It's real funny to see how depressed UT fans are now. They are blaming an and m for leaking the SEC exit early and their own administrators for “not being tough with Fox.” Talk about delusional.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
- Start date
Not sure where you are getting you 60% bump per school for adding Pac12 teams. If that's true then not sure what Oregon & Washington or any other Pac12 school are waiting for to join the Big12.
If I am guessing, by adding Oregon & Washington the Big12 per school annual revenue would probably jump by less than $5M annually ($32 to $37M). Any media rights value for Oregon & Washington above the Big12's current $32M has to be split 14 ways. If Oregon & Washington had that much incremental value, they would be in the Big10 with USC & UCLA.
IMO the primary value propostion of the Big12 adding Pac12 schools isn't "incremental" annual revenue per school. But adding Pac12 schools as creating strength in numbers. The Big12 would be the dominant P5 presence west of the Mississippi. By adding the top Pac12 teams, Big12 fans would have more reasons to watch Big12/Pac12 teams. In other words, not watch Big10 or SEC games. It also preps the Big12 to add ACC teams if/when that time arises.
Also, while G5 schools are part of the discussion today. I am not convinced that will be the case in the 2030's. The Big12 has already grabbed top G5 programs in Cincy, UCF and Houston. Who from a G5 perspective is poised to win CFB Playoff games, USF, Tulane, Boise, SDSU, Memphis? I feel that G5 teams will get a playoff bid for 6 years, go something like 1-5 and P5 schools will question why they are giving $300-$400M annually to G5 schools.
Maybe they’re closer than I thought after reading that article. The only way forward though does seem to be giving Fox future non-con games. Realistically Fox would need to replace those 8 games between now and 2030.
Texas is going to need to replace Florida and Georgia in 2028-2030. Baylor has open non-con dates for a P5 team in 2029-2030. Seems perfect, just gotta find six more games like that. Or 5 more games and cash. Or 4 more games and more cash. Houston or Cincy have the next most open spots btw.
Honestly, I hope we can get rid of OUT after 2023. Sending one of them to the 12 team playoff as Big 12 champ would be a disaster
The elevator clause is different than just adding a school and needing them to add value.
The way I understand the elevator clause is this
If the Big12 adds enough teams in a new window, Ie Mountain and Pacific time zones, that would trigger the elevator clause. These teams need to be P5 level with near equal or higher value as current schools. Not G5.
When that clause is triggered it allows for either a new Media partner to enter to pick up the new expansion of content or the current members to increase the deal by as much as 40%-60%. As I said I quoted that 60% on an each team basis, but it is probably on the total deal. So increase our total package by 60% then divide by 16 or 18 teams rather than 12 teams with the current deal. Not as much but still a significant increase.
The reason this is not a cut and dry deal for the teams to just come. Is because 1 or 2 teams is probably not enough, it probably needs to be 4+. And getting 4 teams all together and on the same page to blow up a conference and jump like this is not as easy as some believe, especially when trying to not get involved in a bunch of lawsuits from other members for collusion, tortuous interference, etc.
And I am sure the Big12 cant just go to these schools and say hey if you and you and you come here we will get this. For a number of reasons, like the above, lawsuit issues, that the final details of how much would need to be negotiated etc.
I am not saying I know all the details but I have seem or heard several things over the months on this elevator built into the contract...keeping in mind the full contract details have not been made fully public.
Like I said if the Big 12 was able to add 6 teams of the PAC and ESPN had to pay an additional 60% of the total on the top of our contract for that extra content and then pay nothing for a PAC contract they are still making out very well, getting the content they want for a discount, and if that is further split between a new media partner or Fox, they are getting it even cheaper, keeping in mind ESPN really at this point only needs 1 game a week for their late night window, and would be willing to split some of the rest with another partner.
Yea, would think for any Big12/Pac12 expansion it would require that ABC, Fox, CBS or NBC have interest in televising a Big12/Pac12 game on Sat afternoon/primetime. Also, would be curious if ESPN would want Amazon or any other streaming platform to be an additional media partner. Maybe that is why there is the escalator clause as ESPN would want rights of first refusal to keep Pac12 inventory on ESPN/ESPN+.
I completely agree that just adding Oregon & Washington makes zero sense. Even with the BYU add. I look at the Big10's addition of USC and UCLA and I don't hear a lot of excitement by Big10 fans. They are the equivalent of a "Third Nipple"! Adding those 2 schools looked good at the time, but not sure the Big10 knows what to do with them.
