What if AD's value regional rivalires this time around...

[cymonw1980]

I believe you're making a lot of assumptions and connecting dots on ISU's behalf that are illogical from a business perspective. It is "on paper" that ISU and WVU do not make sense if you're speaking about finance for the B10 and academics for the ACC. They might bring some value as a defensive play. I don't know. But Fox is not going to help ESPN solve a financial problem.

Agree. Fox is not paying for any of this... The question is does ESPN see value in pulling some strings to make this happen.

I am not saying this is a done deal, I am saying there is a reason it could work that makes some sense in both short and long term.

Short Term:
ESPN does not want the B12 to exist - makes more in new landscape, can pay less for B12 rights in total with 6 or so in power conferences, 4 in "other" conferences.

Long Term:
Streaming market changes the game. Regional rivalries matter and create value (ticket revenue, more interest locally). In a streaming world, b10 wants passionate fan bases (ISU is one) not massive TV markets that do not care about college sports (NY/NJ/DC).

I don't disagree with your comments if it is 2010. But the world is changing and short term ESPN motivations might go our way (or maybe they find homes for 4 other teams and ISU is one of the "others" that gets left behind). This is not saying ISU is 100% going to get into the b10 or another p4 league. It is just saying that there are reasons why it could happen... in 2010 it would not.

 

[NoCreativity]

Lol, another thread scenario with Texas A&M and Missouri just packing up and deciding they don't want SEC money anymore.

 

[Cloneon]

I don't understand why OU and Texas didn't bring along 2 more schools to the SEC. It would have helped spur the dissolution of the Big 12 and given them a couple more natural rivals (maybe Texas Tech and OSU) or allowed the SEC to expand its footprint (KU and ISU). Would the SEC have said no? The money would obviously still be there.

Logically, that would be a more blaring violation of anti-trust laws. If the league implodes on its own, ESPN/SEC may get away with this. But, if they outright stole the teams necessary to keep the league intact, there'd no doubt be long standing legal consequences.

 

[JM4CY]

I don't understand why OU and Texas didn't bring along 2 more schools to the SEC. It would have helped spur the dissolution of the Big 12 and given them a couple more natural rivals (maybe Texas Tech and OSU) or allowed the SEC to expand its footprint (KU and ISU). Would the SEC have said no? The money would obviously still be there.

There is no way the money would of justified adding more mouths to feed.

 

[cymonw1980]

Again, the business dealings resulting in the collapse of a conference are 'anti trust'. That won't go well for ESPN.

ESPN has been doing this for a while... we will see what happens. I think if they continued with the attempt to get all 8 into the american this would have caused issues for espn since the 8 would have stayed together and fought ESPN... it has gotten quiet since initial comments were made public.

I think ESPN is now trying to find P4 placements for about 4 more teams so that they can dissolve the league. I think the issue was, the AAC was not an interesting option for the rest of the B12 to say, "ok, let's end the conference and join the aac". They took a shot (would have been ideal for espn if they had taken the offer) and were shut down. Now they are looking for another alternative to get the conference dissolved. The legal issues go away if the conference does not exist.

 

[Cloneon]

ESPN has been doing this for a while... we will see what happens. I think if they continued with the attempt to get all 8 into the american this would have caused issues for espn since the 8 would have stayed together and fought ESPN... it has gotten quiet since initial comments were made public.

I think ESPN is now trying to find P4 placements for about 4 more teams so that they can dissolve the league. I think the issue was, the AAC was not an interesting option for the rest of the B12 to say, "ok, let's end the conference and join the aac". They took a shot (would have been ideal for espn if they had taken the offer) and were shut down. Now they are looking for another alternative to get the conference dissolved. The legal issues go away if the conference does not exist.

Respectfully disagree. I believe the legal issues are compounded if the B12 is dissolved. Unless it's financially equitable for all parties.

