NCAA Bracket Facts...

[dahliaclone]

What are everyone's one or two picks that maybe not many will pick in the first round?

Mine:

• With LSU under the microscope now, and without their coach for the games, AND the fact they've played 7 overtime games this season, AND the fact they are playing one of the first games on Thursday, I'm picking Yale in the upset.
• Many are picking Oregon over Wisconsin but I'm not buying it. Yes Oregon has won 8 straight but in a **** league. Give me defense in this one.
• I am, however, picking UC Irvine over KSU. The Anteaters are the top rim protecting team in the country and KSU doesn't tend to shoot the ball well overall. UCI hasn't lost since mid-January and has 30 wins and has won at St. Mary's...a team that is similar to KSU.
• There are two games I REALLY want to pick but I can't do it. I honestly think Georgia State will give Houston all they can handle. This is the same program that beat #3 seed Baylor a few years ago. Houston will win...but it will be closer than many think. I also am sticking with Kansas for the win but really think they are prime for an upset. Northeastern shoots the three incredibly well, and three players shoot better than 40% from deep.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

What are everyone's one or two picks that maybe not many will pick in the first round?

Mine:

• With LSU under the microscope now, and without their coach for the games, AND the fact they've played 7 overtime games this season, AND the fact they are playing one of the first games on Thursday, I'm picking Yale in the upset.
• Many are picking Oregon over Wisconsin but I'm not buying it. Yes Oregon has won 8 straight but in a **** league. Give me defense in this one.
• I am, however, picking UC Irvine over KSU. The Anteaters are the top rim protecting team in the country and KSU doesn't tend to shoot the ball well overall. UCI hasn't lost since mid-January and has 30 wins and has won at St. Mary's...a team that is similar to KSU.
• There are two games I REALLY want to pick but I can't do it. I honestly think Georgia State will give Houston all they can handle. This is the same program that beat #3 seed Baylor a few years ago. Houston will win...but it will be closer than many think. I also am sticking with Kansas for the win but really think they are prime for an upset. Northeastern shoots the three incredibly well, and three players shoot better than 40% from deep.

I about picked Yale as well. I saw them play Harvard and came away impressed by how well they shot and played around the rim. I also traditionally tend to pick LSU to falter in the tournament.

That being said, I went with the favorite for no other reason than I felt like I was over-thinking it.

I have several brackets, but my biggest reach has New Mexico State playing Utah State in the Sweet 16. I also have Florida advancing to the Elite 8 in one and Nova in the Final 4 in another.

I feel like Wisconsin, KU and KSU are all being picked as upsets and it wouldn't surprise me to see any of them in the Sweet 16 (obviously WI and KSU couldn't both make it, but still)

 

[cyclones500]

If you’re looking to cash in a pool I think you have to take a lot of chalk. With a few upsets here or there maybe take a sleeper 3 or 4 seed to the final four to separate from the others if your lucky. Taking big upsets early isn’t worth it with the way most brackets are scored. I realize a few top seeds might get knocked off but picking when this happens is difficult and likely you’ll miss out on easy points.

For an 'average' size pool, definitely need to keep a good share of chalk and pick upsets around the edges. Don't go too bonkers with first-round upsets and try to hit home runs there. Distribute some upsets throughout each round.

Most pools you need to pick the champion correctly to be in the running, so that could be the initial step. Determine a final four first, based on regions, then work from the front end to get there. Then choose champ from the final four teams.

And of course, I rarely do it that way.

 

[GTO]

In the last 10/11 tournaments, there has been at least one 4+ seed in the final four, and 11/11 for 3+. I'm sure if you go back further the trend continues, but I just looked somewhat recently. This stat alone made me change my final four, now have Florida State and Houston.

This is why it is always laughable when I see ESPN and CBS heads go straight chalk plus maybe a 2 seed in there.

What in the ****?!

 

[SCyclone]

For an 'average' size pool, definitely need to keep a good share of chalk and pick upsets around the edges. Don't go too bonkers with first-round upsets and try to hit home runs there. Distribute some upsets throughout each round.

Most pools you need to pick the champion correctly to be in the running, so that could be the initial step. Determine a final four first, based on regions, then work from the front end to get there. Then choose champ from the final four teams.

And of course, I rarely do it that way.

Yeah, I'm with 500 on this. The later rounds are where you score, sticking with the higher seeds is almost always a better bet. Safer to chalk, rather than risk an upset, and having the team you expected to lose going deep and really costing you.

Also, @dahliaclone - I really liked your post, but I do think Oregon is going to give Wisky a real battle. My grandsons live in Washington, and are big Husky fans (their Dad took them to Las Vegas for the Pac 12 tournament!), and Oregon just ran them into the mud. It's going to be speed vs. muscle in that one. And speed kills.

