I agree, 6 is not out of the question for Baylor. However, I don't see Baylor winning any more than that. As someone else said, ISU hung 41 on Tech last year with a offence that ranked 90th in the nation for scoring. ISU actually had a wider margin of victory against Tech than Baylor did.
I said that 6 isn't out of the question, but neither is 4 wins. Baylor's problem this year is that they have no defense and the offense took a big hit. ISU scored more against Baylor in regulation than anyone else last year except Texas Tech.
If you figure that Baylor's personal losses on offense will result in even 10 points per game decrease. That is still very respectable average. At that rate, Baylor would have only won 5 games last year. Hell, if Baylor had scored 4 points lower Baylor would have only won 6 games in the regular season.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Baylor miss out on another Bowl this season. I'm not saying that Briles isn't going to keep Baylor on the right track, but this is obviously a rebuilding year.
I agree with your 4-6 range. Their home-away schedule really doesn't favor them much and Tech is on a neutral field in Arlington. They should be able to sneak out of non-con with 3 wins (toughest game should be SMU), but then they have tough going through the Big 12 with their toss-up games on the road similar to our schedule last year. Kansas at home may be their closest to a sure thing win but who knows.