***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

[Mumbai1986]

The Hawkeyes Non Conference schedule is so terrible it will cost them a spot in the tournament. That was what dogged Virginia Tech every year. They would get like 10 to 12 conference wins a lot of years, but their non conference was so bad they wouldn't get selected for the tournament.

 

[chuckd4735]

ISU wins 0 more games, NIT
ISU wins 1 more game, 11 seed
ISU wins 2 more games, 10 seed
ISU wins 3 more games, 8-9 seed
ISU wins 4 more games, 7 seed
ISU wins 5 more games, 6 seed

Thoughts?

 

[Wesley]

The Hawkeyes Non Conference schedule is so terrible it will cost them a spot in the tournament. That was what dogged Virginia Tech every year. They would get like 10 to 12 conference wins a lot of years, but their non conference was so bad they wouldn't get selected for the tournament.

What's wrong with playing Riverside Bunnies, Dordt Dudes and the Dubuque Finishing School Hustlerettes?

 

[CyTwins]

People who think our resume is similar to Iowa's need help reading a resume. There are 13 non conf games. ISU played 7 teams in the top 150 RPI in non con....Iowa played 3. Doesn't matter how many less or more wins they have then us. UNI only has 17 wins but their RPI is higher than Iowa's for a reason.

 

[Mumbai1986]

VA Tech Records and NCAA Tourney appearances
2003-04: 15-14 (7-9) - No Tourney, RPI 96, SOS 72
2004-05: 15-13 (8-8) - NIT, RPI 112, SOS 93
2005-06: 14-16 (4-12) - No Tourney, RPI 148, SOS 84
2006-07: 21-11 (10-6) - NCAA, RPI 28, SOS 19
2007-08: 19-13 (9-7) - NIT, RPI 54, SOS 39
2008-09: 18-14 (7-9) - NIT, RPI 65, SOS 31
2009-10: 23-8 (10-6) - NIT, RPI 55, SOS 118
2010-11: 21-11 (9-7) - NIT, RPI 66, SOS 70
2011-12: 16-17 (4-12) - No Tourney

Iowa is 19-11, RPI 76, SOS 96

 

[Wesley]

ISU wins 0 more games, NIT
ISU wins 1 more game, 11 seed
ISU wins 2 more games, 10 seed
ISU wins 3 more games, 8-9 seed
ISU wins 4 more games, 7 seed
ISU wins 5 more games, 6 seed

Thoughts?

One win could still be NIT. You have not seen the mid conference surprises. What if Illinois State wins MVC and then Creighton and Wichita State fill bubble spots? You could have three or four real surprise teams after the mini tournaments.

 

[CycloneWarning]

One win could still be NIT. You have not seen the mid conference surprises. What if Illinois State wins MVC and then Creighton and Wichita State fill bubble spots? You could have three or four real surprise teams after the mini tournaments.

Agree.
0 wins, NIT
1 win (not OSU), NIT
1 win (OSU), bubble
2 wins+, NCAA

 

[Mumbai1986]

VA Tech Records and NCAA Tourney appearances
2003-04: 15-14 (7-9) - No Tourney, RPI 96, SOS 72
2004-05: 15-13 (8-8) - NIT, RPI 112, SOS 93
2005-06: 14-16 (4-12) - No Tourney, RPI 148, SOS 84
2006-07: 21-11 (10-6) - NCAA, RPI 28, SOS 19
2007-08: 19-13 (9-7) - NIT, RPI 54, SOS 39
2008-09: 18-14 (7-9) - NIT, RPI 65, SOS 31
2009-10: 23-8 (10-6) - NIT, RPI 55, SOS 118
2010-11: 21-11 (9-7) - NIT, RPI 66, SOS 70
2011-12: 16-17 (4-12) - No Tourney

Iowa is 19-11, RPI 76, SOS 96Iowa is not getting in as of today.

 

[cyclonepower]

VA Tech Records and NCAA Tourney appearances
2003-04: 15-14 (7-9) - No Tourney, RPI 96, SOS 72
2004-05: 15-13 (8-8) - NIT, RPI 112, SOS 93
2005-06: 14-16 (4-12) - No Tourney, RPI 148, SOS 84
2006-07: 21-11 (10-6) - NCAA, RPI 28, SOS 19
2007-08: 19-13 (9-7) - NIT, RPI 54, SOS 39
2008-09: 18-14 (7-9) - NIT, RPI 65, SOS 31
2009-10: 23-8 (10-6) - NIT, RPI 55, SOS 118
2010-11: 21-11 (9-7) - NIT, RPI 66, SOS 70
2011-12: 16-17 (4-12) - No Tourney

Iowa is 19-11, RPI 76, SOS 96Iowa is not getting in as of today.

what year did the tourney expand to 68?

 

[cyclones500]

ISU wins 0 more games, NIT
ISU wins 1 more game, 11 seed
ISU wins 2 more games, 10 seed
ISU wins 3 more games, 8-9 seed
ISU wins 4 more games, 7 seed
ISU wins 5 more games, 6 seed

Thoughts?

You're in the ballpark.

