Preseason Prediction — ISU and Big "12"

[cyclones500]

I'm taking the plunge.

I put ISU's record one win above my gut-instinct, but a couple of wins short of what I hope Rhoads could reach in Year 3. i see several close games against strong teams being close, but going the wrong way.

As for the conference as a whole, I see some strange results almost top-to-bottom: a few lower-tier teams pulling upsets, and upper-level teams laying a few eggs.

I included scores for ISU games. I rarely come close on that.

Final regular season standings
Oklahoma 9-0 11-1
Texas A&M 6-3 8-4
Missouri 6-3 8-4
Texas 6-3 9-3
Okla State 5-4 8-4
Kansas St 4-5 6-6
Texas Tech 3-6 5-7
Iowa State 3-6 5-7
Baylor 2-7 5-7
Kansas 1-8 3-9

IOWA STATE (5-7, 3-6)
W Northern Iowa, 30-7
L Iowa, 24-10
W @Connecticut, 26-20
L Texas, 27-17
W @Baylor, 23-21
L @Missouri, 28-14
L Texas A&M, 31-13
L @Texas Tech, 35-28
W Kansas, 27-10
L Oklahoma St., 27-20
L @Oklahoma, 42-10
W @Kansas St., 27-24 OT

BAYLOR (5-7, 2-7)
W TCU
W Stephen F. Austin
W Rice
L @Kansas St.
L Iowa St.
L @Texas A&M
L @Oklahoma St.
W Missouri
L @Kansas
L Oklahoma
W Texas Tech
L Texas

KANSAS (3-9, 1-8)
W McNeese State
W Northern Illinois
L @Georgia Tech
L Texas Tech
L @Oklahoma St.
L Oklahoma
L Kansas St.
L @Texas
L @Iowa St.
W Baylor
L @Texas A&M
L Missouri

KANSAS STATE (6-6, 4-5)
W Eastern Kentucky
W Kent St.
L @Miami (Fla.)
W Baylor
L Missouri
W @Texas Tech
W @Kansas
L Oklahoma
L @Oklahoma St.
W Texas A&M
L @Texas
L Iowa St.

MISSOURI (8-4, 6-3)
W Miami (Ohio)
L @Arizona St.
W Western Illinois
L @Oklahoma
W @Kansas St.
W Iowa St.
W Oklahoma St.
L @Texas A&M
L @Baylor
W Texas
W Texas Tech
W @Kansas

OKLAHOMA (11-1, 9-0)
W Tulsa
L @Florida St.
W Missouri
W Ball St.
W @Texas
W @Kansas
W Texas Tech
W @Kansas St.
W Texas A&M
W @Baylor
W Iowa St.
W @Oklahoma St.

OKLAHOMA STATE (8-4, 5-4)
W La.-Lafayette
W Arizona
W @Tulsa
L @Texas A&M
W Kansas
L @Texas
L @Missouri
W Baylor
W Kansas St.
W @Texas Tech
W @Iowa St.
L Oklahoma

TEXAS (9-3, 6-3)
W Rice
W BYU
W @UCLA
W @Iowa St.
L Oklahoma
W Oklahoma St.
W Kansas
W Texas Tech
L @Missouri
W Kansas St.
L @Texas A&M
W @Baylor

TEXAS A&M (8-4, 6-3)
W SMU
W Idaho
W Oklahoma St.
L Arkansas
L @Texas Tech
W Baylor
W @Iowa St.
W Missouri
L @Oklahoma
L @Kansas St.
W Kansas
W Texas

TEXAS TECH (5-7, 3-6)
W Texas State-San Marcos
W @New Mexico
L Nevada
W @Kansas
W Texas A&M
L Kansas St.
L @Oklahoma
W Iowa St.
L @Texas
L Oklahoma St.
L @Missouri
L @Baylor

 

[ljhlax]

I'm taking the plunge.

I put ISU's record one win above my gut-instinct, but a couple of wins short of what I hope Rhoads could reach in Year 3. i see several close games against strong teams being close, but going the wrong way.

As for the conference as a whole, I see some strange results almost top-to-bottom: a few lower-tier teams pulling upsets, and upper-level teams laying a few eggs.

