The drought in Nebraska
- Thread starter NebrClone
- Start date
Speculators are always involved, that is a constant. We have been riding nothing but a weather bubble for the last 10 months. If it continues dry it will go higher but if some key parts of the corn belt get some timely rains before it's too late it will also come crashing down, not below 5 dollars but it will come down fast. They are looking for every reason to bring it down but there just hasn't been anything yet to do that.
I have never seen such swings in the markets like the last year.
That might actually be the saving grace. A massive hurricane from the gulf could re-infuse the ground water, but usually it takes a Katrina type storm to bring that much water this far North.
[FONT="]This afternoon I participated in a webinar with the latest information on current conditions as well as predictions for the rest of the growing season. Doesn’t look good. The 50-ish-minute webinar is be well worth your time. It will be posted at MRCC - Webinars and Videos, very soon. Right now the PDF presentation is there, but they’ve not turned on the link to the recorded webinar. I suggest you check back tomorrow for the recorded webinar. Here are a few take home points from the webinar today:[/FONT]
· [FONT="]79% of the central region [main corn growing area] is in a drought. This is in comparison to an estimate of 74% a week ago, and only 7% a year ago.[/FONT]
· [FONT="]The predicted heat index for Iowa the next 6 days ranges from 100-110 degrees.[/FONT]
· [FONT="]The extended outlook, through October 31, indicates that the current drought pattern to persist, and possibly intensify. (Keep in mind that long-term predications can be problematic. So, maybe it would be better worded as = right now nothing is popping on anyone’s radar that has the potential to break us out of this pattern in the near future.)[/FONT]
· [FONT="]The agriculture sector is being hit the hardest with this drought, with water supply/quality and relief/response/restrictions tagging behind. [/FONT]
· [FONT="]An interesting point at the end of the call pertained to the current models do not do a good job of evaluating the temperature – water use interaction. For example, higher than normal temperatures strip down the soil moisture faster than normal. And, the very-early-greening this spring has messed up our historical perspective on water use and demand. How to quantify those and apply to drought maps is difficult. Thus, the angst of the maps that some feel do not reflect the real severity seen at the ground level. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Also, ISU Extension has their drought website up with links to useful publications and info sources. - Dealing with Disasters | Iowa State University Extension and Outreach
[/FONT]
· [FONT="]79% of the central region [main corn growing area] is in a drought. This is in comparison to an estimate of 74% a week ago, and only 7% a year ago.[/FONT]
· [FONT="]The predicted heat index for Iowa the next 6 days ranges from 100-110 degrees.[/FONT]
· [FONT="]The extended outlook, through October 31, indicates that the current drought pattern to persist, and possibly intensify. (Keep in mind that long-term predications can be problematic. So, maybe it would be better worded as = right now nothing is popping on anyone’s radar that has the potential to break us out of this pattern in the near future.)[/FONT]
· [FONT="]The agriculture sector is being hit the hardest with this drought, with water supply/quality and relief/response/restrictions tagging behind. [/FONT]
· [FONT="]An interesting point at the end of the call pertained to the current models do not do a good job of evaluating the temperature – water use interaction. For example, higher than normal temperatures strip down the soil moisture faster than normal. And, the very-early-greening this spring has messed up our historical perspective on water use and demand. How to quantify those and apply to drought maps is difficult. Thus, the angst of the maps that some feel do not reflect the real severity seen at the ground level. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Also, ISU Extension has their drought website up with links to useful publications and info sources. - Dealing with Disasters | Iowa State University Extension and Outreach
[/FONT]
I can't believe I just watched that. Please give me 46 seconds of my life back, so I can turn on Planet Earth and see a real migration.
Thank you captain obvious. What would be getting hit harder? The lawn mowing business?
The sectors are
- Water supply/quality
- Tourism/recreation
- Society/pubic health
- Relief/response/restrictions
- Plants/wildlife
- Fire
- Business/industry
- Energy
- Ag
I could apologize for talking in bureaucratic-homeland-security-speak. But instead I'll just pretend that you really didn't mean to be a ***.
I know I was being a total a** on that reply but things are getting serious and my fuse is short when I am watching thousands of dollars burn up. Its like throwing $10,000 of cash into a fireplace everyday. I dont think alot of people realize that when you farm 2500 acres of corn it costs $1.5 million to put it in with little guarantee of return and the bank wants that $1.5 million back every year.
The midwest is grows a large portion of the world food supply. When half the world maked $2 per day and spends over half of it on food. The decrease in world food supply and the sharp increase in prices means millions will starve to death over the next year. It is looking so bad in the midwest the they are importing corn from Brazil into the SE states.
please. if you are any decent grain farmer you should have all costs and even some profit locked in. 75% coverage at 7.50 Dec futures during October gives you over 1000 gross per acre.buy some puts to protect your insurance guarantee
I have good insurance but I don't want to collect. 80% with TA and EU plus hail but if I collect on that I will make $250000 less. That is serious cash. Lots of farmers in the same boat with this drought. I still have some old crop left to sell but if prices get much higher I think it will put us in a bigger hole later
2 things could happen to drop corn prices back to $5 with a simple Presidential statement/decree: close exports or drop the ethanol mandate. With the unholy alliance of Big Oil and Livestock Ag banding together to immediately curtail ethanol production, it would not surprise me at all to see some directive that would diminish demand from the ethanol sector.
If not for the stress genes bred into the corn seed of today and the advent of no-till, we would be in a bigger hurt than we are. This is a "30's" type weather event.
If not for the stress genes bred into the corn seed of today and the advent of no-till, we would be in a bigger hurt than we are. This is a "30's" type weather event.
No plans to reduce ethanol mandate per Vilsack
Renewable fuels headline news | OPIS RFS2, RINs & Biodiesel
If I remember correclty the USDA reduced the forecast for exports on Corn and Soy in the last Crop update. The "minor" reduction did little to drop prices because of the 20bu cut in estimated yeild.
Something much bigger would have to happen in order to reduce grain prices below what they were at the beginning of June. With the forecast what it is and predictions of continued drought conditions and warmer than average temps I highly doubt we see Corn below $7 in the next 6 months.
