Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cykadelic2]

Again, it’s not up to Fox. It’s up to the universities. If the universities don’t see the value they won’t do it. They already get pushback from AD’s and fans about the last expansion, adding two more nothing programs would have to come with a massive financial gain that they couldn’t get otherwise

You are kind of contradicting yourself here.

Fox orchestrated PAC destruction with one possible exception, they were forced to pay full shares to both USC and UCLA for political reasons. And they only offered enough money for half shares to Oregon and U-Dub; that wasn't a B10 call. And of course, Fox didn't pay anything extra for the 4 corner schools moving to the B12, didn't pay for Calford going to the ACC and they completely kneecapped Wazzu and Oregon St.

Fox and ESPN currently run the sport for their benefit, not university presidents.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You are kind of contradicting yourself here.

Fox orchestrated PAC destruction with one possible exception, they were forced to pay full shares to both USC and UCLA for political reasons. And they only offered enough money for half shares to Oregon and U-Dub; that wasn't a B10 call. And of course, Fox didn't pay anything extra for the 4 corner schools moving to the B12, didn't pay for Calford going to the ACC and they completely kneecapped Wazzu and Oregon St.

Fox and ESPN currently run the sport for their benefit, not university presidents.

My point is the reasons the PNW schools were added is because they wanted them and they fit pretty well on multipule levels. I don’t think that desire is there for UV and UNC. Fox just wanting them (even if they do) isn’t enough if it doesn’t make sense for the conference. Fox is still just a short term partner, this is the last deal they will have that ownership stake.

 

[cykadelic2]

My point is the reasons the PNW schools were added is because they wanted them and they fit pretty well on multipule levels. I don’t think that desire is there for UV and UNC. Fox just wanting them (even if they do) isn’t enough if it doesn’t make sense for the conference. Fox is still just a short term partner, this is the last deal they will have that ownership stake.

Where did you come up with that regarding Fox? I have seen nothing which suggests that.

Now if that actually does occur and I doubt it does, the B10 would certainly benefit with pooling of their media rights.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Where did you come up with that regarding Fox? I have seen nothing which suggests that.

Now if that actually does occur and I doubt it does, the B10 would certainly benefit with pooling of their media rights.

It was in one of the articles you posted, I don’t remember which one but we talked a bit about it. I also hadn’t heard that before that article but I had never heard a date ever listed either way before then

 

[isucy86]

Again, it’s not up to Fox. It’s up to the universities. If the universities don’t see the value they won’t do it. They already get pushback from AD’s and fans about the last expansion, adding two more nothing programs would have to come with a massive financial gain that they couldn’t get otherwise

Agree that University Presidents run the show vs. FOX/ESPN. Commissioners work at the behest of the Presidents and each Commission has both in-house and external consultants to advise on the media landscape. So Big 10 & SEC are only going to grow if the Commissioner and their consultants can assure Presidents there is more money to be made per school.

The only issue with Oregon/Washington is they were added a year after the Big 10 had come to agreement with FOX, NBC & CBS. When Oregon & Washington were added, reports were Amazon was prepared to televise a weekly game. But Amazon wanted to be included in the rotation with FOX, NBC, CBS for selecting the best games. But obviously CBS & NBC had no incentive to get a lesser game most weeks after paying $350M.

But in 2029/2030 the Big 10/FOX can structure their media deal based on having 18, 20, 24 schools going into the negotiations. Plus, the expansion of powerful streaming companies into the live sport landscape will make FOX, CBS, NBC maximize their bid. Heck, we could even see ESPN/Disney jump back into the fray to televise Big 10 sports. Especially if ESPN drops the Big12 in 2031.

 

[isucy86]

Where did you come up with that regarding Fox? I have seen nothing which suggests that.

Now if that actually does occur and I doubt it does, the B10 would certainly benefit with pooling of their media rights.

Not sure if there is an expiration date on the FOX/Big 10 arrangement. There certainly could be. But it's a joint venture between the two parties with FOX reportedly in the majority position 61/39.

So maybe there is a sundowning of the joint venture at a certain date and equity then split. But it could also be open-ended and FOX would have to be bought out.

 

[HouClone]

My guess is that ESPN and Fox are telling them that there are only 4-5 schools (1 to the Big 10 and 3 to the SEC) that will add value for all members, so they probably don't actually want to go beyond that.

Those schools are likely: Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State, North Carolina, and either UVA or Clemson,

Where's Utah?

 

[CascadeClone]

Disagree on that. That is a highly onerous penalty on several counts (media payout cuts, exit fees, finding teams to play for all sports, etc.) over 5 years.

A B12/ACC merger with realignment into 3 conferences would be a more favorable solution both financially and competitively.