 

[cymonw1980]

How does ESPN do anything with the Big Ten? That’s a FOX property.

big 10 has contracts with both fox and espn. espn has a stake in every conference.... also, when a conference adds members those contracts get reopened for additional payouts. Fox could say "no thanks", but then espn could pay for the additional games. Point being... the two teams are worth whatever espn says they are... espn says they are worth $50M then that is what b10 gets paid... espn says they are worth $10M then that is what they get paid. b10 is not going to add them unless it makes sense financially to the conference. There is a $ value for espn to dissolving the B12. If that value is greater than their cost to re-distribute 4 of the 8 remaining B12 members into p4 conferences... then they may do it.

Not saying this WILL happen. I am just pointing out that there is financial incentives for espn to make this happen.

 

[JM4CY]

so... the math would say otherwise. The B12 was in line for their new contract raise with every other conference. Was it going to be the same as b10, sec? Probably not. But media rights for all live sports continue to be very high value. The conference has continued to increase in value in each round of renewals - and little known fact: Has seen their media rights increase in value more than any other league in the past 15 yrs. No, the B12 is not making the most. But the B12 has consistently finished number 3 in the power 5 and has CUT into the gap over the last 15 yrs. (SIDE NOTE: compare ISU / Mizz revenues since conf change; ISU has cut the gap every year and is now


big 10 has contracts with both fox and espn. espn has a stake in every conference.... also, when a conference adds members those contracts get reopened for additional payouts. Fox could say "no thanks", but then espn could pay for the additional games. Point being... the two teams are worth whatever espn says they are... espn says they are worth $50M then that is what b10 gets paid... espn says they are worth $10M then that is what they get paid. b10 is not going to add them unless it makes sense financially to the conference. There is a $ value for espn to dissolving the B12. If that value is greater than their cost to re-distribute 4 of the 8 remaining B12 members into p4 conferences... then they may do it.

Not saying this WILL happen. I am just pointing out that there is financial incentives for espn to make this happen.

So what? That doesn’t make any more sense that the Tx or OU would take us with them.

 

[cymonw1980]

Respectfully disagree. I believe the legal issues are compounded if the B12 is dissolved. Unless it's financially equitable for all parties.

So, I am not a lawyer... and all of this will likely be litigated so, i have no idea the outcome, just that if there's a way to make it happen, disney co. has a lot of $ to spend on lawyers to do it...

However, if the B12 is dissolved I would think it will be a lot harder for the 2-4 schools remaining to sue on their own. The bylaws state that 75% (8 of 10) of the schools can vote to dissolve the league and 60% (6 of 10) can vote to settle litigation... see below:


"If the Big 12 is down to just one or two schools left, then the league could simply dissolve or amend its bylaws. This gets fairly nerdy and legally debatable. ....

A majority of the conference can vote to settle litigation. Bylaw 1.5.2(a)(6). Dissolution requires 75% (8 votes). See 1.5.2(b). That means six Big 12 schools (a majority) could leave the conference, sue, say “We owe nothing and the league is dissolved.” Then those six members could say, “We agree with the lawsuit filed by those six, and therefore, we concede the lawsuit.” So really I think you’re looking at six votes being sufficient to stop the Grant of Rights payments, not eight."

Why I think the Big 12 is going to collapse, and how Baylor should react

We could be headed for major changes

www.ourdailybears.com

 

[Cloneon]

So, I am not a lawyer... and all of this will likely be litigated so, i have no idea the outcome, just that if there's a way to make it happen, disney co. has a lot of $ to spend on lawyers to do it...

However, if the B12 is dissolved I would think it will be a lot harder for the 2-4 schools remaining to sue on their own. The bylaws state that 75% (8 of 10) of the schools can vote to dissolve the league and 60% (6 of 10) can vote to settle litigation... see below:


"If the Big 12 is down to just one or two schools left, then the league could simply dissolve or amend its bylaws. This gets fairly nerdy and legally debatable. ....

