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Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

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HouClone

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Ray Anderson's (ASU AD) timeline: July-August media deal, sign GOR, expand. Huh? Before you know it, they'll move the goal post to June 30, 2024, the day before the current deal ends. In terms of the GOR, the new Pac deal will be the shortest in history. I say 4 years. On expansion, wouldn't you expand first, then sign the media deal? The Pac is in serious trouble.

Danny Kanell on Sirius radio today said "for the health of college football", he hopes the Pac breaks up in lieu of signing some low end, crappy, short media deal.
 
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cykadelic2

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exCyDing said:
Schools would likely see an ROI if they could get out of the ACC and into the B10/SEC/B12, but I think you're total figure is low and you skipped some issues that will have to be resolved or bought out.

So let's say they decide to do it. First order or business is the ACC buyout: $120M each.

Next, the left behind schools will probably lose out about $10m per year if their new TV deal is in the ballpark of what the AAC gets. So that's $400m, or another $40m from each school leaving. $160M

Now here's where things start to get interesting.

First, if the ACC sticks together, it's still a P4/5 conference and will get CFP money accordingly. How much? Really hard to say at this point. Suffice to say, it'll be a whole lot more than they'll get as a non-power conference member. Will they just give this up? No they will not. They currently get like $5M, but the next deal should double that. Another $40M each! $200M

Next, if the ACC sticks together, those schools get the prestige of being the P4/5 conference. How much is that worth? This one is harder to quantify, but maybe $4M per year? $240M.

Here's one that's tougher yet. Notre Dame. First, they get about $10M a year from the ACC for their non-football sports + 5 FB games. The ACC solves a lot of problems they'd otherwise have in keeping their FB independent. Money's not the most important thing for ND, and ESPN/Fox have no sway with them (assuming they re-up with NBC). Maybe they agree for $30M for each of the 10 years? $30M each, $270M total.

So the B12 doesn't work as a destination. $32M * 10 = $320M- $270M = $50M. All that work and negotiating to come out with $120M less than if you did nothing. If the can get out for $120M, makes sense. If the B10/SEC 6 blow up the ACC, even better. Otherwise? They're stuck.

So some of the buying out gets shifted to the B10/SEC schools. I think there's six of them (UNC, UVA, Miami, FSU, Clemson and either NC State or VA Tech, but not both). Leaving everything else the same (and assuming the 4 the B12 picks up just kind of let it all slide since they'll be better off if they can get out for free/just the $120M exit fee), those six would have to shoulder about $300M each. Their break-even point is at ~$47M per year for the TV portion. Doable, but not exactly massive after all the up-front investment.

Still unanswered: Where do these schools get the $270M+ needed up front to make this happen?
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Yeah, in order for the ACC to break their GOR and have all 15 school migrate to other conferences, the following would have to happen:

If ACC by-laws and GOR are similar to the B12"s (and I have read nothing to dispute that). any attempt to break the GOR and migrate ACC schools to the SEC, B12 and B10 prior to 2036 would have to mean all 15 ACC schools (including ND) are taken care of to their satisfaction and the other conferences all agreeing to take on those schools.

ESPN would have to be willing to sign off on losing 100% rights to marquee ACC MBB programs (e.g. UNC, Duke, etc.) and potentially losing the rights to ND games at ACC venues. I don't think that is going to happen.

If ESPN wants to get back B10 inventory by voluntarily giving up UNC, UVa, etc. to the B10, that would mean NBC, CBS and Fox/BTN would all have to agree to give up B10 inventory to ESPN under the terms of their new TV deal that runs through the rest of this decade. I don't think that is going to happen.

And I have my doubts that the SEC is willing to expand beyond 16 prior to expiration of their new TV deal with ESPN through 2034.
 
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cyman05

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HouClone said:
Ray Anderson's (ASU AD) timeline: July-August media deal, sign GOR, expand. Huh? Before you know it, they'll move the goal post to June 30, 2024, the day before the current deal ends. In terms of the GOR, the new Pac deal will be the shortest in history. I say 4 years. On expansion, wouldn't you expand first, then sign the media deal? The Pac is in serious trouble.

Danny Kanell on Sirius radio today said "for the health of college football", he hopes the Pac breaks up in lieu of signing some low end, crappy, short media deal.
Click to expand...
I don’t think these pac 12 ADs are on the same page or know what’s going on. This came out recently too which contradicts ray’s statement and all the others statements saying the deal was supposed to be signed back in March.

247sports.com

Exclusive: WSU President Kirk Schulz eyes Pac-12 media rights deal in 'next few weeks to a month'

'When it happens, folks, the dominoes are going to fall quickly.' In one-on-one with CF.C, WSU President also talks Pac-12 expansion and IPF
247sports.com 247sports.com
 
AuH2O

AuH2O

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clone52 said:
If it makes financial sense for the SEC and Big 10, why on earth would you wait until 2036?