I included scores for ISU games. I rarely come close on that.

Final regular season standings
Oklahoma 9-0 11-1
Texas A&M 6-3 8-4
Missouri 6-3 8-4
Texas 6-3 9-3
Okla State 5-4 8-4
Kansas St 4-5 6-6
Texas Tech 3-6 5-7
Iowa State 3-6 5-7
Baylor 2-7 5-7
Kansas 1-8 3-9

IOWA STATE (5-7, 3-6)
W Northern Iowa, 30-7
L Iowa, 24-10
W @Connecticut, 26-20
L Texas, 27-17
W @Baylor, 23-21
L @Missouri, 28-14
L Texas A&M, 31-13
L @Texas Tech, 35-28
W Kansas, 27-10
L Oklahoma St., 27-20
L @Oklahoma, 42-10
W @Kansas St., 27-24 OT

BAYLOR (5-7, 2-7)
W TCU
W Stephen F. Austin
W Rice
L @Kansas St.
L Iowa St.
L @Texas A&M
L @Oklahoma St.
W Missouri
L @Kansas
L Oklahoma
W Texas Tech
L Texas

KANSAS (3-9, 1-8)
W McNeese State
W Northern Illinois
L @Georgia Tech
L Texas Tech
L @Oklahoma St.
L Oklahoma
L Kansas St.
L @Texas
L @Iowa St.
W Baylor
L @Texas A&M
L Missouri

KANSAS STATE (6-6, 4-5)
W Eastern Kentucky
W Kent St.
L @Miami (Fla.)
W Baylor
L Missouri
W @Texas Tech
W @Kansas
L Oklahoma
L @Oklahoma St.
W Texas A&M
L @Texas
L Iowa St.

MISSOURI (8-4, 6-3)
W Miami (Ohio)
L @Arizona St.
W Western Illinois
L @Oklahoma
W @Kansas St.
W Iowa St.
W Oklahoma St.
L @Texas A&M
L @Baylor
W Texas
W Texas Tech
W @Kansas

OKLAHOMA (11-1, 9-0)
W Tulsa
L @Florida St.
W Missouri
W Ball St.
W @Texas
W @Kansas
W Texas Tech
W @Kansas St.
W Texas A&M
W @Baylor
W Iowa St.
W @Oklahoma St.

OKLAHOMA STATE (8-4, 5-4)
W La.-Lafayette
W Arizona
W @Tulsa
L @Texas A&M
W Kansas
L @Texas
L @Missouri
W Baylor
W Kansas St.
W @Texas Tech
W @Iowa St.
L Oklahoma

TEXAS (9-3, 6-3)
W Rice
W BYU
W @UCLA
W @Iowa St.
L Oklahoma
W Oklahoma St.
W Kansas
W Texas Tech
L @Missouri
W Kansas St.
L @Texas A&M
W @Baylor

TEXAS A&M (8-4, 6-3)
W SMU
W Idaho
W Oklahoma St.
L Arkansas
L @Texas Tech
W Baylor
W @Iowa St.
W Missouri
L @Oklahoma
L @Kansas St.
W Kansas
W Texas

TEXAS TECH (5-7, 3-6)
W Texas State-San Marcos
W @New Mexico
L Nevada
W @Kansas
W Texas A&M
L Kansas St.
L @Oklahoma
W Iowa St.
L @Texas
L Oklahoma St.
L @Missouri
L @Baylor

Seems like a lot of hard work for some really bad predictions, but more power too you for at least throwing it out there in such splendid detail.

 

[Judoka]

Your prediction of Baylor seems to be similar to how people pick us to finish at the bottom of the conference every year regardless of what our team looks like: No research and just making assumptions.

 

[ljhlax]

Your prediction of Baylor seems to be similar to how people pick us to finish at the bottom of the conference every year regardless of what our team looks like: No research and just making assumptions.

Well said.