A majority of the conference can vote to settle litigation. Bylaw 1.5.2(a)(6). Dissolution requires 75% (8 votes). See 1.5.2(b). That means six Big 12 schools (a majority) could leave the conference, sue, say “We owe nothing and the league is dissolved.” Then those six members could say, “We agree with the lawsuit filed by those six, and therefore, we concede the lawsuit.” So really I think you’re looking at six votes being sufficient to stop the Grant of Rights payments, not eight."

Why I think the Big 12 is going to collapse, and how Baylor should react

We could be headed for major changes

www.ourdailybears.com

One thing to note, which affects Disney more than most is 'image'. Throw 'unethical' behavior into the limelight and it's a bad showing for the 'Disney' image. If they fear ESPN was in the wrong, look for a bigger financial settlement so it doesn't hit the public full force.

 

[AuH2O]

So what? That doesn’t make any more sense that the Tx or OU would take us with them.

It makes sense for UT, OU and ESPN to get the move done early without writing huge checks. Dissolution of the league is probably the only way that happens. However it does not make sense to the rest of the SEC schools unless they think getting OU and UT into the league after this season is such a financial boost they need to take drastic action. I don’t see that as being the case, so I think the odds of SEC accepting any other Big 12 teams as being almost zero.

 

[JM4CY]

It makes sense for UT, OU and ESPN to get the move done early without writing huge checks. Dissolution of the league is probably the only way that happens. However it does not make sense to the rest of the SEC schools unless they think getting OU and UT into the league after this season is such a financial boost they need to take drastic action. I don’t see that as being the case, so I think the odds of SEC accepting any other Big 12 teams as being almost zero.

Totally agree. So I don’t understand why this guy is telling us that they should add more teams to the sex.

 

[surly]

It makes sense for UT, OU and ESPN to get the move done early without writing huge checks. Dissolution of the league is probably the only way that happens. However it does not make sense to the rest of the SEC schools unless they think getting OU and UT into the league after this season is such a financial boost they need to take drastic action. I don’t see that as being the case, so I think the odds of SEC accepting any other Big 12 teams as being almost zero.

Agree. And further to your point, I don't see why ESPN management would give a twit about OU and Texas B12 exit fees. Both are filthy rich and can pay their way out if they choose.

 

[cymonw1980]

There is no way the money would of justified adding more mouths to feed.

woops... somehow my reply to this got cut off and mixed with another. Let me try again.

so... the math would say otherwise. The B12 was in line for their new contract raise with every other conference. Was it going to be the same as b10, sec? Probably not. But media rights for all live sports continue to be very high value. The B12 conference has continued to increase in value in each round of renewals - and little known fact: The B12 has seen their media rights increase in value (%) more than the top 2 (SEC, B10) over the last 15 yrs. No, the B12 is not making the most. But the B12 has consistently finished number 3 in the power 5 and has CUT into the % gap over the last 15 yrs.

Current payouts to the B12 are $400M (again this is understating the value of B12 see below)... Bowlsby said OU/Tx are worth 50%... $200M. Plus you have LHN, Sooner network that add 15M (those move to SEC net and are not part of conf payouts). That is $215M in understated value for ou/tx. The remaining 8 are worth the rest of the $200M (understated value) or about $25M / school. So, total (understated value) is:

200 + 15 + 25 + 25 = 265M

vs.

60M x 4 teams = 240M

Now you need to add a similar "%" growth to the B12 Current payouts so that we can compare to the SEC Future payouts.

The growth in the SEC deal is around 33% (~45M/team to 60M/team)... let's use a growth of 25% on the B12 values (again this is low and does not account for the fact that they now own tx vs. tx a&M, and no longer share OU/tx with fox, etc so understating value here)...

265 x 1.25 (to account for new contract increase) = $331M

So...

