We wouldn’t be paying any buyouts. And worst case scenario if we did it would be for 1 year. That or the Big12 dissolves by 2024 in which case we wouldn’t be paying any.
Perspective from the Big Ten and some much needed clarifications
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We wouldn’t be paying any buyouts. And worst case scenario if we did it would be for 1 year. That or the Big12 dissolves by 2024 in which case we wouldn’t be paying any.
I don’t think it’s a 32 team league. 64 teams makes too much sense and helps preserve the feel of college sports.
The question, to me, is how many conferences does the media want to bid on? Is it 4 conferences of 16? That would seem logical.
4 conferences of 16 means:
SEC is now there
ACC adds teams from AAC & WVU
Big Ten needs 2, but can be picky
PAC needs 4
It would make sense for PAC to add 4 from the Big XII. Probably KU, KSU, OSU, & ISU. It gets them into the central time zone and 3 new states. Maybe they look at a Texas team, but not great prospects there. PAC probably can’t wait, though. They can’t afford to lose any of their best, they need more teams, and there aren’t that many options for them. They’ll probably move before the Big Ten.
Big Ten might be making a play for 2-4 new teams from the PAC, but almost need the two best to be worth it. Maybe they take 4, if it has to be a package deal. If they can’t get USC, they probably wait it out. They can get KU & ISU whenever they want, even if it’s 10 years from now. At any rate, they don’t need anything, but would probably be interested if USC were in play.
If the Big Ten eventually raids the PAC, the PAC backfills with Boise, SDSU, TTU, maybe TCU.
The end result is ISU is fine. We may not be getting as much as we did in the Big XII, but we’re in the league. A magical 2021 season and keeping CMC would certainly make all the difference for us!
The question, to me, is how many conferences does the media want to bid on? Is it 4 conferences of 16? That would seem logical.
4 conferences of 16 means:
SEC is now there
ACC adds teams from AAC & WVU
Big Ten needs 2, but can be picky
PAC needs 4
It would make sense for PAC to add 4 from the Big XII. Probably KU, KSU, OSU, & ISU. It gets them into the central time zone and 3 new states. Maybe they look at a Texas team, but not great prospects there. PAC probably can’t wait, though. They can’t afford to lose any of their best, they need more teams, and there aren’t that many options for them. They’ll probably move before the Big Ten.
Big Ten might be making a play for 2-4 new teams from the PAC, but almost need the two best to be worth it. Maybe they take 4, if it has to be a package deal. If they can’t get USC, they probably wait it out. They can get KU & ISU whenever they want, even if it’s 10 years from now. At any rate, they don’t need anything, but would probably be interested if USC were in play.
If the Big Ten eventually raids the PAC, the PAC backfills with Boise, SDSU, TTU, maybe TCU.
The end result is ISU is fine. We may not be getting as much as we did in the Big XII, but we’re in the league. A magical 2021 season and keeping CMC would certainly make all the difference for us!
It would be nice if the NCAA could grow some balls and take control of college football. They should be the ones deciding what schools are in what conference, how the post season works, and making sure all P5 teams are making similar money off of TV contracts. I get it if you’re playing more prime time games you should get more money, but it’s just insane the difference in conferences right now. There should be a higher power than a conference.
There's no mechanism to make it happen. Maybe when the super SEC falters and the money dries up.
NCAA Constitutional Convention in November
Based on above link, it looks like NCAA President Emmert expects big changes. In previous interviews he has mentioned a de-centralized model giving more power to the conferences. Below is quote from end of article.
"This is not about tweaking the model we have now," Emmert said. "This is about wholesale transformation so we can set a sustainable course for college sports for decades to come. We need to stay focused on the thing that matters most — helping students be as successful as they can be as both students and athletes."
Where do you get this info from? Are you basing it off of each school endowment size because that doesn’t necessarily equate to donating to the Athletics Department.
