Thamel: The lean towards a 12-team playoff

[ISUCyclones2015]

So 3 SEC teams, 2 B1G, Clemson and OU, Then Notre Dame and the PAC12 champs in alternate years. Got it.

Someone did the math on Reddit for the 12 team playoff and it was like 2.7 teams a year for B1G and 2.1 for the SEC and Ohio State would’ve been the only team to make it every year. Though I have a feeling they’d bump up bama to #12 that year (2019) to get them in.

 

[RustShack]

I'm for an 8 team playoff. I would say all power 5 champions and the top 3 g5 champions. If you want a shot then win your conference.

Lol 3 G5?

 

[JM4CY]

I'm for an 8 team playoff. I would say all power 5 champions and the top 3 g5 champions. If you want a shot then win your conference.

There’s no way a Tulsa or Toledo gets in over Georgia after they just played Bama in the SEC CCG.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

Last year you would have had ISU, Indiana, CIncinatti and Coastal Carolina in. Yes, the good programs will be there but that's always going to be true.

Now, it will further destroy the bowl system but at this point it's wrecked beyond repair anyway. It isn't really good for programs as a whole at this point as much as it's good for people who manage the bowls.

It feels like peace work for the players IMO. Like they owe the system a big money bowl game.

 

[cyclone1209]

This would be awesome this year

 

[MJ271]

Ohio St winning doesn't mean the other 3 teams should have gotten in over TCU or even that they Buckeyes should have. The Ole Miss team that beat Bama lost to TCU 42-3 in the bowl game. Not to mention that Bama played 0 top 10 teams, while TCU went 2-1 against them....All 4 teams that got in ahead of them were bigger name teams. If OU or Texas had the exact same resume that TCU had, they would've been in. The committee set the precedent that first year that the name on the front of the jersey ($$$$/eyeballs) was all that mattered.

The is what the committee has always said, but my response would be "how do they not know that TCU would not have done the same thing, if given the opportunity? That whole first season, the committee said it was overall record, TCU lost a close game to a 10-1 Baylor team, while OSU lost 35 to 21 at home to a Virginia Tech team that ended up with a 7 and 6 record.

Yeah, I agree that TCU maybe should have been in and I agree that the name on the front of the jersey was probably the tiebreaker for the committee. And maybe TCU would have done the same thing. I'm not trying to argue that brand plays no factor. I'm just saying that TCU not making it that year is not good evidence for the claim that Iowa State would have to go undefeated to make it.

Until the size of the playoff is enlarged, and the rules to playing games equalized, then we will always have a system that favors the blue bloods over every other school. The current system has allowed a one loss Alabama and OSU teams that did not play in their conference championship game to make the playoff.
No way in hell that an ISU team with one loss would ever be considered for a playoff unless the teams they were going up against had two or more.

Again, I agree that the playoff should be enlarged and that the current system does favor blue bloods since perceived talent is often more important than results. But I still don't think there's evidence that a one loss, conference champion Iowa State wouldn't get in unless there at least four other power five conference, zero or one loss, conference champions (+Notre Dame). The only years where a one loss conference champion missed out were the TCU/Baylor year, and Ohio State in 2018. Does the committee also have a conspiracy against Ohio State?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff#Selections_by_year

Do I think a two loss Iowa State would ever get in a four team playoff? Well, no two loss team has ever made it, so probably not. (Although like I said earlier, this year Iowa State was in the discussion to be the FIRST, had things fallen the right way.)
Would a one loss, non conference champ Iowa State make it? Probably not in a lot of years, but depending on who we lost to in the championship game, yeah, I think there'd be a shot.
And a one loss, conference champion Iowa State would make it most years and I don't see significant evidence to disprove that. Sure, brand is probably a tiebreaker, but there is no grand conspiracy to hold Iowa State down.

 

[Die4Cy]

I don't care what they do. I mostly want the subjective committee decision process eliminated in favor of something concrete. Conference championships or a computer rating based on quality of play and strength of schedule that does not include media polls. What we have now is the worst of all worlds.

 

[Cyched]

I don't care what they do. I mostly want the subjective committee decision process eliminated in favor of something concrete. Conference championships or a computer rating based on quality of play and strength of schedule that does not include media polls. What we have now is the worst of all worlds.

The computers weren’t perfect, but they weren’t the problem with the BCS

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

And OSU demolished 13th ranked Wisconsin 59-0. All three teams lost one game. So you have to pick one.

Do I think TCU had the best resume? Yes. The way their one loss went down should've been taken into account and they should've had the edge.

But this is basically everybody's example that they use to claim the CFP is going to do all these outlandish things, and that ISU has no chance unless they go undefeated, and even then people think ISU's going to get jumped by a 2 loss SEC team.

