So, to be clear, you're 'speculating' their arguments will completely alter their illegal position. Right? I'd love to hear what you 'think' those arguments could be.
Report: OU & Texas reach out to join SEC
- Thread starter BigJCy
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Your self-confidence in your opinion is admirable. But these things are most often decided first by contract language.
I doubt the league or ESPN would want to fight this out in a costly court battle but would rather negotiate or handle a settlement through arbitration, which may be called for in their Agreement.
One outcome could very well be an extended TV contract. That would be a win-win for both parties, it seems to me and the reason Bowlsby cooled down and said he'd said enough.
No, but I am extremely logical. Ball's now in your court ... again. Please try to answer the question.
I agree that a court battle will be avoided in some fashion but would hate to see an extended deal with ESPN at any price. Best case scenario for the B12, B10 and P12 is to get a new entrant like Amazon involved with the B12 and/or P12 and have them bid against ESPN and Fox for rights to an expanded CFP. That scenario is ESPN's worst nightmare and I hope like hell it unfolds.
I don’t speculate about legal arguments for free but people who are (very well) paid by ESPN to do so would certainly be able to do so.
Do not under estimate rich Texans and their egos. Knew a Texan that spent over $1 million of his own money in legal fees to win a court case for the HOA to take over ownership of the golf course from the developer.
I don’t think it’s valuable to discuss legal strategy about a nine-figure contract dispute on a message board with someone who has not read the contract and wouldn’t be qualified to interpret it anyway.
No one knows how this will shake out - which makes it funnier (to me) that the original post that spurred this conversation was from someone else categorically saying the Big 12 will not admit any AAC universities. It’s foolish to say that with any certainty, just like it’s foolish to read an article about a contract and declare that the outcome you really want to happen is guaranteed to happen.
So, your 'opinion' was unwarranted and ill-advised?
For so many reasons. If there is truly a break away league coming, the last thing you want to do it create more competition to be a part of it.
Also we do not know if Fox intends to collude with ESPN on this thing. Would definitely affect various outcomes.
I can’t decide if that sounds more pompous and arrogant or just plain illogical.
So what specific arguments are you referring to?
You are asserting that you have this information, please let us know
Too many people on this board think that any post that isn’t about ISU’s ideal outcome is either being Debbie Downer or is stupid. UT and OU being a***oles sucks for all of us but those people are dealing with it with their own false reality. Sad to watch honestly.
This is spot on. The biggest mistake people, specifically reporters, are making currently is stating their industry sources claim so and so "doesn't have value". That is a complete over simplification. Does Texas and OU have value? Sure, they are in a football crazy part of the world, that is growing in population, and they have a history of success. The difference between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State isn't population or cable audiences or that Oklahoma State isn't valuable or whatever, it is that Oklahoma is easier to market. Far less work for ESPN, because the brand is national.
The next round, and there will be another round in the next two years prior to a potential seismic shift within the next decade the way things are progressing, isn't about cable households, that was the last round where it was about forcing people who didn't watch your games to pay for your channel. That's done, these channels are national, this next round will be about who is marketable. Who will increase interest in what I already have.
In the Big 12, none left rival Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, as the big dogs, but neither does any other team in any other conference. That doesn't mean they're worthless.
I pulled all the numbers from last year's tv audiences to get a view of how they could be marketed. I don't have a place to post it all at the moment, so I'll try and keep this simple; of those five, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and West Virginia stood out as the highest potential.
West Virginia (#5 in B12): Closer numbers to the Hawkeye's audience, but draws big numbers in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and the DMV, far bigger than Pitt, UVA, and Maryland and behind only Penn State/Ohio State in the area. They did that without really playing anyone geographically around them, which reduces interest. Rivalry games are rarely in two different regions.
Oklahoma State (#3 in B12): Surprisingly their numbers put them at about 75% of Oklahoma's draw, which is pretty respectable. Fun fact, the average audience difference between Texas/Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is the same difference between Oklahoma State and Iowa/Nebraska.
Iowa State (#4 in B12): Slightly behind Oklahoma State's numbers, they averaged 500-600k more viewers, per game, than both Iowa and Nebraska, had the largest non-playoff post season audience for both the Big 12 and Big Ten, and they did that by not really playing anyone geographically around them. Like Oklahoma State, their numbers were actually closer to USC/Oregon than Iowa/Nebraska.
(Rounding it out for the curious: Kansas State [6], Texas Tech [7], TCU [8], Baylor [9], and Kansas [10])
As an example, the Big Ten (All other things aside, e.g. AAU, politics, "sources", etc) could add ISU and WVU and market a bunch more games to people already within the footprint they own. WVU would spark Maryland and Penn State and Iowa State could spark Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota. When the average CFB national audience is 2m people, you don't really need a big market to be successful. You just need people, regionally, to care enough to turn on the game.
I could likely write for days on viewership and/or how these media contracts work or how they could really make some money in the next deals, but this is already long enough to induce comas. The TLDR at this point: going forward value is based on marketability, not location. Look for those opportunities.
You’ve given some good input this whole time. Curious what you think the most realistic fate we have is.