If it happens, it would be because there is a financial benefit for the SEC and Big 10. It's plausible there is.
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There’s no wary it makes financial sense for the conferences. By the conferences, we mean member schools. None of the ACC schools are boosting per school value even remotely close to enough for current schools to shell out tons of money to ACC leftovers.

And again, it is only worth it to the schools if their customers (networks) say it is worth it to them.

None of the schools out there, not Notre Dame, not Clemson, and sure as hell none of the others are worth what UT and OU. Yet somehow a WAY smaller price tag was still too high to get them out right away.

And again, it would need to be Fox and NBC pushing this and ultimately picking up the tab in the end. If you think they want to shell out hundreds of millions to split coverage of a few ACC teams in the Big 10? You think ESPN is eager to pay a few ACC teams SEC money when they already have them at a fraction of the cost?
 
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Gunnerclone

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AuH2O said:
There’s no wary it makes financial sense for the conferences. By the conferences, we mean member schools. None of the ACC schools are boosting per school value even remotely close to enough for current schools to shell out tons of money to ACC leftovers.

And again, it is only worth it to the schools if their customers (networks) say it is worth it to them.

None of the schools out there, not Notre Dame, not Clemson, and sure as hell none of the others are worth what UT and OU. Yet somehow a WAY smaller price tag was still too high to get them out right away.

And again, it would need to be Fox and NBC pushing this and ultimately picking up the tab in the end. If you think they want to shell out hundreds of millions to split coverage of a few ACC teams in the Big 10? You think ESPN is eager to pay a few ACC teams SEC money when they already have them at a fraction of the cost?
Click to expand...

Depends on what their future visions are.
 
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AuH2O

AuH2O

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Gunnerclone said:
When do World Cup


Depends on what their future visions are.
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I don't think it matters that much - those exact same visions can happen in a few years when the price tag goes down. Unless there's some big fear by the SEC or Big 10 (or their media partners) that the other is going to swoop in and write a MASSIVE check to get brands they want. Frankly I don't think any of the brands left would be devastating if the other got them. ND is probably the only one that would hurt to lose, and they are in a different situation. Plus I highly doubt the risk is high they go to the SEC.

Getting, missing out on, or replacing any of the ACC or PAC teams right now is all completely in the margins for the Big 10 and SEC. Unless one of the leagues is going to take the top 6 or so ACC brands, I just don't see the big deal.

SEC is a little different story, but what people need to understand is the other players in the Big 10 don't matter. They don't matter. None of the teams that might join matter, save for ND. Networks are paying for whatever other teams are in the Big 10 to show Ohio State, and to a lesser extent Michigan, and to a lesser extent beyond that Penn State and Wisconsin.

You add UVA and UNC or you add UW and Oregon, or you add NC State and Va Tech, or you add Miami and FSU, hell you add Cal-Stanford - it doesn't matter. The difference among whatever they add is all washed out by the value to show OSU and Michigan. The actual difference in value in all the potential adds is fairly small. Then you divide whatever small difference that is between the teams and we're talking about noise.

The difference in the additions that are possible are like sweating it out over a little bit better dinner roll to add to the Ohio State-Michigan 40 oz. Porterhouse.
 
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knowlesjam

knowlesjam

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AuH2O said:
I don't think it matters that much - those exact same visions can happen in a few years when the price tag goes down. Unless there's some big fear by the SEC or Big 10 (or their media partners) that the other is going to swoop in and write a MASSIVE check to get brands they want. Frankly I don't think any of the brands left would be devastating if the other got them. ND is probably the only one that would hurt to lose, and they are in a different situation. Plus I highly doubt the risk is high they go to the SEC.

Getting, missing out on, or replacing any of the ACC or PAC teams right now is all completely in the margins for the Big 10 and SEC. Unless one of the leagues is going to take the top 6 or so ACC brands, I just don't see the big deal.

SEC is a little different story, but what people need to understand is the other players in the Big 10 don't matter. They don't matter. None of the teams that might join matter, save for ND. Networks are paying for whatever other teams are in the Big 10 to show Ohio State, and to a lesser extent Michigan, and to a lesser extent beyond that Penn State and Wisconsin.

You add UVA and UNC or you add UW and Oregon, or you add NC State and Va Tech, or you add Miami and FSU, hell you add Cal-Stanford - it doesn't matter. The difference among whatever they add is all washed out by the value to show OSU and Michigan. The actual difference in value in all the potential adds is fairly small. Then you divide whatever small difference that is between the teams and we're talking about noise.

The difference in the additions that are possible are like sweating it out over a little bit better dinner roll to add to the Ohio State-Michigan 40 oz. Porterhouse.
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This.

