Lets remember that the last couple of years we were probably a 4 seed going into the Big 12 tournament. The 3 big wins in the Big 12 tournament helped bump up to a 3 seed.
Predict Our NCAA Tournament Seed
- Thread starter every_yard
- Start date
At this point a tourney berth is all that's needed.
Location of game might be an issue, but there's just not a lot of separation between the teams with great records and teams with marginal records like ISU.
Location of game might be an issue, but there's just not a lot of separation between the teams with great records and teams with marginal records like ISU.
69%? Yea that's not really a sure thing. Also, us falling to 25 isn't a stretch.
It is easy to say this after a loss like last night, but I think I feel the same way.
We're probably either a 5 or 6 seed in the Big 12, so losing the first game is not going to hurt our seeding at all.
I would have no problem with the season playing out like this:
-Win out at home
-Steal one on the road
-Probably matched up with Texas or Baylor in the Big 12 tournament (win or lose, shouldn't effect the seed)
This is the recipe for a 4 or 5 seed. Win a couple in the Big 12 tournament, we might be looking at another 3.
Wasn't it Conneticutt a few years back that won the whole damn thing as a seven seed? A lot of people are too hung up on seeds as opposed to paying attention to bracket match-ups. I'd almost rather have Iowa State as the "hunters" than the "hunted". Know what I mean?
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I just want to avoid the 8/9 and the 4/5 to put off playing the 1's, but the way this year is shaking out, the 1's might not be as bad as the 2/3's. It's up in the air. The 1 that would scare me the most is OU and they probably wouldn't match us up till at least the elite eight...so maybe I've talked myself into liking a 4/5
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I just want to avoid the 8/9 and the 4/5 to put off playing the 1's, but the way this year is shaking out, the 1's might not be as bad as the 2/3's. It's up in the air. The 1 that would scare me the most is OU and they probably wouldn't match us up till at least the elite eight...so maybe I've talked myself into liking a 4/5
I used to think the same thing about 4/5 seed. So much so, that I'd rather be a 6 than a 5.
However with this season, if we end up in that 4/5, better win that first one, hope for a favorable match up against the 4/5, then get to take a few days off to prep for that 1 seed.
Iowa? Villanova? North Carolina?
Those sound A LOT better than last season's Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Duke.
If the season ended today we are a 3. Add in the 3 more losses coming our way and that puts us in the 5 seed range.
Yeah, I think I agree. When I was typing that out it showed how weak the 1's are. We're going to have to play a 2 or 1 to get to the elite eight either way (possibly) and it doesn't look too bad. Wish we were fully healthy.
Not a sure thing, but it's a pretty good bet that you can see how a team should seed based on RPI, then say plus or minus one.
Yeah, kind of a deceiving stat. Say Iowa St ends up 18th in rpi. That's a 5 seed, so they could be a 4 seed, which would be 13-16, or a 6 seed, which would be 21-24. So really anywhere from 13-24, that's a pretty big gap.
And this is only 69% of the time.
Even if seeding actually were based on straight RPI, 6 or 7 seed would be 21 to 28 not in to the 30s.
Hell, ISU could have an RPI of 17, receive a 6 seed, and still fall into that "within one line 69% of the time" stat.
Falling below the 5-line is not at all a longshot, at this point at least.
A spot in the Sweet 16 would melt away approximately 91.72% of the current CFBH (Cyclone Fanatic Butt Hurt).
On a more serious note, adversity can build a stronger, more resilient team. If a few tough losses in January and February lead to our team playing into the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tourney, so be it.
The annual mock selection process is going on in Indy right now. Looks like they have us as the final 3 seed. This is obviously all based on games to date, but gives some good perspective. You can search #mockselection on twitter for more details.