Why would ESPN pay $240M to the SEC for the 4 schools? Well, If that is what it takes to dissolve the B12 and get $331M (likely much more) in value starting in 2022 instead of waiting for 2025... that is why.

Yes, it would be better to pay 50% of the money (120M) for 2 schools and get about 75% to 80% of the value.. but if they need to pay a bit more to make this happen now... it makes sense.


Details on Media / Rights Revenue by Conf to illustrate competitiveness of B12 over the last 15 yrs.

Avg per School Rights M$ by Conf (last 15 yrs):

NOTE: This includes $ not in the espn/fox/cbs contracts, like radio cyclones.tv, etc.

B12 Rights as % of other Conf (last 15 yrs):


All data can be found here:

NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY

Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.

sports.usatoday.com

If you look at the details, you can see that SEC / B10 sign deals, see a jump in revenue, then the B12 signs their deal and catches up a few years later (usually doesn't pass them, but at least cuts the gap significantly). Unless this was the contract that broke the 15 yr trend.. B12 was going to increase from the current $400M payouts and would have continued to close the gap / stay competitive with the other conferences).

(SIDE NOTE: compare ISU / Mizz revenues since conf change; ISU has cut the gap every year avg gap since mizz went to sec: 20%, 2019: down to 12% budget gap; Avg gap was 48% when they were both in the B12; reason? many but mainly driven by a shrinking gap in media rights value between miz and ISU; also helps that we are selling more FB tickets in recent years).

So, the $400M the B12 paid out is going to continue to increase... we are seeing that SEC / B10 are likely to add 10M - 20M+ in this round... B12 is probably on their heals and would see similar increases.

Maybe this is over kill for the point... the points are:

1) Big 12 has in creased media rights payments by 299% since 2005
2) EVERY year has seen media rights increase in value
3) Looking at the SEC/B10, while their deals have been richer, their % growth has been slightly lower than the B12 (296% SEC, 265% B10).
4) the 400M used to estimate the value of the B12 teams is understating the value when comparing to the "future" SEC payouts... more resonable to use the delta from overall avg conf media / rights values of around $6M per school than the 40M (current B12) vs. 60M (future SEC) deals.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Agree. And further to your point, I don't see why ESPN management would give a twit about OU and Texas B12 exit fees. Both are filthy rich and can pay their way out if they choose.

ESPN cares because they want TX/OU to move to the SEC where they own all the rights ASAP. That improves their content improved ratings and makes everyone in the SEC happy.
Causing the instability resulting in the immediate dissolution of the Big12 solves the issue ESPN of paying the rest of the current contract too.
ESPN has a lot of reasons and cash to want the move to happen earlier and I am sure they communicated to TX/OU they could help facilitate the move to help lower or even get rid their exit fees.

 

[cymonw1980]

Totally agree. So I don’t understand why this guy is telling us that they should add more teams to the sex.

To be clear, I think the SEC is done adding schools.

My point is the gap between the 8 and the P4 conference payouts is not as drastic as most of you believe AND there is a reason why media partners would pay that gap:

End B12 early get access to valuable inventory that they get once OU/Tx make their move.

They need to find willing partners... think its possible but not a slam dunk for the b10 to add, dont think sec will, ACC is going to add someone (have to in order to reopen a really bad contract), PAC is in the middle of new tv deals now and has been making much less than the B10, SEC.. so, they could be "encouraged" to take some of these teams.

 

[agrabes]

woops... somehow my reply to this got cut off and mixed with another. Let me try again.

so... the math would say otherwise. The B12 was in line for their new contract raise with every other conference. Was it going to be the same as b10, sec? Probably not. But media rights for all live sports continue to be very high value. The B12 conference has continued to increase in value in each round of renewals - and little known fact: The B12 has seen their media rights increase in value (%) more than the top 2 (SEC, B10) over the last 15 yrs. No, the B12 is not making the most. But the B12 has consistently finished number 3 in the power 5 and has CUT into the % gap over the last 15 yrs.