People need to take off the tinfoil hats. The same teams get in because they are pretty much always the best teams and have the best resumes. If the worst we have is a 13-1 team getting selected over a 12-1 team when they had very similar SOS, then I'd say the CFP is not doing so bad.

I guess I question any system that has a team ranked 3rd, crushes their opponent and then falls to 5th the next day. TCU lost at Baylor by 3 points, 61 to 58. Baylor finished the season 11-1 with a loss at WV. OSU lost at home to a 7-6 V. Tech team.
Do you really think that if OU or UT had TCU or even Baylor's record that year, that they would not have made the playoff and allow OSU to jump them?
There is no doubt the generally the most talented team is getting in, but we have also seen how schools like Penn State, defeats OSU, gets into the championship game, and then OSU gets into the playoff while Penn St. is setting at home.
We had never heard of the 13 data point, until the committee pulled it out of thin air as a reason for OSU to jump TCU in 2014.
How about we stop giving the committee the leeway and give them a set of rules to choose from. You know, like you have to win your conference championship game before jumping another team in the same conference. Maybe if you enter the last week and win your game by 52 points that you are not penalized for it. Instead of the current old boys club where you not only have to be a name school to make the playoff but that name allows you to jump teams that beat you in the regular season.

I just figured the regular season meant everything, or that is what people that oppose the expansion of the playoffs keep telling us.

 

[davegilbertson]

Fascinating few months ahead of us.

With College Football Playoff change looming, a 12-team model leads the way

While popular sentiment has the College Football Playoff expanding to an eight-team tournament, that isn't the focus of the sport's power brokers.

sports.yahoo.com

I just want ISU in the center of the controversy. Let them be the last team to win it all with a four team playoff that somehow doesn't include bama or tOSU and everyone groans and it goes to 12 teams.

 

[scratch]

Weather it be 8 or 12 teams. You must be an out right conference champion to get in. Not two teams from the same conference getting in. How do you tell kids from a team that went undefeated and conference champion. Well you really didn't play anybody tough so we can't let you in. Let it be decided on the field. Any team can be beaten any given day. I love the Cinderella stories in case you can't tell. Only CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS !!!!!

 

[JM4CY]

Weather it be 8 or 12 teams. You must be an out right conference champion to get in. Not two teams from the same conference getting in. How do you tell kids from a team that went undefeated and conference champion. Well you really didn't play anybody tough so we can't let you in. Let it be decided on the field. Any team can be beaten any given day. I love the Cinderella stories in case you can't tell. Only CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS !!!!!

I get the sentiment but it isn’t going to happen.

 

[AuH2O]

I guess I question any system that has a team ranked 3rd, crushes their opponent and then falls to 5th the next day. TCU lost at Baylor by 3 points, 61 to 58. Baylor finished the season 11-1 with a loss at WV. OSU lost at home to a 7-6 V. Tech team.
Do you really think that if OU or UT had TCU or even Baylor's record that year, that they would not have made the playoff and allow OSU to jump them?
There is no doubt the generally the most talented team is getting in, but we have also seen how schools like Penn State, defeats OSU, gets into the championship game, and then OSU gets into the playoff while Penn St. is setting at home.
We had never heard of the 13 data point, until the committee pulled it out of thin air as a reason for OSU to jump TCU in 2014.
How about we stop giving the committee the leeway and give them a set of rules to choose from. You know, like you have to win your conference championship game before jumping another team in the same conference. Maybe if you enter the last week and win your game by 52 points that you are not penalized for it. Instead of the current old boys club where you not only have to be a name school to make the playoff but that name allows you to jump teams that beat you in the regular season.

I just figured the regular season meant everything, or that is what people that oppose the expansion of the playoffs keep telling us.

I totally agree that if the TCU/Baylor resumes were swapped with OSU, OSU would still get in. I just don't agree when people say ISU's only chance to get in is to be 13-0, as they'll take a 2-loss non-champion Big 10 or SEC team and use that as some example that the committee is off its rocker. That was NOT an obvious selection between those three, and there were legitimate arguments for all three. I think they made the wrong selection, but I can understand it. People can bag on the CFP all they want, but they pretty much have gotten it right every year, and the worst anyone can point to is the selection of a 12-1 team with a loss over an 11-1 team with similar SOS. Bottom line is since 2017, the CFP has loved ISU. ISU has consistently been the highest or second-highest team given its number of losses. Maybe that love stops this year and in a tight decision the committee goes with somebody else. But so far everything the CFP has done suggests that a 12-1 conference champ in the Big 12 is probably getting in.