My perception is that SEC donors would give all of their money to AD versus schools’ endowment.
Yeah maybe it is, but we’re not going to be in a good bargaining position. I think 10 years to get a full share is the absolute best we could hope for. Remaining 8 plus AAC teams or some P12 leftovers is $15-20M tops so anything above that is going to be a plus. I just want a solid spot long term and whatever that takes is going to be worth it.
The good thing is that our FB program is peaking at the absolute best time. Another NY6 win or a conference title will make it tough to ignore us.
4 major conferences of 16 teams each is soooooo much better for the health of college football than one super conference of however many teams (unless it is 64 subdivided).
Yes.. I do wonder how much ESPN cares too. This is the real issue. ESPN may be looking at this in terms of how they maximize value today. They really don't care if CFB is maximized if they are not controlling it. I think it is very interesting the comments on timing raised by Chris and others on this. If they are afraid of streaming players becoming more involved it makes sense they want to consolidate as many brands as they can in leagues they control (SEC) and minimize the value to any other player. Trying to control as many brands as they can at the lowest possible cost. Not really looking at this as a long term play but how do I max current value to ESPN.
I hope a central leadership team will emerge that can help build a path forward that is better for everyone in the long term.
Those first 5 years would be AD crushers. We wouldn’t recover.
Its been literally ONE week since OU and UT officially announced that they were leaving the conference, and we have people complaining that the Pac 12 nor Big 10 has expanded yet, and therefore we are going to be on the outside looking in.
Everyone needs to take a chill pill and relax, as Campbell says, "Trust the process. " We have a great AD, he is going to make sure that we land on our feet, no matter where our future home is.
I think that the OU and UT move caught everyone off guard, and now the other conferences and Fox are trying to come up with a plan of attack for dealing with the SEC. This is not going to occur quickly, no conference is going to go out and extend offers to schools without running the numbers first and seeing who is willing and available to move out of their current conference and into a new one.
Looking at the ACC grant of rights, it seems like they are all locked into their conference until 2035 or so, I cannot see any SEC leaving when they are all about to be flush with money like never before. So now the question becomes, does the Big 10 and Pac 12 want to combine or just add new schools to the mix from either the Big 12 or some other conference.
The one thing that the buy out of OU and UT provides is time, so we do not have to make a decision about the future tomorrow. For those that are worried how it will affect recruiting it simple, sure we have reached out to all our commits and are telling them, "look OU and UT will be here for 2 more seasons, and then after that we will be moving to the Big 10 or Pac 12," just like WV is telling their recruits the ACC or SEC.
Trust the process and be patient, we will be fine.
Everyone needs to take a chill pill and relax, as Campbell says, "Trust the process. " We have a great AD, he is going to make sure that we land on our feet, no matter where our future home is.
I think that the OU and UT move caught everyone off guard, and now the other conferences and Fox are trying to come up with a plan of attack for dealing with the SEC. This is not going to occur quickly, no conference is going to go out and extend offers to schools without running the numbers first and seeing who is willing and available to move out of their current conference and into a new one.
Looking at the ACC grant of rights, it seems like they are all locked into their conference until 2035 or so, I cannot see any SEC leaving when they are all about to be flush with money like never before. So now the question becomes, does the Big 10 and Pac 12 want to combine or just add new schools to the mix from either the Big 12 or some other conference.
The one thing that the buy out of OU and UT provides is time, so we do not have to make a decision about the future tomorrow. For those that are worried how it will affect recruiting it simple, sure we have reached out to all our commits and are telling them, "look OU and UT will be here for 2 more seasons, and then after that we will be moving to the Big 10 or Pac 12," just like WV is telling their recruits the ACC or SEC.
Trust the process and be patient, we will be fine.