 

[nfrine]

now is that based off of our name Cyclones (pretty much unstoppable (unless it runs out of steam)- is that the team this year? since they can restrengthen even stronger!) or is that based off of Cy? either way its true though.

Based on the past eight weeks, we need to change our name to the Polar Vortices....

 

[dahliaclone]

Here's another gem:

In Sports Reference’s Defensive Simple Rating System, which ranks teams based on average point difference and strength of schedule, Virginia has the nation's best defense.

In the 34 year history of modern the NCAA tournament, no team that finished #1 DSRS has reached the title game, and only one has ever been to the Final Four.

 

[Cyched]

Seems to me this is the only way to fill out the bracket (the 2nd one).

And right on cue one of the first responses is a Hawk fan asking them to clarify if they're using the tornado or the bird.

 

[dahliaclone]

And some others:

• For those of you thinking of picking Villanova to be upset:
  • Nova has the best road/neutral record in the country this year: 7-0
• No team has lost its first conference title game and gone on to win the national title
  • That means Texas Tech, LSU, Purdue, and Maryland won't be cutting down the nets
• 2016 was the last time all four #1 seeds reached the Elite 8...not the Final Four...ELITE EIGHT. Before then it was 2009. Hint: don't have all #1 seeds to the Elite 8.
• A 13 seed has beaten a 4 seed in 7 of the last 10 years
• A 14 seed has beaten a 3 seed in 4 of the last 6 years

 

[Doc]

If you’re looking to cash in a pool I think you have to take a lot of chalk. With a few upsets here or there maybe take a sleeper 3 or 4 seed to the final four to separate from the others if your lucky. Taking big upsets early isn’t worth it with the way most brackets are scored. I realize a few top seeds might get knocked off but picking when this happens is difficult and likely you’ll miss out on easy points.

My philosophy for doing large brackets with basic scoring is to pick a lot of chalk but have my favorite 2+ seed as champion. That way you have a good chance on the 10-1 or 20-1 chance your champion actually hits. If you pick Duke and get it right you're still competing with a billion other brackets with the same champion. Game theory type thing.

Smaller brackets I just pick who I think will win.

 

[cyclones500]

My philosophy for doing large brackets with basic scoring is to pick a lot of chalk but have my favorite 2+ seed as champion. That way you have a good chance on the 10-1 or 20-1 chance your champion actually hits. If you pick Duke and get it right you're still competing with a billion other brackets with the same champion. Game theory type thing.

Smaller brackets I just pick who I think will win.

Agree, massive brackets you have to have some separation points balanced with enough chalk. That's theoretically, only once have I've won $ in a pool with hundreds of entries or more, and that was quite some time ago.

 

[Doc]

Agree, massive brackets you have to have some separation points balanced with enough chalk. That's theoretically, only once have I've won $ in a pool with hundreds of entries or more, and that was quite some time ago.

Yeah, usually it fails miserably but you gotta trust the process.

 

[EnkAMania]

And some others:

• For those of you thinking of picking Villanova to be upset:
  • Nova has the best road/neutral record in the country this year: 7-0
• No team has lost its first conference title game and gone on to win the national title
  • That means Texas Tech, LSU, Purdue, and Maryland won't be cutting down the nets
• 2016 was the last time all four #1 seeds reached the Elite 8...not the Final Four...ELITE EIGHT. Before then it was 2009. Hint: don't have all #1 seeds to the Elite 8.
• A 13 seed has beaten a 4 seed in 7 of the last 10 years
• A 14 seed has beaten a 3 seed in 4 of the last 6 years

I picked Georgia State for my 14 vs. 3 upset

 

[dahliaclone]

Per Weber tonight, Dean Wade is 'very doubtful' to play against UC Irvine. Adjust your bracket (or not) accordingly.

 

[cyinne]

 

[cyclones500]

It's weird to have California with no Pac-12 team, and only two other teams. That state has like 25 D-1 schools and has membership is about 5 conferences.

 

[cyrocksmypants]

100% pick based on gut.

 

[NetflixAndClone]

I heard something like an 11 seed has made it to the sweet 16 for 6 straight years.

My favorite is the trendy upset tends not to happen. Seems to always be a kiss a death for the underdog. So teams like Oregon and liberty that everyone has winning I’ll avoid.

 

[Cycsk]

Murray State is my secret pick. If there is any truth to the conspiracy theories about CBS getting the teams that will draw fans, Murray State is it. And not just because of Steve Prohm being from there.

 

[Cycsk]

One year, we filled out a bracket with each choice being made by our dog. We put the team names in plastic eggs with dog treats, then rolled them on the floor. Whichever one he went to was the team we picked. I think he beat me that year!