Schedule Analysis

[Stormin]

OK, can see you intend to drag down this thread as well. How's Illinois:

Tier 1: Ohio State, Michigan State
Tier 2: Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern, Minnesota
Tier 3: Purdue
OOC1: Washington
OOC3: Youngstown, WKentucky, Texas State

Point is that you can do this for most teams that are at the bottom half of their BCS conference. It is really a matter of degree. Does it matter if it is South Carolina or Oklahoma? Gonna lose to either of them. UCLA or Kansas State? Gonna be tough to beat either. Most times, the lower level team loses. Toledo or Texas State? No excuse to lose to either.

Northwestern is a Tier 2 team? They finished with a 1-7 Conference record last year. Tier 3 with Purdue.

Just pointing out that with division schedules you get those years where the schedule can be incredibly weak.....like Iowa's is this year. Yes our reality is that we will have to deal with those tougher schedules and compete. IMO, we will. But understand also that if Iowa wins 10 games this year it is more about the incredibly weak schedule than it is about having a powerhouse football team. Like I said, TCU and West Virginia were BCS teams in their conferences before joining the Big 12......Tier 1 teams without a doubt. And where do you rank them now after playing in the Big 12?

 

[cycloneworld]

Since Rutgers has never played in the Big Ten before HOW can you automatically categorize them as a Lower tier team in the Big Ten since they have not been in the conference previously?

Jeebus, instead of asking the same question 5 times, why don't you just do the analysis of NU, Ill, or Purdue yourself?

Someone already did Ill, are you going to argue that their schedule isn't difficult? When you are a bottom level team, your schedule will always be difficult as you'll mostly play teams that are better than you. The Iowa and the 9th conference game doesn't do us any favors.

 

[BlackHawk]

I'd say Michigan is tier 1. They had a couple down years, but they won't stay down long.

Boy I don't know. I used to think Brady was going to take Michigan back to the glory days, but it appears that will not happen. They still have stellar recruiting classes, but just aren't the same Michigan. Pretty perplexing. I'd be pretty upset as a Wolverine fan.

 

[JHUNSY]

Northwestern is a Tier 2 team? They finished with a 1-7 Conference record last year. Tier 3 with Purdue.

Just pointing out that with division schedules you get those years where the schedule can be incredibly weak.....like Iowa's is this year. Yes our reality is that we will have to deal with those tougher schedules and compete. IMO, we will. But understand also that if Iowa wins 10 games this year it is more about the incredibly weak schedule than it is about having a powerhouse football team. Like I said, TCU and West Virginia were BCS teams in their conferences before joining the Big 12......Tier 1 teams without a doubt. And where do you rank them now after playing in the Big 12?

A guy from work (Hawkeye fan) actually thinks the Big 10 may get left out with the 4 team playoff because of their lower tier. He thinks the Pac-12 champion will get in with 1 loss or less, Big 12 champion with 2 losses or less, SEC champion 1 loss or less, and the ACC champion 1 loss or less. He suggested he doesn't see any Big 10 team going 1 loss or less this year. I pointed out Iowa's cakewalk schedule given to them but he is keeping his expectations lower but also while recognizing that the Big 10 is trying to set them up with a 10 win schedule.

 

[isu81]

not sure how op selected his tiers? is that a historical basis, expectations for the coming year or what?

Not overly scientific (or probably consistent. Tradition made me maybe over-rank Texas, but I didn't do the same with Michigan or Nebraska. Becsuse I knew the reaction, didn't want to appear to over-rate other conference teams). Certainly some teams I threw out a bad year (Northwestern) or a great year (Missouri) and thought about them with regard to how they play most years.

Just thought about how it would play out most years. Obviously, subject to scrutiny, but I think the original point is right. Our situation schedule-wise is not unique and until we get better will always be an excuse if we let it.

 

[DesertClone1]

What place did Rutgers finish in the Big Ten LAST YEAR?

They weren't in the Big 10 last year there skipper.

 

[VeloClone]

They weren't in the Big 10 last year there skipper.

Yes. That was his point: why select a team to represent the Big 10 that didn't even play in the Big 10 last year?

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Hate to say it, but one of the reasons ISU plays a tough schedule is because they don't get to play ISU...

 

[surly]

deleted. bad source data.