Men's basketball expectations vs. fan longevity, a conversation

[CYDJ]

Note: (I am unable to figure out the proper way to insert a pic or PDF and I can't figure out how to get to HTML here, so please see the attached pic for thre table in a readable format. Thanks, CYDJ)

A response by Stewo in another post spurred a question I am not sure has been discussed / explored here yet , or at least recently.

Is there a chance that part of the split in ISU fan base expectations has to do with some people remembering what being "Iowa State" meant "back in the day" vs. what "Iowa State" has meant in the recent past? The premise here is that what people expect might directly correlate to what they have experienced in the their "ISU life." I would like to start a conversation about what you expect and when you became an ISU fan.

Stewo showed a great reminder of the results from the Johnny years. Johnny, is mostly revered by our fan base, but his overall record was rather average. It WAS a huge improvement to what came directly before it, but it would not be acceptable to much of the fan base today.

I segmented his results by splitting out the 4 year period where he was rebuilding. 80-84 culminated in an NIT birth. Those 4 years were a steady improvement, but probably not what most people remember as the golden Johnny years. Remember also, it was harder to achieve the NCAA Tournament prior to 1985 as there were only 48 teams selected. So here are Johnny's results broken out by total and after the NCAA "breakthrough" / NCAA Tourney expansion AND then all the coaches since.

Key:
Total% - Total winning percentage
Big% - Big 8 or Big 12 conference winning percentage
BigChamp% - Percentage of years ISU won the Big 12 or Big 8 season championship
BigTChamp% - Percentage of years ISU won the Big 12 or Big 8 tournament championship
NCAA% - Percentage of years ISU was in the NCAA Tournament
Aveplace% - Average conference placement as a percentage from bottom (0%) to top (100%)

Total% Big% BigChamp% BigTChamp% NCAA% Aveplace%
Johnny Total (80-94) (14) 52% 40% 00% 00% 43% 40%
After BThrough (84-94) (10) 55% 43% 00% 00% 60% 44%
Floyd (94-98) (4) 63% 50% 00% 25% 75% 47%
Eustachy (98-03) (5) 63% 53% 40% 20% 40% 48%
Morgan (03-06) (3) 59% 46% 00% 00% 33% 44%
McDermott (06-10) (5) 46% 28% 00% 00% 00% 17%
Hoiberg (10-15) (5) 67% 56% 00% 40% 80% 58%
Prohm (15-Present) (4) 61% 49% 00% 50% 75% 54%

With no statistical significance here, I made what looked to be relatively higher than average numbers in each category red. We have steadily been getting "better" it seems. We have had more success in getting to the NCAA's and Big 12 Tournament championship games in the past 9 or 10 years.

I didn't intend for this to be a comment on the coaches or teams and don't really want to pick apart why they had lower or higher totals, etc. I'm just using the coaches as "eras" in an effort to determine if frame of reference has anything to do with your expectations of ISU basketball.

Do the old fogies who remember Johnny's years (and/or before) believe it is OK to make the tourney only 50% of the time, to NEVER win a conference championship or conference tourney championship? And likewise, do the whippersnappers only remember the recent success and conference tourney championships and wonder why we are not in the final four more often? Or maybe that only Hoiberg can do great things at ISU, when they might have been in diapers when Eustachy was crushing the Big 12? If you got started in the McDormott years and Hoiberg came along and pulled you from basketball h___, do you expect that is a regular jump that should be taken about every 5 years?

Talk amongst yourselves. Let us know your expectations and when you became an aware Cyclone Basketball fan. "I was a fan at 5 because I had a cyclone cap" is not really "aware". Try to be accurate with when your basketball awareness really happened, either year or era. ;>)

BTW, if you spot any statistical inaccuracies, just comment and I'll correct them. I looked everything up and did a quick spreadsheet, it's not likely to be perfect.