Absolutely. Patience is our ally. One comment regarding the SEC swimming in money, is the extent to which the B12 doesn't burden their balance sheet. As of now (without litigation) it's pretty heavy for at least 1 year. With litigation, that would further stall ESPN/SEC expansion plans or at the very least negatively leverage their existing debt. That's a lot of money not currently in their pockets. As stated earlier, this is THE opportunity for all other conferences to come together and make arrangements for the benefit of their constituents. By planning now, the arrangements can be in such a manner so as NOT to burden their balance sheets yet strengthen their position against the SECs power move.
Yes, Obviously the Big10 is not going to act hastily. They were caught off guard as we all were.
However it has (or soon will) dawn on them that the implosion of the Big XII has presented them with a unique and time critical opportunity to add ISU and KU in "2025" without worrying about those schools suffering financially with conference exit penalties.
I'm sure in a while the conference will approach the opportunity logically and look at their options and the balance sheet (short term and long term) and decide what to do at that point. Whether they take us or not still seems at or slightly less than 50% in my WAG, but looking at growth trends at ISU athletics they might see what we all see and take ISU.
Agreed. As it stands now the Big 12 is a conference until 2025 as that’s officially when OU and UT leave for the SEC, as they’re trying to avoid paying for the buyout. Not that I think there’s a chance the conference lasts that long, but that’s the plan for the moment. Which means us as fans aren’t going to learn about ISU’s fate tomorrow or next week; it’s going to be months to years before that happens. And that doesn’t mean JP isn’t working behind the scenes trying to secure that future - at this point in time us fans are in a “don’t need to know” in an extremely “need to know” environment.
Good question for everyone ( and I am NOT going to start of new thread for this)....
If you are a conference that has the ability to add some schools from the remaining 8... which remaining schools brings the most credibility, and or long term upside to your existing conference? Feel free to answer this question from the perspective of each P5 conference point of view. What are the reasons for your answers?
Go.
If you are a conference that has the ability to add some schools from the remaining 8... which remaining schools brings the most credibility, and or long term upside to your existing conference? Feel free to answer this question from the perspective of each P5 conference point of view. What are the reasons for your answers?
Go.
Both the Pac 12 and the Big 10s TV rights are up for renewal in 2023/24. They are not going to do anything until they run the numbers and see how much more they can make by adding teams or staying where they are. Fox is also going to have a huge influence in that decision.
Neither conference is going to act hastily because once you are in, you are in for life. Also with the AAU schools being so important to the Big 10 that really cuts the numbers down they will chose to join the conference.
I would think that both ISU and KU if given a choice will chose the Big 10 over the Pac 12, and they surely have spoken to the Big 10 about their desire to be in the conference. So unless the Pac 12 decides to expand first, then we should be fine.
It would be interesting if the Pac 12 decided to add say 4 to 6 teams from the Big 12, would that speed up the process of the big 10. It would put both ISU and KU in a sticky spot, to have an invite to the Pac 12 in hand, hoping for one to come from the Big 10. If that is the case, both schools would surely tell the Big 10 you have to give us the invite, or we are taking the invite from the Pac 12 and then be off your radar for years to come, maybe forcing the issue.
ISU, KU, OSU, and TT are the biggest upsides from the remaining Big 12 teams, followed by WVU, K-State, and TCU (I truly believe Baylor is screwed no matter what).
ISU and KU have academics as an advantage, but in the antiquated “eyeballs in a TV market” fall short (although ISU has made headway in “total eyeballs” in the last decade).
OSU and TT have advantages in population, but their academics are terrible.
WVU has to hope the ACC is willing to take them, because neither the Big 10 nor the SEC will, and it’s their only hope.
K-State, similar to WVU, isn’t great at academics or population, but if KU goes to the Big 10 or ACC, K-State should get interest from the PAC 12 if they truly want eastward expansion.
TCU sits in the major DFA metro area, but their academics aren’t great and they’re a religious school, although they have gone more secular over the years.
Honestly, the best outcome for the most Big 12 schools would be if ISU and KU go to the Big 10, WVU goes to the ACC, and K-State, OSU, TCU, and TT go to the PAC 12. The biggest roadblock being whether what’s best for us is also best for those other conferences.
