Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isucy86]

But if you were a middling Pac12 (eg Utah, Az, ASU) and your short shares were worth less than an equal share in Big12, why would you stay? On top of that, UW an UO are both "flight risks" who aren't going to sign a GoR even with getting bonus shares -- and if they dump you then you are really in deep feces.

I could see it work, but it screams instability.

For it to work, Oregon & Washington would HAVE to sign a GOR for the length of the true media value agreement. No GOR and the corner schools should bolt to the Big12.

I would think the media partner would want a GOR as well become losing schools means losing inventory. Might not be such an issue in a 14 or 16 team conference. But my bet is a salvaged Pac12 would be a 10 or 12 team conference at most.

 

[Statefan10]

Still a lot of chaff in the B1G and SEC to have the “every Saturday is a big matchup” argument out there…many more schools than just ISU and Oregon State, and more that live in the PAC now that the Big12, Stewie.

The problem with the thought process of having every matchup every weekend be big is that some of those big name teams are going to have average records. It wont be a bunch of 9-1 teams playing each other.

It’ll be a 4-6 Texas playing a 6-4 A&M followed by a 5-5 Michigan playing 3-7 UCLA.

Sounds like a lot of fun.

 

[drmwevr08]

He needs to convince the ASU prez, an ISU alum, that teaming with ISU and our buds would be the right move. Sad that that is the case.

I'd hate to have to convince that guy of anything. He thinks he's the supreme leader of the most prestigious institution in the free world. Surrounded by ass kissers and ball lickers. He probably wants in the IVY because he doesn't care too much about football.

 

[drmwevr08]

I can't help but question the idea that thinning the heard and consolidating brands will draw in this huge number of somehow uncaptured fans. Hasn't it been every year over the past half decade there are doom articles written about how viewer and attendance numbers are falling for both college football and the NFL? How is culling FBS, or the P5 more specifically down, to 32/36/40/48 teams going to capture more attention? It doesn't create anything new really. Sure there are more novel "high profile" matchups, but that novelty will wear off sooner than most writers seem to think.

The matchup is big now because it's infrequent and because those brands are beating everyone else. How much of a blockbuster is it when 8-2 Alabama meets 5-5 Texas or 6-2 OSU plays 4-4 USC?


Ha. I hadn't seen this exact point already made. The whole deal changes!

 

[aeroclone]

The problem with the thought process of having every matchup every weekend be big is that some of those big name teams are going to have average records. It wont be a bunch of 9-1 teams playing each other.

It’ll be a 4-6 Texas playing a 6-4 A&M followed by a 5-5 Michigan playing 3-7 UCLA.

Sounds like a lot of fun.

Sadly though, I think there is a lot of value in selling the brands of the match up even if they aren't good. Texas vs LSU is easy to market to a casual viewer, even if they are both having a .500 season. A top 25 ISU Houston match-up not so much.

 

[ScottyP]

Sadly though, I think there is a lot of value in selling the brands of the match up even if they aren't good. Texas vs LSU is easy to market to a casual viewer, even if they are both having a .500 season. A top 25 ISU Houston match-up not so much.

Even in the NFL, a Dallas v. Jacksonville will get a good TV spot because of the Cowboy brand.

 

[trajanJ]

I still think the brands have to be good for national interest. If the UT/LSU are both 4-4 when they play each other I don't think there is going to be much interest in that game. If ISU/Houston includes one team in the top 25 and another in the top 10 I would watch that over the UT/LSU game every time.

 

[drmwevr08]

Sadly though, I think there is a lot of value in selling the brands of the match up even if they aren't good. Texas vs LSU is easy to market to a casual viewer, even if they are both having a .500 season. A top 25 ISU Houston match-up not so much.

I don't quite agree on the first part. It only takes a little down time for historical programs to fall and not generate the interest. Look at Alabama before Saban. Look at Nebbie now.

 

[Clonedogg]

I don't quite agree on the first part. It only takes a little down time for historical programs to fall and not generate the interest. Look at Alabama before Saban. Look at Nebbie now.

But kNU still pulls in lots of eyeballs, maybe because of their matchups...?

 

[BMWallace]

Sure.... but saying ISU and Oregon State are similar is beyond ridiculous.

ISU football games generally get a pretty good TV audience week in and week out.... nobody gives a s**t about Oregon State. ISU is ranked quite high in fan attendance and TV audience. We have a lot more to offer than teams like Oregon State.... yet we always get treated in the media like we're one of the worst teams in the country with no fan support.

I get your sentiment, and wanting to show that ISU is a stronger brand than Oregon St. But for an Iowa State fan to say that any program like an OSU, or Wazzou, or BC, or Wake is somehow worthless, and "nobody gives a s**t" is hypocritical. That view point is the same that people outside Cyclone Nation and the Big 12 have been lobbing at us since 2010, and it doesn't help us at all to do the same to others that are now in the situation we were in just last year.

What we need to do is argue and show that without the ISU's and OSU's of the world, the value of college football as a media property is lessened. We need to show solidarity with the programs in our weight class, not try to take them down. Because post-OUT has shown that there will only be so many seats at the big table, so it is in our best interest to make it so the next table cannot be viewed as just an afterthought.

 

[Statefan10]

Sadly though, I think there is a lot of value in selling the brands of the match up even if they aren't good. Texas vs LSU is easy to market to a casual viewer, even if they are both having a .500 season. A top 25 ISU Houston match-up not so much.

Oh for sure they’ll have more eyeballs on the first game but I’m just saying the product is meh and the actual fans of those teams are going to be very disappointed when they realize what they’ve signed up for. OU going .500 a lot of years will be quite marvelous.

 

[drmwevr08]

But kNU still pulls in lots of eyeballs, maybe because of their matchups...?

