Was a killer that OSU let Texas win. When the game is on the line down the stretch Texas is not going to lose.
Randy Pete predicts,..........
- Thread starter MuskieCy
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I still don’t buy Texas as a contender. There’s no way they don’t drop atleast one more game. I hope it’s to us
Just for fun, I calculated some title-game probabilities using the FPI game-by-game probabilities--which are difficult for me to defend. Iowa State has a .301947 of getting into the title game when including only those scenarios where they end with one or two conference losses. I did not calculate it for 3+ loss scenarios and gave them a zero probability for those. If they defeat Baylor this Saturday, it goes up to .454203. Again, three-loss scenarios are set to zero probability of getting into the title game. Someone was interested in the Texas-loss scenario. If Iowa State goes 3-1 for the remainder with that loss to Texas, then their probability of getting into the title game is .86862. If they go 3-1 with the loss to another team, then their probability is around .98. This suggests that either I did something wrong or that with three losses, Iowa State is basically out. These probabilities are exact and some of them reveal that other FPI simulation numbers (e.g., WinOut %) are dramatically inconsistent with the FPI game-by-game probabilities.
