Jackson Paveletzke commits

[Sigmapolis]

Because I'm really high on Pav, I wanted to look into this a bit. On the surface, freshman AJ Green is a really good comp.

Just raw numbers, Pav went 15/4/3, Green went 15/2/3. Pav was more efficient as a shooter, but especially inside the arc where he made 54% vs. 46% for Green. Also was about 4 points better from three 39% vs 35%. Green was definitely more of a volume shooter from 3, though, taking quite a few more than Pav - 8 threes per 40 for AJ vs. 4.3 for Pav.

That's one of the things that stands out in the numbers, Pav did a lot more work inside the arc than you'd expect just looking at him in the lineup or something. His free throw rate would have led ISU this year (not taking into account Eli or Conrad). He made more than anyone on ISU took this year!

Back to the Green comp, Pav and Green had similar assist and turnover rates, similar rebounding rates. Overall though, most any attempt at an overall offensive metric really likes Pav. Higher BPM and OBPM, higher ORTG, (much) higher PER. Granted, MVC > SoCon, so who can really say. My guess is that Pav likely does more from outside the arc this year than he did in the SoCon, but who knows. He played well against TA&M and LSU, didn't seem like they immediately took that part of his game away.

Does this mean anything? IDK, but it does make me feel even better about my thinking that Pav has a really high ceiling as a college player, and I'm stoked that's at ISU.

The Southern Conference last season was -4.60 by SRS on Sports Reference.

The MVC was -0.69 (nice) during Green's freshman year.

Northern Iowa on KenPom that season faced...

130th most difficult schedule
95th most difficult opposing defensive slate

Wofford last season faced...

226th most difficult schedule
243rd most difficult opposing defensive slate

In aggregate, Green played a higher level of competition night in and night out in the MVC compared to Paveletzke in the Southern Conference. But against high-level competition...

Paveletzke dropped 19 on LSU and 22 on Texas A&M. His weakest P6 game was for six against Vanderbilt. Green only had one P6 game as a freshman, and he was bad against Iowa...

31 minutes
1/4 from two
0/4 from three
2 assists
1 turnover
3 rebounds
-7.0 net rating in a game the Panthers lost by 23

https://barttorvik.com/box.php?muid=Northern+IowaIowa12-15&year=2019

 

[clone52]

I agree completely...however, in finding this offense...how does it impact our defense? Honest question...I don't follow recruiting beyond what I read on this board.

TJs defense depends all on smarts and effort. Recruiting services aren't going to know the smarts.

 

[clone52]

Very solid team next year! Now a 6-11 dude would cover all the bases. I think it is overly optimistic to count on Jones and Ward down low.

Gotta get another guard/wing. Plenty of mix and match post options

 

[ClonesTwenty1]

This was a good get offensively. Great passer as well. Good court vision.

 

[demoncore1031]

We desperately needed a player with an offensive game like this kid has. Huge pick up!

 

[WizardKelly]

He has on ISU shorts in the skinny pic…is this muscle gain seriously just since he’s been at ISU??? What the heck where they doing at temple??????

 

[Cyclonepride]

He has on ISU shorts in the skinny pic…is this muscle gain seriously just since he’s been at ISU??? What the heck where they doing at temple??????

Probably. Guy has had a whole lot of time to rehab and focus on his physical health, and probably channeled his competitive energy into that.

 

[intrepid27]

They really don’t seem too difficult.

Mom-sill-o-vich
Pav-al-eetz
In-dra-cite-iss

In-dra-cite-iss sounds like a disease you would pick up after swimming in Missouri farm pond.

 

[Nor'MidWester]

Probably. Guy has had a whole lot of time to rehab and focus on his physical health, and probably channeled his competitive energy into that.

Didn't have a whole season to lose muscle mass, I think players lose a good amount since they aren't weight training as hard during the season.

 

[NoCreativity]

He has on ISU shorts in the skinny pic…is this muscle gain seriously just since he’s been at ISU??? What the heck where they doing at temple??????

Looks like he's been on TJ's bulk program since he got to Ames.

 

[Cyclad]

In-dra-cite-iss sounds like a disease you would pick up after swimming in Missouri farm pond.

Or just visiting the state

 

[dunar]

Recruiting services aren't going to know the smarts.

There is at least one service out there that measures the "mental game" - without going into too much detail, I only know about it because I work there

 

[moores2]

He has on ISU shorts in the skinny pic…is this muscle gain seriously just since he’s been at ISU??? What the heck where they doing at temple??????

you tend to work on your upper body when you have an injury like an Achilles tear.

 

[enisthemenace]

you tend to work on your upper body when you have an injury like an Achilles tear.

While likely true, you can’t ignore the physical difference like you did. It’s staggering, honestly, and the question you quoted is valid. What the the hell were they (not) doing at Temple?

 

[Statefan10]

While likely true, you can’t ignore the physical difference like you did. It’s staggering, honestly, and the question you quoted is valid. What the the hell were they (not) doing at Temple?

The nutrition program and weight program are likely much better here, but it's also probably the time and dedication he had to transform his body.

 

[CyHans]

Very solid team next year! Now a 6-11 dude would cover all the bases. I think it is overly optimistic to count on Jones and Ward down low.

Agree we need another big man. Anyone 6'8" and up who is strong and athletic (with basketball skills of course) would fit the bill IMO.

 

[NebrClone]

The nutrition program and weight program are likely much better here, but it's also probably the time and dedication he had to transform his body.

All that helps, but in the picture on the left he is totally relaxed and in the picture on the right he is totally flexing his muscles. Look at the hands. He has added muscle, but the pictures are deceiving on how much.

 

[Statefan10]

All that helps, but in the picture on the left he is totally relaxed and in the picture on the right he is totally flexing his muscles. Look at the hands. He has added muscle, but the pictures are deceiving on how much.

Yes that's true and thats how lots of people do transformation photos because it makes the transformation look that much better. Either way that doesn't negate the fact that he put on probably 20 pounds of muscle. The definition of every part of his upper body is substantial compared to the left and that has nothing to do with him not flexing and being relaxed in the first photo.

 

[clone52]

There is at least one service out there that measures the "mental game" - without going into too much detail, I only know about it because I work there

I'm sure they try, but there probably isn't a way to measure how well a player can play the specific defense Iowa State is trying to play until they actually play it. So much of it is positioning and being in the right spot at the right time and if one person is off, it can mess the whole thing up. Specifically I think of Tre Jackson who always seemed like a really good on ball defender, but he was out of position in our defense a ton. I think its also a reason Robert Jones plays more than most people think he should. He's almost always in the right spot at the right time. He might not get the steals or blocks, but how many times as he been a brick wall on a drive that led to either a bad shot or an attempted kickout that gets stolen. At times it felt like 50% of Lipsey's steals involved Jones in one way or another.

Even this clip. https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/35821157
The Baylor defender gets a step on Lipsey, see's Holmes and Jones ready to pounce and tries to step back and crossover leading to a steal.

 

[cyclones500]

We're approaching or are at double digits for kids that Bucky fans shake their head about as they have great stints or careers in Ames.

If we count transfer-in (not just HS), going back 15 seasons or so.