***Official 2021 NCAA Tournament Thread***
- Thread starter ClonesTwenty1
- Start date
That's because ACC teams are used to their zone. Teams in the tournament are not.
Whose is ready for a Loyola, Oregon State, Syracuse, Rutgers Sweet Sixteen in the Midwest?
They've generally played at or around their seeding.
Seems like they've been the only B12 team that does anything a lot of years.
Seeding history and results:
West Virginia Mountaineers men's basketball - Wikipedia
Huggins may not see the end of this game if this is how the game is going to be called underneath.
The unintended consequences of all of the 'excitement' of the first two rounds.
Well Baylor beat them - and their zone - in the first round two years ago. And Baylor was a 9 seed to Syracuse's 8 seed.
Even Rutgers this year figured out their "zone." I would expect a team the quality of West Virginia to also do it.
They've generally played at or around their seeding.
Seems like they've been the only B12 team that does anything a lot of years.
Seeding history and results:
West Virginia Mountaineers men's basketball - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
In 16 tournaments, they have averaged 0.23 better than expected. They have done the best when a 2 seed and worst as a 3 seed.
| Seed Group | Tournaments | Wins over Expected |
| 1 to 2 | 1 | 1.63 |
| 3 to 4 | 2 | -0.70 |
| 5 to 8 | 9 | 0.43 |
| 9+ | 4 | -0.09 |
| Grand Total | 16 | 0.23 |
Baylor has historically played a zone. So they have players and coaches who are used to zones (maybe not exactly Syracuse's zone, but still zone nonetheless.) Also, if you have great talent and great shooters, you can beat their zone.
Rutgers does not have great talent, not especially great shooters. And they play man. You are hyping Syracuse too much IMO.
A Big 12 #3 losing to a justified #11 (nothing like Loyola) would be bad.
Syracuse to S16 might turn out to be one of the few things I've done right in my bracket so far, as far as upsets go.
I am not hyping Syracuse too much, but explain to me another reason why Syracuse has averaged almost half a win better than expected based on their seed on average.
And what does Rutgers have to do with Syracuse?
EDIT. Syracuse's win differential is 0.3 wins per year over expected (coming into this tournament)
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Rutgers is an example of a non-ACC team that beat Syracuse this year.
But to be honest, if I was a coach I would not want to see Syracuse in my bracket either.
Just saying that they are a #11 seed for a reason; they have weakness that opponents have taken advantage of. West Virginia has many more proven players than Syracuse does.
You are using an anecdotal example. You can always use anecdotal examples to try to disprove something. That is not how statistics work. On average Syracuse has done better than expected based on their seed. Yes, they are an #11 seed due to weaknesses. But the fact that others haven't seen their zone helps make up for those weaknesses somewhat. It does not overcome them, but is an explanation for why they do better. But it doesn't mean that other teams cannot beat them.
For teams that have played in at least 5 tournaments since 1985, here are the ones that have performed the best vs. expected wins (Top 20)
Win Differential - Avg Over Expected
Win Differential - Avg Over Expected
| Team | Tournaments | Avg Wins | Avg Exp | Avg Win Over Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | 20 | 2.75 | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| Auburn | 9 | 1.89 | 1.14 | 0.75 |
| Butler | 15 | 1.47 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| Florida | 22 | 2.14 | 1.51 | 0.62 |
| Kentucky | 30 | 2.77 | 2.15 | 0.61 |
| Michigan | 21 | 2.14 | 1.62 | 0.52 |
| Rhode Island | 7 | 1.14 | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| George Mason | 6 | 0.83 | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| North Carolina | 32 | 2.84 | 2.42 | 0.42 |
| Michigan State | 29 | 2.03 | 1.62 | 0.41 |
| Louisville | 26 | 1.88 | 1.48 | 0.40 |
| Navy | 6 | 0.67 | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Richmond | 8 | 0.75 | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| Ohio | 5 | 0.60 | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Middle Tennessee State | 5 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Oregon | 12 | 1.58 | 1.28 | 0.30 |
| Syracuse | 28 | 1.93 | 1.63 | 0.30 |
| Duke | 34 | 2.85 | 2.55 | 0.30 |
| UCLA | 25 | 1.84 | 1.54 | 0.30 |
| Wisconsin | 22 | 1.55 | 1.27 | 0.28 |
For comparison, here are the 20 worst performers as compared to seed:
Win Differential - Avg Over Expected
Win Differential - Avg Over Expected
| Team | Tournaments | Avg Wins | Avg Exp | Avg Win Over Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | 7 | 0.00 | 0.87 | -0.87 |
| Oregon State | 5 | 0.00 | 0.85 | -0.85 |
| New Mexico | 12 | 0.50 | 1.09 | -0.59 |
| Southern Methodist | 5 | 0.40 | 0.96 | -0.56 |
| Georgia | 11 | 0.36 | 0.89 | -0.53 |
| Pittsburgh | 19 | 1.00 | 1.52 | -0.52 |
| South Carolina | 5 | 0.80 | 1.26 | -0.46 |
| Miami, Florida | 9 | 0.89 | 1.34 | -0.45 |
| Massachusetts | 8 | 1.38 | 1.80 | -0.43 |
| Wake Forest | 14 | 1.14 | 1.55 | -0.41 |
| Brigham Young | 17 | 0.35 | 0.75 | -0.40 |
| Mississippi | 8 | 0.50 | 0.89 | -0.39 |
| St. John's, New York | 14 | 1.07 | 1.46 | -0.39 |
| Clemson | 11 | 0.64 | 1.00 | -0.36 |
| Utah State | 11 | 0.09 | 0.45 | -0.36 |
| Missouri | 20 | 0.80 | 1.15 | -0.35 |
| Charlotte | 10 | 0.40 | 0.75 | -0.35 |
| Houston | 6 | 0.50 | 0.84 | -0.34 |
| Creighton | 14 | 0.43 | 0.77 | -0.34 |
| Cincinnati | 23 | 1.13 | 1.46 | -0.33 |
A few of these teams on the worst (Oregon State, Houston, Creighton) may move off of the list after this year's tournament.