The way I look at the Big 12 this year is like this. There is a top tier with OU, OSU, A&M and possibly Mizzou (but I'll wait to see how their offense clicks before adding them to the list). After that there isn't (IMO) that much that separates the rest of the league. I think KU could actually lose to NIU and have a miserable season, but I also know they have some athletes and a talented coach that could surprise the league (similar to how ISU did it in 09). KU's depth is nowhere where it needs to be, but anything can happen if they stay healthy. I can see them picking off KSU at home and possibly Tech, OSU or even ISU. KSU has some of the best JUCO transfers coming in that could make them better than advertised if they click with Snyder's system. Mizzou is going to be a stout defense this year but you still have to score points to win games. They could wind up with a season like A&Ms last year. Big upsets but big dissappointments too. OSU is going to win some games real big with their offense, but they could lose an unexpected game or two if they face a team and coach that really handles the clock well and just hangs around long enough. Baylor is a very talented team and is much deeper than they have ever been, but they have an offense that could doom them if they put the ball in their opponents hands. Still they aren't going to finish next to last. I think ISU turns the tables on the rivalry this year and beats the wildcats, but KSU is set up to possibly beat teams like OSU, Baylor and Tech. ISU is going to have another memorable win this year against a big name (ala NU in 09 and Tex in 10), but the predictions just don't make sense to me. Lose fairly easily to Iowa and then beat Uconn fairly easily. Beat Baylor at Baylor and then lose very winnable home games. Again, I applaud you for trying but it doesn't seem like the predictions take into account the overall quality of the conference and the fact that at least 7 of the Big 12 teams could beat each other on any given Saturday. 2 are just superior and 1 is slowly rebuilding. I could see 3 teams finishing 5-4 and 4 teams finishing 4-5 in the conference with one 6-3, one 8-1 and one 3-6. I just haven't figured out who those teams are yet.

 

[cycfan1]

You have KSU losing to ISU and Texas (who they have owned), but beating TAM?

My gut on our schedule is that we beat one of TAM/Missouri this year. 5-7 again, unfortunately.

 

[kkjpeterson]

ISU finishes 8-4....Go clones

 

[CloneFan4]

Baylor will not lose to Kansas and K State.

 

[JUKEBOX]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYD_qeBc2mo]2009 Iowa State Football National Championship - YouTube[/ame]

 

[cyclones500]

Your prediction of Baylor seems to be similar to how people pick us to finish at the bottom of the conference every year regardless of what our team looks like: No research and just making assumptions.

Fair enough. I'm torn about my BU analysis.

(1) after a solid season in 2010, suddenly Baylor is a legit program in some expert circles, and I'm hesitant to join the hype until I see more than one bowl season in a 15-year span. ISU has been "Baylor North" in the Big 12, and I've rarely seen Iowa State picked in the upper half of the division — and it's because of those same assumptions.

However:

(2) Baylor doesn't seem like a 2-7 team in the Big 12. Some of my toss-ups dipped the record from a 4-5/5-4 range because of where the games are played. Kansas is going to win a game, and Baylor looks like a possible victim, mainly because it's at KU — I couldn't see many beatable teams for KU that were at home. I also have Baylor beating Missouri.

 

[RING4CY]

7-5

Wins over:

UNI
UConn
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Texas A&M
Texas Tech

 

[cyclones500]

You have KSU losing to ISU and Texas (who they have owned), but beating TAM?

My gut on our schedule is that we beat one of TAM/Missouri this year. 5-7 again, unfortunately.

My first prediction had ISU losing to KSU (again!), which put ISU at 4-8. I still think that's realistic, but when I decided to bump up to 5-7, it was among Iowa, KSU and Tech (as far as games I didn't pick as wins).

Texas plays KSU at home. Win.

A&M is at KSU — I think A&M will be very good but will stub a toe. And that's the toe I chose.

 

[cstrunk]

My unscientific prediction...

1. Oklahoma
2. Oklahoma State
3. Texas A&M
4. Texas
5. Missouri
6. Kansas State
7. Baylor
8. Iowa State
9. Texas Tech
10. Kansas

 

[jaretac]

Your prediction of Baylor seems to be similar to how people pick us to finish at the bottom of the conference every year regardless of what our team looks like: No research and just making assumptions.

