The ACC still couldn't pay them close to what they'd make in the B1G. I'd think the ACC knows that they're gone with an invite from the B1G or SEC no matter what, so why pay them more now and p*ss off the schools they have a chance at holding on to?
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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All depends on what ESPN wants to do. Do they want to consolidate the the name brand schools in to a single conference, or do they want to fill their content slots?
Agree but once the ACC's GoR has expired, or even just almost expired, there's only so much ESPN can do. If they pay up to keep those top schools in the ACC or lure them to the SEC, they're going to have to pay up a lot. And at the end of the day, it's still the individual school's choice whether to stay or go, if they have an invite to somewhere else.
You can only get so many free articles to read on SI- but I had to open an incognito window to read this. If it doesn't work for you- I pasted the Big 12/Pac 12 portion below.
The Big 12 and Pac-12
Back to that fight out West.The Pac-12-Big 12 realignment battle will either cause small ripples across the national landscape (this happens if the Pac-12 remains intact), or trigger a tidal wave of change stretching from coast to coast (this happens if the Pac-12 has more defections).
It all hinges on the viability of the Pac-12’s new broadcasting contract, both from a financial and visibility perspective (sure, the money could be better or the same as the Big 12, but what if most of the games are on streaming?). The league is in the 10th month of negotiations. And believable details from those negotiations have been scarce.
The Pac-12’s potential instability has been the single-most speculated subject across the college sports landscape over the last few months. Through it all, the conference has publicly shown confidence in the face of assumptions of its impending doom.
One experienced executive describes the entire situation as the most “perplexing” he’s ever witnessed in media rights negotiations.
Factions have formed.
Those inside the Big 12, gunning for Pac-12 defections, believe the league is cooked. Those in the Pac-12, wanting to protect its 10 schools, believe the league will arrive at a strong enough deal coinciding with a short grant-of-rights (4 to 6 years). And then there is the media, which has produced varying reports of the situation, even sometimes sparring with one another over those reports.
One thing is certain: The Pac-12 plans to expand by adding San Diego State and maybe SMU coinciding with its completion of a new TV deal. But there is a deadline. To start play in 2024, San Diego State owes the Mountain West an exit fee of about $17 million. That triples in cost on July 1, a reason for a quasi-deadline to the situation.
One athletic administrator offers his own prediction on the outcome: “I think the highest odds - and it may not be more than 50% - is that the Pac-12 salvages something in the short term to keep it together and it is Dead Man Walking for four years, with the Big Ten and Big 12 sitting there.”
But what if it doesn’t salvage something?
Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark is aggressively pursuing expansion targets in an attempt to reach 14 or 16 members. Top priority are the Arizona schools, Colorado and Utah, but there are plenty of other potential replacements if the Pac-12 programs choose to stay.
Though San Diego State seems bound for the Pac-12—it is their preference—Yormark has held conversations with the school’s leadership about being the Big 12’s only program in the Pacific Time zone. UConn, the reigning men’s basketball champions, is a play for a foothold in the northeast as well as adding another basketball powerhouse to what currently is the best hoops league in the country. And of Memphis, the Tigers finished as a finalist the last time the Big 12 expanded.
Yormark’s interest in UNLV seems like a calculated maneuver. Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff, a former casino executive who resides in Las Vegas, is slowly shifting the conference’s hub to Sin City. In an interesting wrinkle, could Kliavkoff’s targeting of SMU be a similar play? SMU is located in the Big 12’s own hub city of Dallas.
The Big 12’s expansion decisions could be solidified in a matter of weeks. Conference administrators meet at the end of the month in West Virginia, including school presidents.
Ill be pissed if we add UNLV or Memphis lmao. No way that happens.
I doubt that is going to happen. I suspect Yormark is just using those schools to tell the current targets that they need make a decision earlier than later and they aren't guaranteed a spot they drag their feet. Could help prevent the short term (3-4 years) GOR UW and OU they seem open to.
Just like Texas and OU. Negotiated divorce.
