***Official 2023 Weather Thread***

[Trice]

Does central Iowa even get enough snow to necessitate a 2 stage?

I had a single stage for awhile in far north Iowa and it was completely fine. My mom gave me her 2 stage because her husband decided it wasn't fancy enough, and we get maybe 2 snows a year where it cleans faster than my old single stage did, and as someone else pointed out, the single stage always got it cleaner.

All depends on your circumstances. In terms of actual snowfall in inches, we don't get many snowfalls that would necessitate a two-stager. But I live on a corner lot with 100 yards of sidewalk to clear, and the plow leaves a lot at the end of my drive and especially at the sidewalk curb cut. Plus everyone else's melting snow runs in my direction so all of that is usually extra wet. Then you throw in the wind tunnel effect between me and my neighbor that produces some pretty big drifting.

There are times when I'm pushing even my Ariens two-stager through drifts almost like I used to push the old blocking sled in my playing days.

 

[Trice]

Speaking of snow blowers, I shoveled every snow this year except for the heavy wet snow. But my 10 year old snow blower hadn't ever had a servicing. I went all out, new spark plug, new oil, new scraper, etc. I ran the gas out like every year. But I don't think I ran seafoam through it for the first time last winter. Damned if I couldn't get it started without a little carb cleaner sprayed in the spark plug hole. Now I can get it running but can't fully take the choke off now.

Anyone else a slacker on maintenance like me and had an issue like this? I'm thinking I should go get a can of seafoam and run some through it before the next snow. So mad I didn't take care of it. It's a really nice Craftsman 26" and I now have that canopy that goes over me when I'm using it. If you don't have one of those I couldn't recommend it more.

FWIW, I heard about Seafoam a few years ago (probably from someone here, though I don't recall) and I never run down the gas in spring all the way like I used to. I'll get it low and then add some Seafoam and that's worked great - always starts right up in fall.

 

[urb1]

I'm almost 53 and love the workout of the shovel. Plus the wide white plastic shovels do it so quickly and clean.

I shovel as well, and I'm 63. I bought a Snow Plow shovel 3 years ago, and it makes shoveling a breeze. It doesn't work great on driveway aprons if they have a lot of snow piled up. Other than that, one of the best purchases I've made in years.

 

[alarson]

Interesting, KCCI still has Ames at 1-3.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

God I love this thread

 

[awd4cy]

Kcci

 

[CyCrazy]

I shovel as well, and I'm 63. I bought a Snow Plow shovel 3 years ago, and it makes shoveling a breeze. It doesn't work great on driveway aprons if they have a lot on snow pe. iled up. Other than that, one of the best purchases I've made in years.

Those are the best snow shovels out there. I have a scoop shovel for the end of the drive. I do have a beast of a 2 stage but I have used it 3 times the last couple of years, thinking about just selling it.

 

[FDWxMan]

WHO has Ames at 0.3 and Des Moines at 0.8. Good news! No update from KCCI since early this morning.

Interesting, KCCI still has Ames at 1-3.

Ok guys, here's the actual scoop.

There isn't really much (any) difference between 0.8" on the graphic and 1 to 3.

In fact, if you've listened to what I say during the forecast for the last 15 years, I pretty much always give a range for the totals when showing the map.

I try to massage the graphic into putting those totals right in the middle of my confidence range. For instance, I'll *show* Des Moines at say 4.3" and I'll *say* 3 to 5.

My goal, at least personally, is to get those numbers to be as close to the middle of a +/- 1" window for any particular storm. I'll usually adjust placement and goose or throttle amounts from the model to try to get a good fit for what we're thinking.

Remember, on an average Iowa snowfall, 1" of snow is about 0.08" of rain, and can be 0.05" or less on the fluffy January stuff.

So is there really a difference between 0.8" of snow, and 1.3"? It's about 0.04" of liquid difference...which is what we actually forecast first, and then try to forecast temperatures and lift at different layers to try to come up with the right conversion ratio. A lot of science, but a fair amount of art to it as well.

What goes on the graphic is going to be a style choice from each shop, but taking the tenth of an inch literally isn't going to get great mileage for the most part. Maybe you can use it to round to get an idea which side of that +/- range I'm leaning toward.

Probably not the Anchorman back alley brawl attitude that would be way more entertaining, so we'll have to save that for some time when the forecasts are actually on different islands.

 

[nfrine]

This basturd will put the snow anywhere you want it...including the neighbors drive.

 

[clonedude]

Those are the best snow shovels out there. I have a scoop shovel for the end of the drive. I do have a beast of a 2 stage but I have used it 3 times the last couple of years, thinking about just selling it.

I've got one like pictured below, and I finish my driveway faster than my neighbor with a big stage 2 snow blower.... and it doesn't bother your back at all.... it's just pushing with your legs only. I've never used a snow blower.

