1. Yes, it is revenue/gross not net. Expenses tend to be about the same.
2. The key point is collectively bargained stipend. Not agree to an open market of salary. It’s only valid in the former. At that time the allowed stipend was as $0.
3. What percent of walk-ons are getting NIL across all the sports? I’d guess a tiny percentage. So they prob don’t get paid in this scenario either, or at least at a drastically reduced rate. Personally I think there should at least be SOMETHING of a stipend pool for programs to use for walk-ons to earn. Even if it is very little, it's better than what they have typically gotten. I suppose there are some walk-ons that never earn a scholarship that do earn NIL that this would hurt. But I suspect that is a very small number.
4 and 5. Correct, I should’ve accounted for additional employer expenses. Maybe a stipend of 28-30k equates to a total cost to ISU of $37-42k. So maybe a $7-8.5 million annual expense. So maybe more like 6-7% of their budget has to be trimmed, again assuming none of the NIL is diverted AD donations.
Also, look at college athletics departments expenses vs revenues. Notice how the magically tend to track super close to each other, despite the revenues changing a lot? Do you think that's because every year every expense is absolutely critical and they're so fortunate that revenues magically go up just the right amount they needed to avoid catastrophe? Pretty obvious most ADs spend whatever revenue they get.
So I'm not buying going from available revenue of $110M and shaving $8M off the top for stipends, insurance, IPERS etc. is going to bankrupt an athletic department. That is not ideal. But for the majority of programs that don't have massive boosters, it's probably better than the current wild west in the long-run.