A lot of fans they have but you think its as good as 1998?

 

[isucy86]

Stew is awful but he is spot on with this observation. Keeping the quote short to respect the paywall.

“The execs at Fox and ESPN don’t have any sort of civic responsibility toward Iowa State or Oregon State fans; their only obligation is to their shareholders. They are making a multi-billion dollar bet that while loyal, local college football fans may be alienated by the changing tides, they are going to draw in millions and millions of new fans with more NFL-esque version of the sport where every Saturday is Ohio State vs. Penn State, followed by Texas vs. Alabama, followed by Georgia vs. Oklahoma, followed by Michigan at USC. Less charm, more blockbusters.”

We know that the suits at Fox and ESPN don’t give a **** about us; that’s a fact. ESPN tried to G5 us because they thought it would be convenient for OU and Texas.

It’s clear that what Stew describes is their hope. It’s not at all clear to me that this hope would become reality. I watch football most of Saturday for most weeks in the fall; I’d almost certainly reduce that heavily (if not give it up entirely) and increase my NFL fandom if Iowa State got relegated.

The only problem with that logic is the casual fan might watch just Texas vs Bama. But they won't watch Texas vs S. Carolina.

The avid fan might sit down and watch 3 games a weekend. Alienate that avid fan and they become a casual fan- watching only their favorite team.

 

[Statefan10]

I get your sentiment, and wanting to show that ISU is a stronger brand than Oregon St. But for an Iowa State fan to say that any program like an OSU, or Wazzou, or BC, or Wake is somehow worthless, and "nobody gives a s**t" is hypocritical. That view point is the same that people outside Cyclone Nation and the Big 12 have been lobbing at us since 2010, and it doesn't help us at all to do the same to others that are now in the situation we were in just last year.

What we need to do is argue and show that without the ISU's and OSU's of the world, the value of college football as a media property is lessened. We need to show solidarity with the programs in our weight class, not try to take them down. Because post-OUT has shown that there will only be so many seats at the big table, so it is in our best interest to make it so the next table cannot be viewed as just an afterthought.

While what you said is true, that’s not what our conference commissioner cares about at the moment. He cares about getting the teams in the current conference a seat at the table, which will include bringing *some* teams from the PAC as well as scooping up some ACC teams whenever that falls as well.

Just like Vandy and Rutgers belong because of pure luck, we’re going to belong as well because of luck.

 

[NorthCyd]

The problem with Mandel's idea that the networks should just be interested in an NFL light model to maximize revenue is it fails to see what makes college football a popular alternative to the NFL. The history, tradition, and upsets like App State over Michigan are what make college football special. Trying to compete with the NFL at their own game at the same time of year is a losing strategy long term. NFL light may very well be where this is headed, but it's going to kill the golden goose IMO.

 

[isucy86]

Even in the NFL, a Dallas v. Jacksonville will get a good TV spot because of the Cowboy brand.

Dallas vs Jacksonville will get 1 TV spot- noon. Maybe Thursday night on Amazon.

As a Cowboy fan, I can say fan interest isn't a constant. When the Cowboys struggle my interest in watching other games on Sunday ebbs & flows. Its been years since I watched a Monday night game unless it was the Cowboys.

So fan loyalty can be a fickle thing. Just ask MLB.

 

[BMWallace]

I don’t know if it’s a good comparison, but this model works fine for the NFL.

It works for the NFL because they have basically always been an expanding league throughout their history. The last NFL team to fold was in 1952. Ever since it has always been expansion, especially with the NFL/AFL merger. It has been a constant move to make the tent bigger and bring more fans in that way. Team relocation is really the only thing the NFL has done to alienate large groups of fans.

This is opposed to what college football has been doing, which is consolidating, and making the tent smaller. The power brokers (broadcasters) think they can reduce the number of teams that they deem relevant, and somehow the fans of the now "irrelevant" teams will follow along.

 

[drmwevr08]

It works for the NFL because they have basically always been an expanding league throughout their history. The last NFL team to fold was in 1952. Ever since it has always been expansion, especially with the NFL/AFL merger. It has been a constant move to make the tent bigger and bring more fans in that way. Team relocation is really the only thing the NFL has done to alienate large groups of fans.

This is opposed to what college football has been doing, which is consolidating, and making the tent smaller. The power brokers (broadcasters) think they can reduce the number of teams that they deem relevant, and somehow the fans of the now "irrelevant" teams will follow along.

And it may work for a while. I suspect most will watch a little still but if ISU goes away nobody's picking a 'new favorite team'. This seems likely for most of the fringe players like ISU.

 

[Stormin]

I get your sentiment, and wanting to show that ISU is a stronger brand than Oregon St. But for an Iowa State fan to say that any program like an OSU, or Wazzou, or BC, or Wake is somehow worthless, and "nobody gives a s**t" is hypocritical. That view point is the same that people outside Cyclone Nation and the Big 12 have been lobbing at us since 2010, and it doesn't help us at all to do the same to others that are now in the situation we were in just last year.

What we need to do is argue and show that without the ISU's and OSU's of the world, the value of college football as a media property is lessened. We need to show solidarity with the programs in our weight class, not try to take them down. Because post-OUT has shown that there will only be so many seats at the big table, so it is in our best interest to make it so the next table cannot be viewed as just an afterthought.

Oregon State and Washington State have football stadiums that have the seating capacity of Clyde Williams Field. They can make their own case for inclusion. Remember how they stuck by us and included Iowa State last year? Me neither. They can join Mountain West.

 

[BryceC]

I don't want to spend $1. Can someone summarize?

Stew either doesn't acknowledge the MANY projections of conference TV revenue out there comparing the Big 12 and PAC, or he is completely ignorant of them. Kind of a mystery.