Lots of rumors out there today that decisions have been made. UC, Memphis, Houston, BYU.
We will see if that proves correct.
I have a tough time believing both Houston and Memphis get invited. Not sure why the Big12 would want to add 2 schools that have enjoyed traditionally very low fan support. Houston is a bigger TV market and Hermann is still the coach. Memphis lost it's coach and I think the Fed-X angle is overblown.
IMO BYU and Cincy are locks (if a Big12/Pac12 merger doesn't happen). Both have successful football programs, bring strong TV interest and overall strong athletic programs.
After that, what school has the most expansion value to the Big10, ACC or SEC? I don't think that is Houston or Memphis. IMO it is UConn. They have elite MBB & WBB programs. With Big12 TV money, UConn could invest heavily in FB.
If the Big12 stops at 14 schools, does it make the most sense to add a rival for BYU? IMO CSU is the logical choice. They are a large state school. Strong academics and research. Just built a new 40k seat stadium. Solid MBB, WBB and volleyball programs. Colorado is also home for a lot of Iowa, Kansas and Texas transplants.
Houston wouldn't be on my list of 14. If Texas demands it, maybe a compromise of adding Houston in 4-6 years if/when the Big12 expands to 16 teams. If I am the Big12, I would want to see ongoing success by Houston FB and overall improvement in their athletic department.