Had a chance to listen to the FART cast over the weekend. Woody was putting out a lot of optimism about ISU to the B1G, similar to a lot of people here on the forums. The basic concept being, it just makes sense and the idea of a 30-40 team super league with only the highest value brands doesn't because you'll lose a huge portion of the CFB fanbase and therefore lose the TV viewers and economic value of those brands.
All that makes sense as far as it goes. I think it's obvious that at the end of the day, there will not be a 30 team league with 16 SEC vs. 14 B1G as the divisions. Or a 20 team SEC "mini-NFL". That's clearly the death of CFB. But what was not discussed is what I think is a much more obvious (and sad for us as ISU fans) endgame.
The B12 simply collapses or sticks together and is relegated to G5 (future G6) status. The ACC, B1G, SEC, and P12 + Notre Dame become the new P4 57 team breakaway league. The 8 leftover B12 teams are not invited, due to their lack of media value - none of the remaining 8 teams in the B12 are revenue positive or neutral to add to a conference. You lose 8 teams out of the former B12, about 12% of the former P5. It's a hit to fandom and revenue, but the sport survives. While 64 is a nice number, there's no obligation to go to that. CFB has never had a nice round number of teams or an even number of teams per conference. Why should they start now? It's unfair and sucks big time for us. But sadly, only the media dollars matter at this point.
I think our best hope is that the B12 remnants merge with the best of what's left and are given a sympathy seat as a token "Power" conference similar to the Big East prior to the 2010 realignments. This would at least allow us a seat at the table and a slot in the future "New Years 6", even if we would be considered undeserving.
All that makes sense as far as it goes. I think it's obvious that at the end of the day, there will not be a 30 team league with 16 SEC vs. 14 B1G as the divisions. Or a 20 team SEC "mini-NFL". That's clearly the death of CFB. But what was not discussed is what I think is a much more obvious (and sad for us as ISU fans) endgame.
The B12 simply collapses or sticks together and is relegated to G5 (future G6) status. The ACC, B1G, SEC, and P12 + Notre Dame become the new P4 57 team breakaway league. The 8 leftover B12 teams are not invited, due to their lack of media value - none of the remaining 8 teams in the B12 are revenue positive or neutral to add to a conference. You lose 8 teams out of the former B12, about 12% of the former P5. It's a hit to fandom and revenue, but the sport survives. While 64 is a nice number, there's no obligation to go to that. CFB has never had a nice round number of teams or an even number of teams per conference. Why should they start now? It's unfair and sucks big time for us. But sadly, only the media dollars matter at this point.
I think our best hope is that the B12 remnants merge with the best of what's left and are given a sympathy seat as a token "Power" conference similar to the Big East prior to the 2010 realignments. This would at least allow us a seat at the table and a slot in the future "New Years 6", even if we would be considered undeserving.
1. KU
2. Some order of ISU, OSU, and TTU. TTU is a large public school in Texas. OSU has a better overall athletic history than ISU and a bigger football/basketball brand due to longer periods of sustained success (and peaks). Fan support though is "meh". They can have great teams and not even come close to selling out Gallagher Iba, which is embarrassing. Recent surges in enrollment, rabid fan support, and football ascension really help ISU's cause.
3. Baylor, who maybe belongs on the tier above due to having some outstanding basketball programs. Having recent championships in both men's and woman's sports makes up for school size, fan base, and support.
4. WVU. They have a good history of athletic success but come from a poor state and rank low on educational rankings. The latter will really hurt them in finding a home.
5. TCU. They just don't bring enough to the table.
6. Kstate. They still have some of the worst facilities in the conference, are isolated in being a small town over 2 hours away from the nearest major metro (which Kansas largely controls), and have a smaller alumni base and fan support. They also lack the academic standing of many of the above institutions.