Whoever they add, beyond ND, is simply going to slightly water down the $'s each BIG or SEC team gets. The networks are going to play OSU...Michigan, Alabama, Georgia,...then whoever is left gets the available slots based on perceived market value...so yeah, Texas, Penn State, Wisky, OU, etc., etc. etc. Everyone else...will get play when they play the above teams. As to expansion, there really is no time line...if the PAC implodes, then sure, the BIG can pick up Oregon and Washington dirt cheap (hammer them hard the first 5-8 years before they become full time shareholders. Plus, it gives the BIG a four team pod out West. Maybe pick up Utah and ASU too...six team pod out West even better as there are 5 BIG games each where they don't have to travel much , and only need 4 more games (2 home and 2 away) where they can minimize the travel issues even more. I think the Washington/Oregon question is behind the lack of a deal in the PAC right now....we will see. No way Oregon/Washington agree to any GOR past 3-4 years.
 
exCyDing

exCyDing

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cykadelic2 said:
Yeah, in order for the ACC to break their GOR and have all 15 school migrate to other conferences, the following would have to happen:

If ACC by-laws and GOR are similar to the B12"s (and I have read nothing to dispute that). any attempt to break the GOR and migrate ACC schools to the SEC, B12 and B10 prior to 2036 would have to mean all 15 ACC schools (including ND) are taken care of to their satisfaction and the other conferences all agreeing to take on those schools.

ESPN would have to be willing to sign off on losing 100% rights to marquee ACC MBB programs (e.g. UNC, Duke, etc.) and potentially losing the rights to ND games at ACC venues. I don't think that is going to happen.

If ESPN wants to get back B10 inventory by voluntarily giving up UNC, UVa, etc. to the B10, that would mean NBC, CBS and Fox/BTN would all have to agree to give up B10 inventory to ESPN under the terms of their new TV deal that runs through the rest of this decade. I don't think that is going to happen.

And I have my doubts that the SEC is willing to expand beyond 16 prior to expiration of their new TV deal with ESPN through 2034.
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There are so many potential sticking points, it's kind of silly to think it's plausible everyone comes to an agreement. There's no win/win available for everyone.

Most notably, I don't think there's enough money to get schools who aren't going to the B10/SEC/B12 to agree to effectively be relegated. Yes, it's probably going to happen in the next 13 years anyway, but they'll still be very rich by G5 standards even without a massive buyout and all that money can't buy the prestige and visibility of being in a P conference.

Then there's Notre Dame, who probably doesn't need to money to begin with and would prefer to have their non-football sports in a Power Conference. Yeah, yeah, they could go to the Big East. However, they're still going to have to fill 5 more weekends every year, and it's quite likely going to get tougher to fill those games with schools from a power conference. That hurts their CFP chances, and their TV ratings will probably drop if they have to fill those weekends up with G5 cupcakes.

The biggest thing is, any one ACC school could refuse to budge and put the kibosh on the whole plan. Sure, their conference mates might hate them, but so ******* what? Those schools just tried to relegate them, there's no love lost.
 
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FriendlySpartan

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AuH2O said:
I don't think it matters that much - those exact same visions can happen in a few years when the price tag goes down. Unless there's some big fear by the SEC or Big 10 (or their media partners) that the other is going to swoop in and write a MASSIVE check to get brands they want. Frankly I don't think any of the brands left would be devastating if the other got them. ND is probably the only one that would hurt to lose, and they are in a different situation. Plus I highly doubt the risk is high they go to the SEC.

Getting, missing out on, or replacing any of the ACC or PAC teams right now is all completely in the margins for the Big 10 and SEC. Unless one of the leagues is going to take the top 6 or so ACC brands, I just don't see the big deal.

SEC is a little different story, but what people need to understand is the other players in the Big 10 don't matter. They don't matter. None of the teams that might join matter, save for ND. Networks are paying for whatever other teams are in the Big 10 to show Ohio State, and to a lesser extent Michigan, and to a lesser extent beyond that Penn State and Wisconsin.

You add UVA and UNC or you add UW and Oregon, or you add NC State and Va Tech, or you add Miami and FSU, hell you add Cal-Stanford - it doesn't matter. The difference among whatever they add is all washed out by the value to show OSU and Michigan. The actual difference in value in all the potential adds is fairly small. Then you divide whatever small difference that is between the teams and we're talking about noise.

The difference in the additions that are possible are like sweating it out over a little bit better dinner roll to add to the Ohio State-Michigan 40 oz. Porterhouse.
Click to expand...
OSU and Michigan are on the same tier. Whichever one is having the more interesting season pulls slightly ahead but there is a gap between them an penn state. Schools like Wisconsin and Sparty have been ranked in the top 15 for ratings for awhile but if you take out those two juggernaut teams and replace them with the remaining average those numbers go down quite a bit. It doesn’t help that those other “average” big ten teams have been pretty ******/inconsistent for awhile.

I’m very interested in about 5 years to see the SEC ratings after OUT is added.
 
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