If the Big10 and SEC schools have to settle for $200m each, how are teams then leaving for the Big12? That’s not enough to dissolve the conference. So the penalties would still be there for the remaining schools. No one is paying $200m to come to the Big12.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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If the Big10 and SEC schools have to settle for $200m each, how are teams then leaving for the Big12? That’s not enough to dissolve the conference. So the penalties would still be there for the remaining schools. No one is paying $200m to come to the Big12.
In this scenario, the Big 12 would be worth considerably more than the ACC. VT would be stupid to stick around.
I did go browse VT boards, and they are very Utah-esque. They realize they probably aren't getting into the Big 10 or SEC, but they think the Big 12 is a step down. IIRC the last time they played a Big 12 team they got their ass kicked at home by WVU.
I guess this can be true based off of the brands the ACC has. But, the current ACC wouldn’t be an option any longer. So even if they think it’s a step down, it’s still their best option.
Utah seemed to think that the PAC was going to stay together forever. They didn’t realize that the USC’s of the world didn’t consider them an equal and felt the same about them as Utah fans did the Big12.
Good point. Yep, doesn't make sense.
Wasn't there talk (during the "Magnificent 7") that if the conference gets below a certain number, the exit fee or GOR is not enforced? You would only have 5 or 8 left, depending when this happens since Stanford, Cal, and SMU coming aboard. If the 4 hear that the 6 are leaving, maybe they join in and head out the door too, and all 10 are off scott free or with a minimum penalty.
If the top 6 leftovers get all of $1.2 billion over 10 years, that’s $20 million/year. ESPN would only need to offer a deal that allows VT and Co to get $15 million/year from TV, and staying would be ahead.
Plus keeping all the basketball credits
Leave, and VT and Co have to pay. Plus give up easy CFP access.
Easy call to stay, then grab Big 12 schools in 2031
The only question is whether espn wants that. In this example, it’s an annual $165 for espn to get T1/T2 rights to 11 ACC schools (likely more, as ACC will revenue rape Tulane and USF like they are SMU).
If 4 ACC were moved to Big 12 at $20 million, it’s less for espn, but those schools paying to leave
If the Big 12 do the wise thing and be willing to take 8 ACC, it’s a win for ESPN and dissolves the ACC, thus no payments
Leaving a conference with no TV deal and without its top 6 schools would be much cheaper. The 2nd wave isn’t paying $200 million
The 3x conference expenditures (exit fee) goes down. What is the leverage to get much out of GOR
But why would they want to pay anything?
They could stay, subsidized by $20 million/year from the schools that left, and make schools come to them next round
It'd be interesting to see what the B1G would do if facing the reality that if they don't jump now, they'd lose UNC and UVA to the SEC.
I think the academic component would not let the presidents at UVA or UNC go to the SEC. Them (and whatever type of BOR they have) are the one making the final call on this and just do not see them being in the same academic conversation as most of the SEC.
Academics don't matter any more in terms of college sports.
That's where the 80 school Super League gets it right - blowing up conferences.
The conference model is outdated, and frankly stupid today. The problem is that it's made these SEC and Big 10 commissioners so much money that they're going to fight to keep it together, even if the schools might actually make more money by blowing that whole thing up.
This idea of claiming we're holding hands and singing kumbaya and associated in all levels because we play sports against each other is dumb as f*ck and the sooner it goes away, the better.
That's where the 80 school Super League gets it right - blowing up conferences.
The conference model is outdated, and frankly stupid today. The problem is that it's made these SEC and Big 10 commissioners so much money that they're going to fight to keep it together, even if the schools might actually make more money by blowing that whole thing up.
This idea of claiming we're holding hands and singing kumbaya and associated in all levels because we play sports against each other is dumb as f*ck and the sooner it goes away, the better.
They matter to the school presidents making the decisions. Why do you think Stanford and Cal got into the ACC
I disagree. They would have went indy rather than join the MWC or Big12. Academics matter to academics. Would the SEC's money convince them to look the other way? maybe... I don't believe you'll see Duke join the Big 12 even if their whole world collapses for the same reason. Academics matter to academics.
Duke is in a different world than Cal or Stanford. Almost no one really cares about athletics in Berkeley or Palo Alto. On the other hand, basketball is religion in Durham. That administration will not let the sport die on the vine.
If the ACC implodes and Duke doesn't get a seat in the Big Ten or SEC, they will do one of two things: Join the Big 12, or decide to give up on football and join the Big East. Academic prestige etc. may play a role in that decision, but they will not do something that could kill their basketball program like Cal or Stanford might have done to all of their sports. Different vibe entirely.
lol at the ACC enticing WVU to leave the big 12 when it's main rivals, Pitt and VT, are arriving. That won't happen.
And no power 2 conference will take Miami--a small private school who has done zero for 2 decades. no way Miami pulls its weight in a power 2 conference.
Miami isnt even the best add for the big 12. VT is much better. it brings Virginia and part of DC.
My guess:
BIG: UVA, FSU, Clemson and UNC
SEC: NC State and VT Not wanting to be left out of the nc and virginia markets.
Big 12: Pitt, Louisville, Duke, Miami
And no power 2 conference will take Miami--a small private school who has done zero for 2 decades. no way Miami pulls its weight in a power 2 conference.
Miami isnt even the best add for the big 12. VT is much better. it brings Virginia and part of DC.
My guess:
BIG: UVA, FSU, Clemson and UNC
SEC: NC State and VT Not wanting to be left out of the nc and virginia markets.
Big 12: Pitt, Louisville, Duke, Miami
The Big 12 wasn't going to invite Stanford and Cal. We got more valuable Pac properties.
Yeah, I think Duke would absolutely join the Big 12 if the ACC blows up, because of hoops.
There is zero chance VT and NCST go to the SEC by themselves, zero
I think it maybe matters less today, but I think it still matters. If nothing else, it matters to masses of alumni, many of whom are donors, what conference their alma mater is part of in terms of academic reputation. My wife's cousins are Southern Cal graduates and pretty looped in and back when the move to the B1G thing was happening, I asked them about the rumors about USC to the SEC if joining the B1G didn't work out and they said alumni would've lost their sh*t if USC joined the SEC.