It wouldn't be difficult to get a bridge loan to cover the 5 years. And how do you NOT do it? You're guaranteed to live in the P2 -- there's basically no money not worth spending to guarantee your survival. It would be dereliction of duty to blow off that opportunity. Hell, SMU did it just to make the ACC. Anyone in the ACC or B12 would do the same to get to the P2 and guarantee their future.

It's like, would you take a $100k loan and a kick to the nuts to guarantee you don't die of cancer? Yes, you would.

 

[cykadelic2]

Not sure if there is an expiration date on the FOX/Big 10 arrangement. There certainly could be. But it's a joint venture between the two parties with FOX reportedly in the majority position 61/39.

So maybe there is a sundowning of the joint venture at a certain date and equity then split. But it could also be open-ended and FOX would have to be bought out.

It's my understanding Fox would have to be bought out. And the buyout where Fox is removed as the rights holder would be highly complicated with BTN and either shuttering it or transitioning it to new ownership. Last I read, the arrangement is in perpetuity until there would be a buyout.

 

[cykadelic2]

It wouldn't be difficult to get a bridge loan to cover the 5 years. And how do you NOT do it? You're guaranteed to live in the P2 -- there's basically no money not worth spending to guarantee your survival. It would be dereliction of duty to blow off that opportunity. Hell, SMU did it just to make the ACC. Anyone in the ACC or B12 would do the same to get to the P2 and guarantee their future.

It's like, would you take a $100k loan and a kick to the nuts to guarantee you don't die of cancer? Yes, you would.

SMU is in a conference with P4 teams to play. Big difference between their situation and what an ACC member would have to go through.

 

[cykadelic2]

Agree that University Presidents run the show vs. FOX/ESPN. Commissioners work at the behest of the Presidents and each Commission has both in-house and external consultants to advise on the media landscape. So Big 10 & SEC are only going to grow if the Commissioner and their consultants can assure Presidents there is more money to be made per school.

The only issue with Oregon/Washington is they were added a year after the Big 10 had come to agreement with FOX, NBC & CBS. When Oregon & Washington were added, reports were Amazon was prepared to televise a weekly game. But Amazon wanted to be included in the rotation with FOX, NBC, CBS for selecting the best games. But obviously CBS & NBC had no incentive to get a lesser game most weeks after paying $350M.

But in 2029/2030 the Big 10/FOX can structure their media deal based on having 18, 20, 24 schools going into the negotiations. Plus, the expansion of powerful streaming companies into the live sport landscape will make FOX, CBS, NBC maximize their bid. Heck, we could even see ESPN/Disney jump back into the fray to televise Big 10 sports. Especially if ESPN drops the Big12 in 2031.

As previously discussed in this thread, CBS and NBC (both under new ownership) are highly unlikely to engage with Fox on anything close to the existing terms when the current B10 deal runs out. Both got effed over by Fox in the last deal with CBS attempting to further sublicense the games they did get (which was nixed by Fox).

 

[Gonzo]

As previously discussed in this thread, CBS and NBC (both under new ownership) are highly unlikely to engage with Fox on anything close to the existing terms when the current B10 deal runs out. Both got effed over by Fox in the last deal with CBS attempting to further sublicense the games they did get (which was nixed by Fox).

You think NBC and CBS are just going to check out of college football broadcasting?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

SMU is in a conference with P4 teams to play. Big difference between their situation and what an ACC member would have to go through.

Agree, the independent scheduling would be the hardest part.

SMU got 200mil in donations to cover the move as well because before moving from G5 to P4 is what their dream was. I don’t know if you get that kind of support to move from a P4 to a P2. Also kinda helped that SMU wasn’t turning down money because their previous contract kinda sucked. This would be losing 200mil already budgeted that the donors would have to cover.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

It's my understanding Fox would have to be bought out. And the buyout where Fox is removed as the rights holder would be highly complicated with BTN and either shuttering it or transitioning it to new ownership. Last I read, the arrangement is in perpetuity until there would be a buyout.

So it seems like the deal goes through 2032 but I can’t find anything rock solid on that except a google AI view and the wiki page. I don’t think Fox needs to be bought out though as the original terms were only a 20 year agreement with Fox back in 2006 that got expanded 6 more years as Fox bought more of the network.

Could be wrong. It’s hard to get solid info on that

 

[1UNI2ISU]

As previously discussed in this thread, CBS and NBC (both under new ownership) are highly unlikely to engage with Fox on anything close to the existing terms when the current B10 deal runs out. Both got effed over by Fox in the last deal with CBS attempting to further sublicense the games they did get (which was nixed by Fox).

Those deals are both under market now.

NBC was trying to sell something that FOX contractually had the right of first refusal to nix. Not FOXs problem they didn't read the contract.

 

[cykadelic2]

You think NBC and CBS are just going to check out of college football broadcasting?

Not sure why you suggest that (actually I know why but won't get into that now).

