Just last week, this question was asked and it was 3.2% according to the same site that now lists ISU at 4.5% chance. That's a 41% increase (from 3.2 to 4.5). It's improvement.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/iowa-state-cyclones/projections
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/iowa-state-cyclones/projections