I think 4 or 5 wins would end up the same — guessing in the 7 seed range. I say this because, If ISU reached the title game of Big 12, it'd be considered roughly equal to winning the tournament, a win over the champion in the 1/5 game (assuming no 8/9 upset) would be the highest addition to the resume; another win vs. OU/OSU/KSU the next day might not move it up another line. It would as an isolated case, but there's the entirety of the field to consider.

On the other end of the spectrum, NCAA bid is still possible with 0 wins. Problem is, there would be enough reasons overall to justify leaving ISU out, compared to similar resumes.

 

[erikbj]

You're in the ballpark.

I think 4 or 5 wins would end up the same — guessing in the 7 seed range. I say this because, If ISU reached the title game of Big 12, it'd be considered roughly equal to winning the tournament, a win over the champion in the 1/5 game (assuming no 8/9 upset) would be the highest addition to the resume; another win vs. OU/OSU/KSU the next day might not move it up another line. It would as an isolated case, but there's the entirety of the field to consider.

On the other end of the spectrum, NCAA bid is still possible with 0 wins. Problem is, there would be enough reasons overall to justify leaving ISU out, compared to similar resumes.

IF ISU loses the last 5 games of the season there is NO way they get into the tournament.

 

[Clones21]

VA Tech Records and NCAA Tourney appearances
2003-04: 15-14 (7-9) - No Tourney, RPI 96, SOS 72
2004-05: 15-13 (8-8) - NIT, RPI 112, SOS 93
2005-06: 14-16 (4-12) - No Tourney, RPI 148, SOS 84
2006-07: 21-11 (10-6) - NCAA, RPI 28, SOS 19
2007-08: 19-13 (9-7) - NIT, RPI 54, SOS 39
2008-09: 18-14 (7-9) - NIT, RPI 65, SOS 31
2009-10: 23-8 (10-6) - NIT, RPI 55, SOS 118
2010-11: 21-11 (9-7) - NIT, RPI 66, SOS 70
2011-12: 16-17 (4-12) - No Tourney

Iowa is 19-11, RPI 76, SOS 96Iowa is not getting in as of today.

Iowa is going to have to beat Nebraska Saturday, then win TWO games in the Big 10 Tourney or there is no way they are getting in. What some Hawk fans don't understand is that there are teams ahead of them with better resumes.

 

[cyclones500]

IF ISU loses the last 5 games of the season there is NO way they get into the tournament.

Disagree. Four of those five would be vs. tournament teams.

It certainly isn't ideal, but it wouldn't spell doom because of the streak itself — too many missed chances to add bulk to the resume (plus an additional sub-100 loss).

 

[cyclones500]

IF ISU loses the last 5 games of the season there is NO way they get into the tournament.

And let me add: just because ISU wouldn't be eliminated from contention finishing 0-5 (from a practical standpoint) ... I don't think we want to find out if that'd hold up.

 

[johnnydugouts]

maybe i am missing something but iowa has a pretty favorable resume to other bubble teams with the exception of RPI. their close losses combined with weak OOC schedule are killing them. most computers really like them.

even their "bad" losses are weird...V-tech was ranked when they lost that game, and v-tech also turned around and won at Okie State. purdue has won more games down the stretch than expected.

its will be interesting to see it unfold. pretty crazy that the last slot could come down to iowa or ISU or even better (worse?) maybe thats a play-in game LOL.

 

[cyclones500]

Beating OSU is the obvious meat-and-potatoes of today's CF Bubble Watch.

Games to track for potential gravy:
UNC at Maryland
Georgetown at Villanova
Temple at Fordham
GW at La Salle
Tennessee at Auburn

A 'Nova win would probably lock a bid.

 

[Gunnerclone]

maybe i am missing something but iowa has a pretty favorable resume to other bubble teams with the exception of RPI. their close losses combined with weak OOC schedule are killing them. most computers really like them.

even their "bad" losses are weird...V-tech was ranked when they lost that game, and v-tech also turned around and won at Okie State. purdue has won more games down the stretch than expected.

its will be interesting to see it unfold. pretty crazy that the last slot could come down to iowa or ISU or even better (worse?) maybe thats a play-in game LOL.

Ya that post doesn't make any sense, sorry.

 

[johnnydugouts]

Ya that post doesn't make any sense, sorry.

what part?

iowa is a statistical victim of bad scheduling. they could have scheduled 200-ish RPI teams instead of 300-ish teams and they would be a lock right now. it wouldnt mean they are a better team on the court.

 

[Gunnerclone]

what part?

iowa is a statistical victim of bad scheduling. they could have scheduled 200-ish RPI teams instead of 300-ish teams and they would be a lock right now. it wouldnt mean they are a better team on the court.

See the bolded parts. First you said the one exception is their RPI, then you go on to list 2 more exceptions and then just make a lame point in the last bolded part unless you are going to get totally stupid and tell me VA Tech is a good team because they were ranked for 1 day in November. Hoks are funked, sorry bro.

 

[johnnydugouts]

See the bolded parts. First you said the one exception is their RPI, then you go on to list 2 more exceptions and then just make a false statement in the last bolded part unless you are going to get technical on me and tell me that "well every team is ranked. Hoks are funked, sorry bro.

uh...every one of those points is related to RPI.

we are ahead of iowa at this point in time no doubt but im am not quick to dismiss them based on the growth in use of metrics other than RPI. its also an important argument because they own the head to head.