In general I think most of us agree that they need defined criteria and ditch the eyeball test. The best argument against the eyeball test was maybe 2007, when overwhelming consensus was that Ohio State and Michigan were the two best teams. Florida edged out Michigan to play in the title game, and for the most part all of the talking heads were of one of two thoughts 1. Michigan and Ohio State are the best two teams, so they should play for the NC, even though they just played; or 2. Michigan and Ohio State are the best two teams, but since Michigan just lost to OSU, they had their chance, and we don't really need to see a rematch.

By a razor thin margin, Florida got in, then proved that Ohio State didn't even belong on the same field.

 

[Jiub]

To me more teams = more football = win.
Just don’t want to diminish the other bowl games any more than ESPN has already done. Also I am not sure about playing football outdoors in the winter if those hosting teams were to be located in such a location. Would suck. Why not have them meet at neutral nfl stadium ?

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I totally agree that if the TCU/Baylor resumes were swapped with OSU, OSU would still get in. I just don't agree when people say ISU's only chance to get in is to be 13-0, as they'll take a 2-loss non-champion Big 10 or SEC team and use that as some example that the committee is off its rocker. That was NOT an obvious selection between those three, and there were legitimate arguments for all three. I think they made the wrong selection, but I can understand it. People can bag on the CFP all they want, but they pretty much have gotten it right every year, and the worst anyone can point to is the selection of a 12-1 team with a loss over an 11-1 team with similar SOS. Bottom line is since 2017, the CFP has loved ISU. ISU has consistently been the highest or second-highest team given its number of losses. Maybe that love stops this year and in a tight decision the committee goes with somebody else. But so far everything the CFP has done suggests that a 12-1 conference champ in the Big 12 is probably getting in.

In general I think most of us agree that they need defined criteria and ditch the eyeball test. The best argument against the eyeball test was maybe 2007, when overwhelming consensus was that Ohio State and Michigan were the two best teams. Florida edged out Michigan to play in the title game, and for the most part all of the talking heads were of one of two thoughts 1. Michigan and Ohio State are the best two teams, so they should play for the NC, even though they just played; or 2. Michigan and Ohio State are the best two teams, but since Michigan just lost to OSU, they had their chance, and we don't really need to see a rematch.

By a razor thin margin, Florida got in, then proved that Ohio State didn't even belong on the same field.

Since the committee has never taken a 2 loss team to the playoff, its a poor comparison. Does a 1 loss ISU team with a conference championship get in over a 1 loss Alabama or Ohio State team that did not play in the championship game is the question, if the other 3 schools are also an undefeated Clemson, the SEC champion with zero or one loss and a Pac 10 and Big team champ with 1 or less.
To me, there should be no doubt, but why do I think we would end up like TCU and not get in? The committee is going to favor the blue blood programs unless they have no choice and have an undefeated power five school, otherwise the fix is in.

 

[surly]

Had this been a 12-team format originally, ISU and K-State would have been in it already. The CFP would not have evolved into a championship decided by a handful of schools. Moving in this direction is a good thing.

 

[ISUTex]

This is only about money, the quality of 90% of these games will be crap.

Agree. People will ***** and try to come up with a new system after Bama and Clemson or OSU or some other SEC team beats their second round opponents by 35 pts every year.

 

[BMWallace]

Agree. People will ***** and try to come up with a new system after Bama and Clemson or OSU or some other SEC team beats their second round opponents by 35 pts every year.

One of the issues with the 4 team format is that the games aren't even guaranteed to be competitive. Since the beginning of the playoff, the average margin of victory in the 1v4 game is 18 points, in the 2v3 is 24 pts, and in the Championship is 15 pts. The largest margins of victory in each round is 35 (LSU v OU 2019) points, 39 points (Oregon v FSU 2014) , and 28 points (Clemson v Bama 2018, Bama v OSU 2020) respectively. In fact, the only year where 2 of the playoff games were decided by less than 1 score was 2017 where Georgia when into OT against OU, then Bama.

So that criticism is kind of moot, because stomps happen already and even in the Championship game. Football will always have an "Any given Saturday" where the final score isn't always representative of the quality of the team.

The four team system with the highly subjective selection committee just doesn't give enough opportunity for surprises, or dark horses. It has resulted in the stale playoff that we have come to know, where 5 schools make up 22 of the 28 participants.

 

[AuH2O]

The computers weren’t perfect, but they weren’t the problem with the BCS

Most of the groaning from people that they "don't need some compooder to tell me what teams are the best" came after 2004 when USC, OU, and Auburn all finished undefeated, as if it were just up to people they could figure out how to get all three teams into the NC game.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

Top 6 conference champs means last year Cincy and Coastal would've gotten in and Oregon would not have