Current payouts to the B12 are $400M (again this is understating the value of B12 see below)... Bowlsby said OU/Tx are worth 50%... $200M. Plus you have LHN, Sooner network that add 15M (those move to SEC net and are not part of conf payouts). That is $215M in understated value for ou/tx. The remaining 8 are worth the rest of the $200M (understated value) or about $25M / school. So, total (understated value) is:

200 + 15 + 25 + 25 = 265M

vs.

60M x 4 teams = 240M

Now you need to add a similar "%" growth to the B12 Current payouts so that we can compare to the SEC Future payouts.

The growth in the SEC deal is around 33% (~45M/team to 60M/team)... let's use a growth of 25% on the B12 values (again this is low and does not account for the fact that they now own tx vs. tx a&M, and no longer share OU/tx with fox, etc so understating value here)...

265 x 1.25 (to account for new contract increase) = $331M

So...

Why would ESPN pay $240M to the SEC for the 4 schools? Well, If that is what it takes to dissolve the B12 and get $331M (likely much more) in value starting in 2022 instead of waiting for 2025... that is why.

Yes, it would be better to pay 50% of the money (120M) for 2 schools and get about 75% to 80% of the value.. but if they need to pay a bit more to make this happen now... it makes sense.


Details on Media / Rights Revenue by Conf to illustrate competitiveness of B12 over the last 15 yrs.

Rights M$ by Conf (last 15 yrs):
View attachment 87983

B12 Rights as % of other Conf (last 15 yrs):
View attachment 87982

If you look at the details, you can see that SEC / B10 sign deals, see a jump in revenue, then the B12 signs their deal and catches up a few years later (usually doesn't pass them, but at least cuts the gap significantly). Unless this was the contract that broke the 15 yr trend.. B12 was going to increase from the current $400M payouts and would have continued to close the gap / stay competitive with the other conferences).

(SIDE NOTE: compare ISU / Mizz revenues since conf change; ISU has cut the gap every year avg gap since mizz went to sec: 20%, 2019: down to 12% budget gap; Avg gap was 48% when they were both in the B12; reason? many but mainly driven by a shrinking gap in media rights value between miz and ISU; also helps that we are selling more FB tickets in recent years).

So, the $400M the B12 paid out is going to continue to increase... we are seeing that SEC / B10 are likely to add 10M - 20M+ in this round... B12 is probably on their heals and would see similar increases.

Maybe this is over kill for the point... the points are:

1) Big 12 has in creased media rights payments by 399% since 2005
2) EVERY year has seen media rights increase in value
3) Looking at the SEC/B10, while their deals have been richer, their % growth has been slightly lower than the B12 (396% SEC, 365% B10).
4) the 400M used to estimate the value of the B12 teams is understating the value when comparing to the "future" SEC payouts... more resonable to use the delta from overall avg conf media / rights values of around $6M per school than the 40M (current B12) vs. 60M (future SEC) deals.

Your point, in a much simpler format, seems to be that if ESPN decides to pay all SEC schools the same rate of $60M/year that's a total cost of $240M/year. If the B12 media rights increase in value by 25% in the next deal, the "value" of the taking OU & Texas plus two additional B12 schools is $331M, for a total increased value to ESPN of $89M/year.

Of course, there are two basic flaws in this argument. First, we don't know if ESPN makes or loses money on the SEC or B12 deals or if they would with a 25% increased cost for the B12 schools. Second, taking two additional teams would not dissolve the B12 (6 still remain and have a quorum) and would require ESPN to double pay for 4 former B12 school.

 

[Cloneon]

woops... somehow my reply to this got cut off and mixed with another. Let me try again.

so... the math would say otherwise. The B12 was in line for their new contract raise with every other conference. Was it going to be the same as b10, sec? Probably not. But media rights for all live sports continue to be very high value. The B12 conference has continued to increase in value in each round of renewals - and little known fact: The B12 has seen their media rights increase in value (%) more than the top 2 (SEC, B10) over the last 15 yrs. No, the B12 is not making the most. But the B12 has consistently finished number 3 in the power 5 and has CUT into the % gap over the last 15 yrs.