 

[Gunnerclone]

i think our basketball program is at the most difficult point for fans to come to grips with. We’re at the point where the next jump up is the hardest to make. I hate it when people use them football team to make basketball points. It’s much easier to be where the football team is from a fan standpoint.

It’s like at a job where you have a ton of room to grow in your current pay band. That’s where the football program is.

The basketball program is at the top of a pay band where the only only option for a big jump is to get a promotion and those merit raises aren’t as big as the guy at the bottom of the pay band and there’s a ton of competition for the promo.

 

[srjclone]

i think our basketball program is at the most difficult point for fans to come to grips with. We’re at the point where the next jump up is the hardest to make. I hate it when people use them football team to make basketball points. It’s much easier to be where the football team is from a fan standpoint.

It’s like at a job where you have a ton of room to grow in your current pay band. That’s where the football program is.

The basketball program is at the top of a pay band where the only only option for a big jump is to get a promotion and those merit raises aren’t as big as the guy at the bottom of the pay band and there’s a ton of competition for the promo.

Boom. Spot on. /thread. (jk, don't /thread, I think this could be a good discussion)

 

[Stewo]

IMO, it's about maintaining our current position while fighting to get to the next rung of the ladder. Like Gunner said, it's a tough, tough step to take and will take many years to do. Prohm has the program in a great spot right now in a very tough league. I think most people forget where we were last season compared to this season. That's a hell of a coaching job. Sure, he had his fair share of blunders, but he's been a HC for less than 10 years and no more than 4 years at any given location. We all better hope and pray Steve decides to stick around for the long-haul.

 

[kcbob79clone]

I was at ISU pre-Johnny where I tell everyone the football team won as many games as the bball team, without ever actually looking at records.

So my expectation is tempered, we will never be considered a blue blood and I consider this past year a success when you don't play on the first day of the Big12 Tournament and you win the dang thing and get into the NCAA tournament.

"This is March" means if you are there anything could happen.

 

[Gunnerclone]

IMO, it's about maintaining our current position while fighting to get to the next rung of the ladder. Like Gunner said, it's a tough, tough step to take and will take many years to do. Prohm has the program in a great spot right now in a very tough league. I think most people forget where we were last season compared to this season. That's a hell of a coaching job. Sure, he had his fair share of blunders, but he's been a HC for less than 10 years and no more than 4 years at any given location. ya We all better hope and pray Steve decides to stick around for the long-haul.

I think a good comparison or program to look at is Wisconsin. They built that program up by just getting to the tourney every year and then finally after like 15 straight years in they made a final four. We have a lot of work to do and a lot more years of consistency to put in just to be considered a “Sweet 16” baseline level program.

 

[CyCrazy]

I like where we are headed. CSP is the guy and has proven he can recruit. We should always be in the tournament and make a run here and there. I would love to win the regular season again.

 

[BoxsterCy]

Awareness: 1969/1970 as a freshman attending games in the Armory. Bill Cain and company in that little box of a venue may still be as jacked up as I have been to attend games in my life.

Loss of Awareness: Ken Trickey and that 3-24 season in 1976.

Awareness Restoration: Jeff Grayer and Barry Stevens era.

Heightened Awareness: Attending game in Waco to clinch our first ever real Big 12 title in 2000.

Awareness Almost Lost Again: McDoormat

Awareness Rejuvenation: Everything Post-McDoormat except that UAB game.

NCAA 80% of the time
Sweet Sixteen: 20%
Elite Eight: 10%
Conference Title: no expectation, want to see another though so let's say 10%.
Big 12 Tourney: Fun and all but not big on my expectation list.

 

[CYDJ]

i think our basketball program is at the most difficult point for fans to come to grips with. We’re at the point where the next jump up is the hardest to make. I hate it when people use them football team to make basketball points. It’s much easier to be where the football team is from a fan standpoint.

It’s like at a job where you have a ton of room to grow in your current pay band. That’s where the football program is.

