's a whopping SIX point swing towards the Cyclones on the first day of betting. What that means is that there's a lot of money being put on Iowa State in this match up.

I'm not an expert on sports betting, but you don't see that kind of one-sided betting this early unless the so-called "sharps", the people who bet regularly and tend to win more than they lose, are pretty sure about a game. You don't put down that kind of money unless you're reasonably confident.

It's important to note that this isn't a game with a lot of national significance where you can expect a bunch of people to bet early without really knowing what they're doing. It's also highly unlikely that betting from Cyclone fans is the reason for the point swing. ISU doesn't exactly have an over confident fan base and most of us see this as a huge game that could go either way. This is clearly a case of the sharps seeing the line and believing that ISU was undervalued.

The wise guys absolutely pounced on the Baylor -3.5.

 

[SolarGarlic]

Baylor fans on Twitter seem underwhelmed with their performance against Rice. It was 21-13, but I'm not sure the game was ever in doubt. I'm a little worried about the heat, and I hope Heacock has some adjustments up his sleeve after last season. We were fortunate to only give up 14. I'm confident we will score.

 

[Rural]

I hope its made clear to the officiating crew the **** this Baylor team tried to pull last year, and its made clear to our players to keep their heads and not retaliate.

May not be raping women anymore, but they have continued the legacy of dirty play under Rhule.

100% guarantee on happening again.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Or gambling is legal in Iowa and fans in this state have put big money down. Frankly, I may have to go out to Altoona and get my log in to put money on Baylor. It will ensure that ISU wins handily.

Baylor -3.5 was a Vegas line so the bets placed at the local Iowa casinos are completely independent and have their own lines.

 

[isuno1fan]

Brewer just murdered us last year until he was kicked out. Gonna be tough.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

**** Baylor! CMC had this game circled since last year. Gonna be a statement win by the Clones!

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Brewer just murdered us last year until he was kicked out. Gonna be tough.

Murdered us at the tune of 14 points...

 

[isufbcurt]

Murdered us at the tune of 14 points...

Exactly. If he murdered us, what do you call what we did to them?

 

[Al_4_State]

Brewer was starting to heat up. I think we had an answer, but he was playing better in the second half.

One thing to remember is how much of this game we played w/out DM and still ran the ball fairly well.

 

[SCarolinaCy]

“Worried” was maybe a bad choice of words.

In the pre-season, Baylor was the toughest out, I thought, other than Oklahoma for us. Our inability to prevent massive QB scrambles so far this season has not lessened that thought process for me.

I like blitzes. Even if we don't get a sack, a hurry often disrupts the play.

I just don't get our blitzes. Seems haphazard. Guys come in very late from a far side, after the play is virtually over.

 

[psychlone99]

Brewer was starting to heat up. I think we had an answer, but he was playing better in the second half.

Yeah, I was starting to feel very uncomfortable while Brewer was still in that game. I'm not sure we win it if he doesn't get ejected. He's the only reason I'm nervous about this game. We haven't exactly contained mobile QBs yet this year. If we find a way to limit him, I think we could win comfortably.

 

[isufbcurt]

I like blitzes. Even if we don't get a sack, a hurry often disrupts the play.

I just don't get our blitzes. Seems haphazard. Guys come in very late from a far side, after the play is virtually over.

A delayed blitz by Azuna got to ULM's QB and our corner blitzes have been very effective.

 

[cyrocksmypants]

I like blitzes. Even if we don't get a sack, a hurry often disrupts the play.

I just don't get our blitzes. Seems haphazard. Guys come in very late from a far side, after the play is virtually over.

Delayed blitzes are absolutely effective, but it just seems like all of our blitzes this year have been delayed blitzes. Which kind of eliminates the surprise.

 

[SolarGarlic]

I like blitzes. Even if we don't get a sack, a hurry often disrupts the play.

I just don't get our blitzes. Seems haphazard. Guys come in very late from a far side, after the play is virtually over.

Our execution hasn't been great. Even when our blitzes do work, we've been really bad about actually getting the QB to the ground. Seems like Johnson, McDonald, and Enyi have whiffed on a few relatively easy sacks.

Our corner blitzes have been good, and Eisworth at star always causes problems when he comes.

 

[stateofmind]

**** Baylor! CMC had this game circled since last year. Gonna be a statement win by the Clones!

Boy, that picture tells a story doesn't it? The officer won't even look him in the eye.

 

[ricochet]

Baylor -3.5 was a Vegas line so the bets placed at the local Iowa casinos are completely independent and have their own lines.

Are they really separate? It seems like William Hill would keep their lines somewhat consistent across all their sports books. If they are separate I wonder if it is due to licensing or regulation rather than business reasons.

 

[isufbcurt]

Are they really separate? It seems like William Hill would keep their lines somewhat consistent across all their sports books. If they are separate I wonder if it is due to licensing or regulation rather than business reasons.

when do the William Hill lines show up in the app for next weeks games?

 

[isuno1fan]

Yeah, I was starting to feel very uncomfortable while Brewer was still in that game. I'm not sure we win it if he doesn't get ejected. He's the only reason I'm nervous about this game. We haven't exactly contained mobile QBs yet this year. If we find a way to limit him, I think we could win comfortably.

Yeah, I was starting to feel very uncomfortable while Brewer was still in that game. I'm not sure we win it if he doesn't get ejected. He's the only reason I'm nervous about this game. We haven't exactly contained mobile QBs yet this year. If we find a way to limit him, I think we could win comfortably.

This. Brewer was a HANDFUL and we likely lose if he doesn’t get kicked out. Anyone saying otherwise didn’t watch the game.
When I walked out, I remember saying to myself we got damn lucky with the ejection and next year at Waco is gonna be a ***** to win with Brewer having probably circled this one too.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Brewer was starting to heat up. I think we had an answer, but he was playing better in the second half.

He’s good.
But I also think his heating up was due to a calculation by the staff up 28-7 to start the fourth. A lot of rope a dope.

 

[somecyguy]

The issue with Baylor's offense and Brewer in particular, is that it's built to force patience on the offense and most in the conference don't have it. But Brewer last time was content to take those short routes and move down the field. I'm sure Heacock knows that too, so I'm hoping he has something in store to mix it up, if Brewer does that again.