I've already made my prediction: IA gets the win 31-17.
There are three keys that could alter my opinion of that:
#1: ISU's DL play. If the line battle looks anything similar to what it looked like last year, ISU won't be in this game come the fourth quarter. ISU has to do a better job on defense of getting penetration into Iowa's backfield. If Coker gets to the LOS untouched like all of Iowa's RB's last season, this game will be a blowout once again. This issue can't simply be offset by blitzing the hell out of Iowa - if ISU does that, look for McNutt and Herman to gain huge chunks of yards at a time rather than Coker gaining 5-7 at a time. ISU's DL has to play well for ISU to have a chance.
#2: Steele Jantz. I see a lot of talk about Coker's fumbles, and while that is undoubtedly a problem for Iowa to monitor, Jantz threw three picks last week against UNI and will be starting in his first ever game against a BCS caliber defense. If Jantz throws three picks on Saturday it puts ISU's defense, already in a bad position, in a bigger hole. Jantz needs to have a good game Saturday and throw 1 or fewer INT's for ISU to really be in the game IMO.
#3: ISU's rushing attack. If ISU can run the ball and take the pressure off of Jantz, this game could be much closer than I think it will be. Above everything else, ISU has to run the ball successfully on Saturday to have a chance. Throwing the ball has two negatives: 1. It exposes a young QB to potentially making game altering mistakes & 2. It will keep ISU's defense on the field longer. Without any doubt, ISU's biggest key to victory on Saturday is a successful rushing attack. I do think that Iowa's defense will be more susceptible to the run this year than the pass, so ISU needs to take advantage of that. Can they? No one knows. Last week ISU's OL was without their two best players, but there is certainly a cause for concern about the other three starters, who didn't look great.
There are three keys that could alter my opinion of that:
#1: ISU's DL play. If the line battle looks anything similar to what it looked like last year, ISU won't be in this game come the fourth quarter. ISU has to do a better job on defense of getting penetration into Iowa's backfield. If Coker gets to the LOS untouched like all of Iowa's RB's last season, this game will be a blowout once again. This issue can't simply be offset by blitzing the hell out of Iowa - if ISU does that, look for McNutt and Herman to gain huge chunks of yards at a time rather than Coker gaining 5-7 at a time. ISU's DL has to play well for ISU to have a chance.
#2: Steele Jantz. I see a lot of talk about Coker's fumbles, and while that is undoubtedly a problem for Iowa to monitor, Jantz threw three picks last week against UNI and will be starting in his first ever game against a BCS caliber defense. If Jantz throws three picks on Saturday it puts ISU's defense, already in a bad position, in a bigger hole. Jantz needs to have a good game Saturday and throw 1 or fewer INT's for ISU to really be in the game IMO.
#3: ISU's rushing attack. If ISU can run the ball and take the pressure off of Jantz, this game could be much closer than I think it will be. Above everything else, ISU has to run the ball successfully on Saturday to have a chance. Throwing the ball has two negatives: 1. It exposes a young QB to potentially making game altering mistakes & 2. It will keep ISU's defense on the field longer. Without any doubt, ISU's biggest key to victory on Saturday is a successful rushing attack. I do think that Iowa's defense will be more susceptible to the run this year than the pass, so ISU needs to take advantage of that. Can they? No one knows. Last week ISU's OL was without their two best players, but there is certainly a cause for concern about the other three starters, who didn't look great.