 

[cstrunk]

Ok guys, here's the actual scoop.

There isn't really much (any) difference between 0.8" on the graphic and 1 to 3.

In fact, if you've listened to what I say during the forecast for the last 15 years, I pretty much always give a range for the totals when showing the map.

I try to massage the graphic into putting those totals right in the middle of my confidence range. For instance, I'll *show* Des Moines at say 4.3" and I'll *say* 3 to 5.

My goal, at least personally, is to get those numbers to be as close to the middle of a +/- 1" window for any particular storm. I'll usually adjust placement and goose or throttle amounts from the model to try to get a good fit for what we're thinking.

Remember, on an average Iowa snowfall, 1" of snow is about 0.08" of rain, and can be 0.05" or less on the fluffy January stuff.

So is there really a difference between 0.8" of snow, and 1.3"? It's about 0.04" of liquid difference...which is what we actually forecast first, and then try to forecast temperatures and lift at different layers to try to come up with the right conversion ratio. A lot of science, but a fair amount of art to it as well.

What goes on the graphic is going to be a style choice from each shop, but taking the tenth of an inch literally isn't going to get great mileage for the most part. Maybe you can use it to round to get an idea which side of that +/- range I'm leaning toward.

Probably not the Anchorman back alley brawl attitude that would be way more entertaining, so we'll have to save that for some time when the forecasts are actually on different islands.

Exactly this, but jonas is trolling. Some other people aren't, which is sad but everybody (general public) complains about a busted forecast. Very few give credit when you nail it.

Anyone who puts up a graphic with tenths places for snow predictions is kind of asking for it though. Why even show that? Just round to the nearest inch. Even better - just put the range you say on the graphic...

 

[FDWxMan]

Exactly this, but jonas is trolling. Some other people aren't, which is sad but everybody (general public) complains about a busted forecast. Very few give credit when you nail it.

Anyone who puts up a graphic with tenths places for snow predictions is kind of asking for it though. Why even show that? Just round to the nearest inch. Even better - just put the range you say on the graphic...

Well, the reasons for doing a number and not a range you can kinda find in this thread.

Not everyone understands ranges. A chunk of the public don't like them. Some think it's being a wise ass trying to take an easy way out. Uncertainty is hard to communicate in a way that doesn't get tomatoes thrown at you from at least one direction.

It's damned if you do, damned if you don't. I've taken calls and emails on both methods over the years.

 

[CrossCyed]

Well, the reasons for doing a number and not a range you can kinda find in this thread.

Not everyone understands ranges. A chunk of the public don't like them. Some think it's being a wise ass trying to take an easy way out. Uncertainty is hard to communicate in a way that doesn't get tomatoes thrown at you from at least one direction.

It's damned if you do, damned if you don't. I've taken calls and emails on both methods over the years.

You could be off by a foot and have a better night than the officials from tonights game.

 

[FDWxMan]

And if we're being really picky...the scientist part of me HATES the way the NWS does their range graphics...makes my eye twitch.

You've got colors and a map legend that indicate one range, numbers that indicate a range different than the color bands, ranges that overlap...ugh. Grinnell being labeled 1 to 4 but colored 2 to 3 is one of those nails on a chalkboard sensations for me from under my graphic design hat. Des Moines, Chariton and Ottumwa the same color, but all three labeled differently.

Again, I get it, but it does throw a certain % of people off.

So, there. That's as close as I'm coming to bomb throwing tonight.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I don’t have any issue with forecasts using ranges 2 to 3 inches apart … I know predicting the amount of snow accumulation can’t be exact to the inch, yet alone tenths of inches. But when you use 1-6” like the NWS shows for Dubuque here ... or “trace to 8 inches” which I literally saw predicted for a storm some years ago ... that’s just not helpful at all.

 

[mynameisjonas]

Easy way out, literally KCCI had 0-6 inches in Des Moines as a possibility in their 10:00 news. That’s just pathetic.

 

[3TrueFans]

Easy way out, literally KCCI had 0-6 inches in Des Moines as a possibility in their 10:00 news. That’s just pathetic.

If we get less than 0 inches I'm going to be so upset.

 

[alarson]

Easy way out, literally KCCI had 0-6 inches in Des Moines as a possibility in their 10:00 news. That’s just pathetic.

If there is a lot of uncertainty in a forecast (which there is for this one due to the rain\snow changeover), it makes sense that a forecaster should express that in their ranges.

 

[mynameisjonas]

If there is a lot of uncertainty in a forecast (which there is for this one due to the rain\snow changeover), it makes sense that a forecaster should express that in their ranges.

0-6?????

 

[3TrueFans]

0-6?????

Chris G is the best in the biz.