If the Big12 adds west coast programs, hope they add enough teams to create a 4 or 6 team "protected rival" group that includes BYU. Wouldn't mind ISU in a protected rival group that includes: KU, KSU, OSU, CU plus a Texas team.
Big ten fans are pretty happy adding USC/UCLA. Happier with the expanded playoff though. the only reason some people might not like it is if their teams have awful west coast records.
Where are you listening? Pretty sure there's a lot of excitement adding USC and UCLA, at least with the Iowa fans I know. The only ones who aren't excited are the old, uber traditionalists who want the world to go back to 1985 and are against pretty much all new expansions in college football.
I still think CBS is in play if this happens.
ABC is ESPN. ESPN/ABC has most of what they need from the ACC, SEC, and Big12 contracts. They just need the late night game each week. Which is only 1 game a week. Not going to pay top dollar to the Pac for only needing 1 game.
Fox has the B1G and Big 12.
NBC has ND and 1 game a week from B1G, which is more content than now, I would assume this is satisfactory for them for this round.
CBS is losing their content on SEC and only getting 1 game a week I believe from the B1G. They have no interest in a late night game.
So they could easily come on if the Big 12 picks up 4-6 teams and the clause is activated. ESPN could fill their late window, and CBS could get another game or 2 per week from the rest of the content. Filling up their schedule with content from the B1G and now Big12 that they lost from the SEC.
ESPN and CBS would be able to bid on the escalator clause, because it would be at a discount rate vs a full contract with a complete new conference like the Pac. So they could get the content they want for 60 cents on the dollar, vs paying the PAC for it, being that would be a full new contract with a separate conference vs elevating a current contract in the Big12.
Its just whether the schools can and will leave the Pac etc without causing a huge lawsuit or fight etc.
Pretty happy isn't the same buzz as a decade ago when the Big10 added Maryland and Nebraska. Obviously, the Rutgers add was about adding an AAU school that brought the NYC market.
Not 100% sure who you were talking to but I don’t know anyone that was excited about Maryland or Nebraska. Both schools were on the downturn and really weren’t seen as anything more then a money grab. Once they actually join the conference you will hear more but we still have another 1.5 season of cbb and another cfb season before that happens.
Edit* to be fair I don’t know any Minn fans and only one Iowa fan so maybe nebraskas proximity made Iowa fans happier. I just know most big ten fans laughed because Nebraska was supposed to come in and “dominate” the west and compete for titles
Wonder what this may mean for the acc. Sounds like if the networks say so, the gor isnt the impassable barrier we thought.
It means nothing new for the ACC. Only strengthens the GoR if OuuT can’t get out even 1 year early, not to mention 10+ years.
LOL, so with that thinking if the GOR was not that difficult to get out of.....wouldnt they already be gone? They cant even get out of a year of the GOR so far.
Why do you say that? If OUT can't leave a year early, why would ACC schools get out 10+ years early?
I'm sure there could be a number agreed upon that the ACC would accept to break the GOR. The thing is, that number is going be gigantic. The full value of the school's rights under the GOR is a low-ball starting point. So probably something like $500m per school at this point, and maybe more. Remember, the ACC has no reason to negotiate.
We were legit just making fun of people for bringing up the ACC GOR and like magic one appears
I don't think it has as much to do with the GoR as it does with what ESPN/FOX want. Seems like they're calling the shots, not the conferences.
Its both, problem is you have to please all parties, and if just 1 doesnt agree, then it is a no go. And when it comes to some of this, as in GoR and Media partners. The money number gets so high that no one can afford the buyout. Everyone has to be made whole.
So far 1 or 2 years is too hard. Because even if they can buy out the conference, the media value is too great. and you have to buy out both. And in a case like the Big12 you have multiple media partners to buy out.
When you talk about the ACC, short of a vote to dissolve the conference I dont think anything could possibly make up the money needed to get out of the conference at this point. And even a vote to dissolve, could still put those voting to dissolve liable for the loss of the income of the contract to the others voting against them, and the media partner if they do not support it.
Meaning even if 8 schools vote to dissolve the conference in the ACC, that will void the contracts and GoR etc. That does not mean the other 6 schools and ESPN etc could not sue those 8 schools for breach of contract and the loss of earnings from the contract they voted to void.
The only reason they didn't leave was bc of one of the networks. Shows if the networks want it, it can happen.
Agree. ESPN and FOX basically own these conferences at this point. If they want something to happen, a GoR isn't going to stop it from happening, because they're the source of the money.
