Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[RustShack]

If the PAC is dissolved, that may set up nicely for us to land CBS and Fox, then tier three can be Amazon/Apple/paramount/Netflix/whoever is the highest bidder.

 

[Rods79]

I've heard both... that USC/UCLA reached out first, and that FOX led the charge. Hard to tell. I just think he did a good job of not reacting too quickly to the SEC power play last summer, and being able to keep the lid on this throughout the negotiations for the new B1G media deal.

Lot of assumptions here. How long did he have to keep the lid on it…48 hours? After OuT…all those scenarios were in already in play with FOX and everyone knew it…let’s not forget.

 

[isucy86]

Can’t the Big12 pull the offer to Houston or UCF if they wanted? No new media contract or GoR has been signed, that I’m aware of.

Your assuming the Big12 is still going to have the remaining 8 by the time the TV contract is renegotiated.

Now that the Big10 has added USC & UCLA- the dominoes are going to start falling fast. Within a week we will hear about the next group of Pac12 teams that are going to join the Big12. IMO Cal, Stanford, Oregon & Washington are sure bets to the Big10.

From there it's who brings more value to the SEC or Big10 when it comes to the remnants of the Pac12 AND Big12. This following round of realignment will be about adding complimentary schools. The Harlem Globtrotters NEEDED the Washington Generals!

I expect most Pac12 & Big12 teams will have value in future Big10/SEC realignment to get to 20-24 schools for each conference:

• SEC - Okie State, Baylor, TCU, Arizona State or BYU
• Big10 or SEC - Iowa State, Kansas, Colorado, Arizona, Utah

 

[cyIclSoneU]

If we are still in the "Rutgers and Maryland deliver NYC and DC" mode...nothing.

Too many people looking at this from the old lens. It's not about how many people live near the school that can be made to pay for a channel on a cable package... it's about how many people will actually watch the games.

Utah has a fanbase large enough to justify addition even with BYU already in the fold (which has its own nationwide fanbase).

 

[Crookedhatkid]

I can’t believe the UCLA board of regents approves this move. They will be leaving Cal (who they also control) to potentially get left in the lurch with a ton of stadium debt and possibly drying up income.

 

[clonedude]

I'm a purist too but it's the world we're in. There's no going back. Adapt or die.

Iowa didn't adapt... they're just riding the coat tails of schools like tOSU, Michigan, Penn State, and now USC and UCLA. Iowa didn't do anything.... so it's easy for you to tell teams to "adapt or die".

If Iowa was in ISU's position in the Big 12 over the past several decades, and ISU was in Iowa's position in the B1G.... you wouldn't be on here saying this. What kind of "adapting" should ISU be doing? They don't have any power to do much of anything at all..... same as Iowa frankly.... Iowa is just lucky to be in one of the two biggest conferences. Iowa was born on 3rd base and they believe they hit a triple.

 

[Gonzo]

Lot of assumptions here. How long did he have to keep the lid on it…48 hours? After OuT…all those scenarios were in already in play with FOX and everyone knew it…let’s not forget.

They've been negotiating the new B1G media rights deal for months. Obviously the conference and networks had to be factoring in the notion of USC and UCLA being in the conference as part of those negotiations. So no, it's been longer than 48 hours.

 

[Gonzo]

Iowa didn't adapt... they're just riding the coat tails of schools like tOSU, Michigan, Penn State, and now USC and UCLA. Iowa didn't do anything.... so it's easy for you to tell teams to "adapt or die".

If Iowa was in ISU's position in the Big 12 over the past several decades, and ISU was in Iowa's position in the B1G.... you wouldn't be on here saying this. What kind of "adapting" should ISU be doing? They don't have any power to do much of anything at all..... same as Iowa frankly.... Iowa is just lucky to be in one of the two biggest conferences. Iowa was born on 3rd base and they believe they hit a triple.

I was talking about the conference.

 

[Statefan10]

 

[Rods79]

They've been negotiating the new B1G media rights deal for months. Obviously the conference and networks had to be factoring in the notion of USC and UCLA being in the conference as part of those negotiations. So no, it's been longer than 48 hours.

Yeah, and we knew this all last year…they’ve been running these scenarios since then. It’s not like he had much to keep secret…everyone just went into a lull on the news as the sports seasons passed through.

 

[HFCS]

Too many people looking at this from the old lens. It's not about how many people live near the school that can be made to pay for a channel on a cable package... it's about how many people will actually watch the games.

Utah has a fanbase large enough to justify addition even with BYU already in the fold (which has its own nationwide fanbase).

Agree, and we should have added BYU a looooooooong time ago.

 

[Rods79]

No one’s tied to anyone any more. Money is king. There will be no issue.

 

[Gonzo]

Yeah, and we knew this all last year…they’ve been running these scenarios since then. It’s not like he had much to keep secret…everyone just went into a lull on the news as the sports seasons passed through.

You knew last year that USC and UCLA were joining the Big 10 in 2024?

Wow. Impressive.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

For what it’s worth I think the B1G knows it’s cleaner to take all of the coastal schools, let the B12 clean up in the mountains, and dissolve the league without a critical mass to file lawsuits (though WSU and OSU will likely try anyway).

 

[Rods79]

You knew last year that USC and UCLA were joining the Big 10 in 2024?

Wow. Impressive.

You didn’t?

 

[SCNCY]

I can’t believe the UCLA board of regents approves this move. They will be leaving Cal (who they also control) to potentially get left in the lurch with a ton of stadium debt and possibly drying up income.

How important are athletics to the Regents? In the SEC and Texas/OU, athletics sometimes takes priority over academics. Not sure if the same holds true in the PAC.

So it may just be a who cares, so long it doesn’t hurt the prestige of the school.

 

[Icky_Mettle]

Still can't believe the big 10 is bringing in a city school and directional school.

 

[Gonzo]

You didn’t?

Lol, no. Lots of scenarios and projections and predictions and guesses. But I'm guessing that when B1G leaders got into a room with FOX, NBC, ABC, CBS, Amazon, Apple, etc., to determine the value of the conference's media rights for the next decade they needed something a little more concrete than "well this could happen."

 

[Farnsworth]

I can tell you that here in Colorado, hardly anyone is even aware of this news today, nor cares. And this is the 17th biggest TV market in the country.

The more this sport becomes non-regional, the less people are going to watch nationally, and then these super conferences will make less money. These contracts make sense now but will they in 5 years? 10?

In 10 years, the top programs in the two super leagues will probably ask themselves again, "why are we carrying this dead weight?" and then break off again to create a super super league. Then the whole cycle will start over again and half of the super super teams will want to break off again. Somebody has to lose these games. And unless a salary (NIL) cap comes into play, there will be perennial losers and winners. Even with a cap, half the country wont watch if their teams arent in the picture.

I dont like super leagues, I liked it when each conference had a couple top dogs. It's fun to play David to like the UT/OU goliath back in the day

 

[isucy86]

Which is more likely: PAC stays alive and promotes 2 from the MWC. PAC dies and the final 2 from the PAC join the MWC?

Pac10 is done. The Big10 isn't going to stop at USC & UCLA. And I am doubtful the SEC will sit by if there are Pac12 or Big12 schools that add value to them.

IMO a few more "elite" media value plays will fall in the next week and then it becomes like the board game Risk. The Big10 & SEC trying to flank each other and gain territory. IMO schools like ISU, KU, CU, ASU, AU, UU will have value to the Big10 & SEC to gain/protect territory.