I've said this before, but it's a numbers game. Each year that goes by, is one year less of damages that a school would need to pay. Texas and OU could stomach one year, which they did. But could they stomach to do two, the answer to that seemed to be no.
Since a precedent has been set (Texas and OU buyout), schools like FSU, Miami, and Clemson can use that in their calculations. I would think those schools could stomach a couple more years than what OU and Texas did, primarily since the media contact from them is relatively low, and the disparity between what other conferences make and the ACC will be much greater come by the early 2030's when a new round of negotiations begin.
If FSU, Clemson, and Miami are leaving anyway, why would you increase their payment in earlier years to finance their lower buyout in the future. Not real smart. They will take your money. And you will just end up with less. And they leave possibly earlier because of the extra money you gave them. The increase they seek is not even feasible.
ESPN is not going to renegotiate.
I am not saying ESPN should negotiate. And your right, about the other schools funding the bigger schools buyout. If they decided to do that, it'd just delay the inevitable at that point and it'll be an awkward 10 or so years of those schools being together.
Personally, I think there's a good chance the conference could disband and no penalty will be paid out (If this is allowed in their GOR). I think half of the schools in the conference have a landing spot in either the SEC or Big10.
I've thought all along that the outcome for this realignment crisis will be determined by the 4-corner schools. If any one of them defect, the Pac likely crumbles. If they all stay put, the Pac likely survives, at least for the short term.
Now I'm starting to think San Diego State is becoming a bigger variable in the current realignment stalemate. Beginning July 1, their exit fee to the Mountain West Conference increases from $17 million to $51 million, so it seems very likely they will declare their new home within the next month or so.
While San Diego State prefers the Pac for geographic reasons, they also prefer long-term financial security, which at this point seems much more likely in the Big 12. If they choose the Pac, it may be just enough to convince the 4-corners to stay put for now. If they choose the Big 12, Yormark can tell the 4-corners there's one less spot available for them, which would only increase the pressure for them to bolt.
Either way, I have a feeling the current stalemate in the Big 12/Pac 12 battle is going to break loose before July 1.
Now I'm starting to think San Diego State is becoming a bigger variable in the current realignment stalemate. Beginning July 1, their exit fee to the Mountain West Conference increases from $17 million to $51 million, so it seems very likely they will declare their new home within the next month or so.
While San Diego State prefers the Pac for geographic reasons, they also prefer long-term financial security, which at this point seems much more likely in the Big 12. If they choose the Pac, it may be just enough to convince the 4-corners to stay put for now. If they choose the Big 12, Yormark can tell the 4-corners there's one less spot available for them, which would only increase the pressure for them to bolt.
Either way, I have a feeling the current stalemate in the Big 12/Pac 12 battle is going to break loose before July 1.
Honestly, this shows how far our conference has come in such a short amount of time. They were seriously vetted not even two years ago. We had a handful of posters on this board that would have liked to see Memphis added.
Now the idea seems laughable. That's the power of Yormark's leadership.
I think it’s more dependent on when Kliavkoff finally brings a deal to the table to show their members. He needs to be more concerned with getting palatable numbers and exposure for current schools and securing a GOR rather than worrying about an escalation for SDSU’s buyout. Even if he needs to keep shopping them around on the market going into August- I think he will.
I don’t think the Big 12 potentially grabbing SDSU is even on his radar unless they’re unable to tie up a GOR with Oregon and Washington for 5 more years or so- which should be at the top of his list (and I’m sure that alone is going to be a very tall mountain to climb).
Schools that line up a new conference would lose their vote on the matter to disband. Unless all 14 schools plus ND are going to the B10 or SEC, this is less likely to happen than the ACC extending their current deal for another 20 years.
Why would a school *publicly announce a departure before disbanding their current conference? Lots of legal tangling I'm sure.
If they didn't and it was shown that they had an agreement in place when they voted, it would also be a slam dunk for lawsuits. Private schools may be able to get away with that, but public schools would have a problem hiding that with FOIA requests. The new conference would get drug into that and it would cost them a lot of money.