Been pointed out multiple times here that the B12 has a great opportunity to engage with one and/or the other when their contract expires. Even better if they can pool with the ACC in doing so.

NBC and/or CBS both could reengage with Fox again but as mentioned before, the $$$ are going to be less and/or the game selection process for them is going to have to drastically change.

 

[cykadelic2]

Those deals are both under market now.

NBC was trying to sell something that FOX contractually had the right of first refusal to nix. Not FOXs problem they didn't read the contract.

The sublicense deals are not "under market" when NBC is trying to unload a B10 CCG and CBS isn't happy with their deal as well. As Sports Media Watch correctly points out:

"The report Thursday is just the latest indication that the Big Ten media rights deal has not gone quite as planned. With games spread across three different networks, the conference lacks the cohesive promotional platform the SEC enjoys on ESPN/ABC. And it is widely believed that the Big Ten lacks the depth to sustain a ‘game of the week’ for three different partners."

And that "lack of depth" is primarily a function of the B10 being oversized, top heavy and resulting diluted schedules.

 

[isucy86]

As previously discussed in this thread, CBS and NBC (both under new ownership) are highly unlikely to engage with Fox on anything close to the existing terms when the current B10 deal runs out. Both got effed over by Fox in the last deal with CBS attempting to further sublicense the games they did get (which was nixed by Fox).

You keep saying NBC/CBS got screwed because they paid too much. Then you say that pooling will result in 2-3x more money. You can't have it both ways. If the Big 10 Saturday 2:30 and 7:00 games aren't worth $350M annually, there are ZERO other game windows to get 2-3x more money out of the Networks/Streamers.

Plus you are head over in heels about the concept of pooling because it mirrors what the NFL does. Pooling doesn't write checks. The NFL has printed money because of limited inventory (14-16 wkly games) and they continue to add partners and add game windows. 20 years ago it was CBS/FOX & ABC. Now it's CBS/FOX/ESPN/NBC/Amazon/NFLNet/Netflix & YouTube. Plus the NFL continues to encroach on CFB game windows: Thu Night, T-giving night, more Sat Dec games, more international games.

The Big 10 was smart in their recent media deal by engaging NBC & CBS OTA in addition to FOX OTA. A very NFL like media rights approach.

 

[cykadelic2]

You keep saying NBC/CBS got screwed because they paid too much. Then you say that pooling will result in 2-3x more money. You can't have it both ways. If the Big 10 Saturday 2:30 and 7:00 games aren't worth $350M annually, there are ZERO other game windows to get 2-3x more money out of the Networks/Streamers.

Plus you are head over in heels about the concept of pooling because it mirrors what the NFL does. Pooling doesn't write checks. The NFL has printed money because of limited inventory (14-16 wkly games) and they continue to add partners and add game windows. 20 years ago it was CBS/FOX & ABC. Now it's CBS/FOX/ESPN/NBC/Amazon/NFLNet/Netflix & YouTube. Plus the NFL continues to encroach on CFB game windows: Thu Night, T-giving night, more Sat Dec games, more international games.

The Big 10 was smart in their recent media deal by engaging NBC & CBS OTA in addition to FOX OTA. A very NFL like media rights approach.

You’re again ignoring the fact that Fox is the 100% rights holder via their BTN majority stake. That alone reduces the ceiling of what the B10 should be getting. And as clearly pointed out by multiple media outlets, NBC and CBS got effed by Fox with their sublicense deals. Yeah, great business by Fox but the B10 could have done better

And if you still don’t understand the benefits of pooling by now for CFB and having multiple bidders drive up the price for bundled premium and non-premium inventory while having accces to CFP rights, you never will. It’s exactly why Fox and and ESPN are puppeteering the B10 and SEC against pooling in the PCSA and those aren’t my words, they are Sen Cantwell’s and she is correct. And the fact that ESPN was sole bidder for the latest CFP rights extension due to lack of strategic pooling is all you need to know that the current system is effed up and leaving billions on the table for all of FBS.

 

[isucy86]

Agree, the independent scheduling would be the hardest part.

SMU got 200mil in donations to cover the move as well because before moving from G5 to P4 is what their dream was. I don’t know if you get that kind of support to move from a P4 to a P2. Also kinda helped that SMU wasn’t turning down money because their previous contract kinda sucked. This would be losing 200mil already budgeted that the donors would have to cover.

Yea SMU was making somewhere around $10M annually in the American Conference. A little different than ACC schools making $45M+ annually.

But, the ACC GOR buyout is currently $150M and goes down $15M each year. So if ACC schools can time their exit from the to match when the next Big 10 media deal starts, their exit fee is around $90M. I suspect ACC schools wanting a Big10/SEC invite could easily find $90M, especially since they would have a few years to raise it. Heck, I think Iowa State could raise that money by 2030.