The basketball program is at the top of a pay band where the only only option for a big jump is to get a promotion and those merit raises aren’t as big as the guy at the bottom of the pay band and there’s a ton of competition for the promo.

Great observation, when did you start following the clones though? What era or year. That's the second part of the conversation.

 

[CYDJ]

I like where we are headed. CSP is the guy and has proven he can recruit. We should always be in the tournament and make a run here and there. I would love to win the regular season again.

What is your awareness year or era? That is what I'm hoping to check here. It's like a survey of sorts. Your responses may cause good conversation.

 

[CYDJ]

IMO, it's about maintaining our current position while fighting to get to the next rung of the ladder. Like Gunner said, it's a tough, tough step to take and will take many years to do. Prohm has the program in a great spot right now in a very tough league. I think most people forget where we were last season compared to this season. That's a hell of a coaching job. Sure, he had his fair share of blunders, but he's been a HC for less than 10 years and no more than 4 years at any given location. We all better hope and pray Steve decides to stick around for the long-haul.

So Stewo, you caused me to make this thread, when is your awareness year or era?

 

[Gunnerclone]

Great observation, when did you start following the clones though? What era or year. That's the second part of the conversation.

I became aware and understanding of what a good season vs a poor season was during the late Orr years. Thigpen, Big Vic, Hurl, Brian pearson, Morgan Wheat was a big hero of mine coming from WDM Valley then on to the “Upper classman Fred teams” with Loren and Julius etc were my formative teams. I was 10 or 11 in that era doing bracket pools for the first time.

 

[CyCrazy]

What is your awareness year or era? That is what I'm hoping to check here. It's like a survey of sorts. Your responses may cause good conversation.

I grew up an Illinois fan (whole family went there). Liked ISU because F Iowa as I grew up. Been a diehard since 2001 when I got to Ames. Is this what you are getting at? Pre this I was a quasi fan pretty much.

 

[Stewo]

So Stewo, you caused me to make this thread, when is your awareness year or era?

Floyd era, moreso towards the end.

 

[ImJustKCClone]

Awareness during the Johnny years (We moved here in 1983, I was employed by ISU in 1984). Because I was busy with kids in sports and the internet wasn't a thing yet I didn't really follow much until the late 90s. And then it was mostly because my son hung out with Fred's brother. After kids were out of the house and we weren't going to all of their events, we bought FB season tickets and MBB "mini-packs" in 2000, which later turned into MBB corner balcony cheap seats. So, we came in with Larry + Marcus & Jamaal & later Wayne + Curtis & Will & Rahshon. Started with super exciting play that dwindled post LE and nearly disappeared altogether with GM.
I consider this past season a good season. That's based on the years between Larry & Fred. Great would have probably continued another game or three. But after the nearly ten year crapshow we had, a 23 win season, hardware from the Big 12, and an invitation to dance constitute at least good to me.

 

[enisthemenace]

I was aware during the mid-Orr years, but started forming my own, fan expectations during the Floyd years, as that is when I started paying for school in Ames. Felt that was the right time to start expecting something

 

[Cat Stevens]

What is your awareness year or era? That is what I'm hoping to check here. It's like a survey of sorts. Your responses may cause good conversation.

Go back to the 70’s.

I’ve seen bad basketball. I was over McDermott after his second year, so it’s not blind optimism.

I just hate how it’s more than basketball with a lot of these folks.

 

[cyfanatic13]

I remember going to games in the Morgan/McDermott years but didn’t really become a true fan til my high school years with Hoiberg. This isn’t exactly what the thread about but I think the biggest thing with ISU fans (especially around my age) is they tend to romanticize the Hoiberg years and act like they were better than what they were. Fred was exactly what we needed and put us back on the map, but his best accomplishments here were conference tourney titles and a sweet 16. Spoiler alert: exactly what Prohm has done. As far as my expectations, I’d say consistently be in the tournament. Once you get there it’s such a crapshoot. But I’d say baseline expectations are the tourney with the occasional down year and the occasional sweet 16, elite 8 and if we’re lucky further than that

 

[Cyclones125]

My expectation from a head coach in any sport is to leave it better than you found it. Born in '92. Probably became an aware fan around the Morgan/Mcdermott era.

