Wow, I have no clue if what you just said has anything to do with media packages.
Under the big 10 media deal, the money is NOT made from those that actually watch the games, its made off those that are being charged whether they watch it or not. Why did they pick Rutgers to expand into too? Not because of the school and their winning tradition and fan base, it was because by picking them, that allowed the conference to charge every person in New York City, that has cable a dollar a month. I am charged for it here in Iowa whether I watch or not.
In your example, you actually have to purchase the product, but BTN got around that, by being on basic cable. IF you had cable, you paid money to BTN. That was the genius of the system, that allowed the money to flow in.
Now with streaming, that flood of money, starts to slow down. People that are not interested will not purchase the added sports pak, therefore less money into the conference. Once they go down this path, and we are going down this path, then the size of your teams crowds and fanbase give you a good idea of how many people are willing and able to purchase the product. Hardcore BTN fans are buying, but for everyone of them, there are dozens of other people that will not. Under the old system, those dozens would have had no choice but to pay into the system, now they do, and they are not doing it. If they were then BTN+ would not be $80 dollars a year, or $10 bucks a month, they would have kept it at roughly the same price as basic cable costs, at a dollar or two.
BTN knows all of this, and that is why they are trying to transition to putting more games on BTN+ thereby forcing people to purchase it, even if that means for only one month. NBC and ND is doing the same thing this coming season, putting one game on their streaming service to see how large of a crowd they can draw and if there is going to be enough money there in the future to do it more often.