Lard has to be in the hit column. I think the 2018 class is 4/4, as all have the talent to play at this level, and I think the 2017 class was 3/3. Really, we're looking at a 1/5 start and 8/9 after that (IMO). I think Ernst is actually doing well at FGCU.
I was judging things as they are now and trying to keep things as simple as possible. With Cameron, we know what he did last season (with some flashes of greatness, but also much boneheaded fouling and being in coach's doghouse). We have not seen much of him yet this season. He
could yet turn into a solid player or even a huge hit, but if what he did as a freshman is all he ever does, then I would call him a bust. Being a good player on a bad team that ultimately does not really impact the overall trajectory of the program means a bust if that is all he ever does (not predicting or wishing for this, but if he never really catches on again this year and ends up leaving the program to go off into the wilderness, I call that a bust).
Hence, I think it is fair to say the jury is out on Lard's career.
Ernst is averaging 17.9 minutes per game at FGCU. That is, okay, I guess?
Even if he was going to be all-conference in the Atlantic Sun, however, I would still consider him a bust. You have to judge them on what they accomplished in Ames. Maybe Jakolby Long goes to Cedar City, Utah, finally gets healthy, practices like a demon, and comes out and is the best player in the Big Sky and plays in an NCAA tournament. Think something like the career of Custer. Him doing that for another team does not justify his inability to make a mark as a Cyclone, however, and makes you wonder why the first coach could not unlock the potential.
Wasn't Noskowiak actually a Fred recruit? I think he signed in April of 2015.
I actually consider two guys TJ recruits -- Noskowiak and bringing in Nick as a legacy and transfer. I know Fred was nominally still the head coach and/or we had not hired a new head coach at the time, but TJ was interim head coach in everything but name.
While Prohm is responsible for the 2015 Class he didn't take the job until June of the year leaving him little time to get commitments from that class. Carter and Ernst were more roster fillers who signed very late. Noskowiak was a TJ guy and I doubt Prohm really had much to do with his commitment rather grandfathering in the offer. I have a difficult time really counting any of the 3 against CSP.
Long was a Prohm guy, but after his shoulder injuries never reached his potential and should be considered a bust. We also should CSP give credit for Prohm for D-Jax, I realize he was a JuCo transfer but did contribute for 2 years. Solomon was a TJ guy from the start, and has started since his midway through his freshman year. That is a hit like you said especially considering his 3 star rating.
2018 All three are hits. Lard already has gotten recognition as an All Big 12 player even if things don't go as well as we hope in the future getting a 3 star to contribute at that level already is a hit. Lewis should rank as unsure, but he moves like a Big 12 player and his shot looks pure. Still his defense needs to improve to really break the rotation, but he can get there this year or next. Terrence has at least earned the scholly offer, and shown why the staff wanted him.
2019 Class is trending very well but it is really to early to grade it as hit and misses 10 games in, though I consider THT, Haliburton hits already. Griffin and Conditt have shown flashes and look the part of Big 12 players. Very good class early, and aligns with the highest raked in program history.
Overall the most important aspect is now that Prohm has fully taken the control of the program after CFH the past two classes have been very talented with a lot of lower rated players hitting in his system. It bodes well for the future of the program.
I do not "blame" Prohm for the bust of the 2015 class. I realize he had very little time to throw it together and just sort of took what scraps he could find.
The fact he mostly hit (removing the 2015 class puts him at four hits, four unknowns with good prospects going, and one undeniable bust) on everything since then is encouraging. I do agree with you that you have to give him some credit for Jackson, who would have had a vital role on basically every Iowa State team in history if not quite as a starter. I think you have to do the same for Shayok and Jacobson if you are going down that rabbit hole, though, and I was only talking about incoming freshman out of high schools or prep schools.
I find it ironic that we so associate the transfer strategy with Fred and called that era Transfer U while Prohm is starting three transfers right now (and is bringing another one into the rotation with Talley). That is absolutely in keeping with those early Fred teams.
Lard is not a member of the “last two classes” with Wigginton. He committed the year prior (‘16), enrolled late, and redshirted.
Some of you need to revisit your calculations.
I think we all remember the complicated path that Cameron took to arrive in Ames. He first hit the court in 2017, though, and his class ranking now as a sophomore is the same as Lindell and Lewis. I do not think if he was 2016 or 2017 really matters all that much towards judging him as a successful recruiting outcome, a bust, or something eventually in the middle.