Beats TCU but loses to Kansas? Yeah, don't think he thought that though.


I see ISU falling something like this.

Wins likely
Northern Iowa
Kansas

Toss Up
Kansas State
Texas Tech
UConn
Iowa
Texas
Missouri

Loses likely
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
A&M
Baylor

You have to not only think about talent, but also match up. Baylor and A&M are bad match ups for us. The same also goes for Ok State however I think they have less of a chance of tanking than Baylor and A&M.

KState I almost put in the likely win spot because they lost all their skill positions, however this is on the road and Snyder is the coach. Like him or not, he does a great job getting the most out of his guys (reminds me of an ISU coach we have).

Of the teams in the toss up category, I only expect Texas to be better this year. Texas Tech had too many losses just like KState. Iowa will have to be down, they have shown before that they can only maintain they high level of play for a few years before rebuilding again. I might be in the minority, but I also think Missouri will be way down.

 

[iowast8fan]

IOWA STATE (8-4)
W Northern Iowa
W Iowa
W @Connecticut
L Texas
W @Baylor
L @Missouri
W Texas A&M
W @Texas Tech
W Kansas
L Oklahoma St.
L @Oklahoma
W @Kansas St.

 

[Cyched]

UNI - Win, no reason it should be otherwise
Iowa - Toss-up/Win. This game will be much closer this year, and I think Rhoads finally gets the monkey off his back. This is the best chance he'll have to beat Iowa since he started
@UConn - Win. I think this will surprise some people, but UConn doesn't dazzle me, especially with a new coach
Texas - Loss. This will be the most fun home game all year, but Texas gets us in the end. I don't see it happening 2 years in a row
@Baylor - Win. I believe we have the personnel on defense to shut down RGIII. Hopefully our offensive production picks up; it could be a shootout if we struggle on D.
@Mizzou - Toss-up. I have no clue what Missouri is gonna do this year. They lose Gabbert, but return other offensive players like TJ Moe. We'll see
Texas A&M - Loss. Aggies are good this year.
@Texas Tech - Toss-up. This one really depends how we come out to play that day. I think we win, but we never seem to play well down in Lubbock
Kansas - Win. See UNI
Oklahoma State - Loss. Like the Texas game, this will be a blast to be at. In the end OSU's talent outlasts ours
@Oklahoma - Loss. Sooners are VERY good this year.
@Kansas St. - Win/Toss-up. Like the Iowa game, Rhoads has a perfect opportunity to beat Father Time. Never count out KSU at home. Bowl eligibility could be on the line

Optimistic prediction: 8-4
Realistic prediction: 6-6/5-7

 

[Judoka]

I really think we'll know a lot more about the season after the UNI game. If we can score 30+ points and hold them to 14 or less (other than garbage time) then I feel pretty good about going bowling. But if they can stop our offense consistently, or our defense can't stymie their offense consistently, then this year is going to be painful.

 

[Goothrey]

I'm looking at that schedule and I see wins will be hard to come by.

5-7 sounds about right, unfortunately.

If we can avoid blow out games and then get wins in games like the KSU games of recent, we are in good standing to make a bowl game.

 

[Ry4Cy]

gun to my head 3-9 but since CPR seems to have one upset every year 4-8..i see the texas game going about like the NU game last year tho

 

[clone51]

I really think we'll know a lot more about the season after the UNI game. If we can score 30+ points and hold them to 14 or less (other than garbage time) then I feel pretty good about going bowling. But if they can stop our offense consistently, or our defense can't stymie their offense consistently, then this year is going to be painful.

Exactly so. If we lose to UNI, we could be staring at 0-fer. Or, a convincing win, might suggest 4 or 5 wins.

 

[ianuni57]

I really think we'll know a lot more about the season after the UNI game. If we can score 30+ points and hold them to 14 or less (other than garbage time) then I feel pretty good about going bowling. But if they can stop our offense consistently, or our defense can't stymie their offense consistently, then this year is going to be painful.

This game will set the tone for the season. A blow out/dominant win and ISU could be in the 7-5 category. A close win or a loss, and it will be in the 3-9 to 5-7 range.