Morgan era (C rating):
Exciting brand of basketball. Had some talented players on the roster with Stinson/Blalock/Clark running the full court press. Middle of the pack in conference and NCAA tourney every other year was roughly the expectation. Had it only been about basketball, he probably would've lasted longer.

Mcdermott era (F rating):
We sucked, plain and simple. Probably the worst program in Big 12 during his tenure.

Hoiberg era (A rating):
Hilton Magic is back, baby. Hoiberg took over my freshman year at ISU, while we did not win a lot of games that year... there was a lot of buzz surrounding "The best practice squad in the country" sitting in the front row of the student section. With Hoiberg inheriting probably the least talented roster in the conference and the 1-year sit out transfer rule, there really was no way to compete year one. Utilizing the transfer market (which had never been done to this magnitude before) to expedite the rebuilding process and make it to the NCAA tourney after only 1 year was truly nothing short of amazing. Please note he also recruited what is probably the best core of ISU players in history (Niang, Morris, Naz, Thomas, Ejim). Arguably, the 2nd best program in the Big 12 behind KU during his tenure. Probably underachieved in NCAA tourney although 2 of the losses were to eventual champs and would've knocked off UCONN if Niang didn't get injured. Unfortunately, Hoiberg left the season before he would've had his best team yet. One of the best offensive minds in college (this is why several NBA teams courted him so this is not debatable).

Prohm era (B rating):
To be honest, I thought Otz deserved this job from day one so already a little hesitant. Inherited a top 10 caliber team; talent, team chemistry, and experience were all there (these guys could've made it to the NCAA tourney coaching themselves). Very underwhelming first season saved by Big 12 tourney win. Got a lucky draw in NCAA tourney to get to Sweet 16 (not Prohm's fault how that played out). Good 2nd season with a somewhat disappointing NCAA tourney. 3rd year: Rebuilding year, obvious holes in the roster, injuries killed us, very promising young talent though. 4th year: Preseason expectation was to be happy if we made the NCAA tourney. That changed after the ***-whooping we gave KU. Arguably, had the most talented roster in the Big 12 and with KU being down this should've been a year we competed for the title. Very poor coaching and team chemistry led to our demise. Thought the year was saved with the Big 12 tourney title but was again castrated with a poor showing in the dance.
Prohm has shown to be an elite recruiter with a very good eye for hidden gems. However, he is not a good strategy guy. The issue I have is... how are we going to ever win the Big 12 if we finish 9-9 when the cards were aligned like they were this year.

That being said, I think Prohm has been successful enough to keep his job but at the same time there is another guy out there who is clearly superior. If all the politics and feelings were left aside (and assuming Fred was interested in coaching here for the long haul), bringing Hoiberg back instead of extending Prohm would've been in the best interest for the future of ISU basketball. Time will tell. Go State!

 

[Cydkar]

I think that unless Prohm does awesome, a great number of people think Fred would do, at the very least, slightly better. Until we are actually awesome there will be more pissed off people than if Fred were here with the exact same results.

The cult is strong.

I had season tickets during the GMac years so I can be disappointed without losing my mind. Losing in the first round of the NCAA tournament should almost always be a disappointment but it's no reason to lose your mind, unless it becomes the norm.

The above post, stating that the cards were aligned this year, conveniently ignored the injuries and suspensions that plagued this team. We lost a dude, for the entire season, that would have been a huge cog in helping our defense and rebounding. Clearly Prohm's fault. The guy that should have been able to take his place was a knucklehead. Clearly Prohm's fault.

The cult is strong.

I'm not stating that Prohm is perfect. He's clearly not.

I graduated from ISU Freddy's freshman year. I met him while he was in HS and even played against him at State Gym. I have nothing against him at all.