Current payouts to the B12 are $400M (again this is understating the value of B12 see below)... Bowlsby said OU/Tx are worth 50%... $200M. Plus you have LHN, Sooner network that add 15M (those move to SEC net and are not part of conf payouts). That is $215M in understated value for ou/tx. The remaining 8 are worth the rest of the $200M (understated value) or about $25M / school. So, total (understated value) is:

200 + 15 + 25 + 25 = 265M

vs.

60M x 4 teams = 240M

Now you need to add a similar "%" growth to the B12 Current payouts so that we can compare to the SEC Future payouts.

The growth in the SEC deal is around 33% (~45M/team to 60M/team)... let's use a growth of 25% on the B12 values (again this is low and does not account for the fact that they now own tx vs. tx a&M, and no longer share OU/tx with fox, etc so understating value here)...

265 x 1.25 (to account for new contract increase) = $331M

So...

Why would ESPN pay $240M to the SEC for the 4 schools? Well, If that is what it takes to dissolve the B12 and get $331M (likely much more) in value starting in 2022 instead of waiting for 2025... that is why.

Yes, it would be better to pay 50% of the money (120M) for 2 schools and get about 75% to 80% of the value.. but if they need to pay a bit more to make this happen now... it makes sense.


Details on Media / Rights Revenue by Conf to illustrate competitiveness of B12 over the last 15 yrs.

Avg per School Rights M$ by Conf (last 15 yrs):
View attachment 87983
NOTE: This includes $ not in the espn/fox/cbs contracts, like radio cyclones.tv, etc.

B12 Rights as % of other Conf (last 15 yrs):
View attachment 87982

All data can be found here:

NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY

Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.

sports.usatoday.com

If you look at the details, you can see that SEC / B10 sign deals, see a jump in revenue, then the B12 signs their deal and catches up a few years later (usually doesn't pass them, but at least cuts the gap significantly). Unless this was the contract that broke the 15 yr trend.. B12 was going to increase from the current $400M payouts and would have continued to close the gap / stay competitive with the other conferences).

(SIDE NOTE: compare ISU / Mizz revenues since conf change; ISU has cut the gap every year avg gap since mizz went to sec: 20%, 2019: down to 12% budget gap; Avg gap was 48% when they were both in the B12; reason? many but mainly driven by a shrinking gap in media rights value between miz and ISU; also helps that we are selling more FB tickets in recent years).

So, the $400M the B12 paid out is going to continue to increase... we are seeing that SEC / B10 are likely to add 10M - 20M+ in this round... B12 is probably on their heals and would see similar increases.

Maybe this is over kill for the point... the points are:

1) Big 12 has in creased media rights payments by 299% since 2005
2) EVERY year has seen media rights increase in value
3) Looking at the SEC/B10, while their deals have been richer, their % growth has been slightly lower than the B12 (296% SEC, 265% B10).
4) the 400M used to estimate the value of the B12 teams is understating the value when comparing to the "future" SEC payouts... more resonable to use the delta from overall avg conf media / rights values of around $6M per school than the 40M (current B12) vs. 60M (future SEC) deals.

And with all this your premise is based on Bowlsby's statement of 50%. Which could be construed in multiple ways. I believe the values of TX and OK were inflated by the 'parity' in the league (san KS). Though they're higher than the rest, 'without the rest', they're not nearly as good as the media is saying. Compare that to the other conferences with less dramatic increases and you see a higher disparity top to bottom than you did in the B12. My point: 'parity' is essential to the product and value of the conference as a whole.

 

[cymonw1980]

And with all this your premise is based on Bowlsby's statement of 50%. Which could be construed in multiple ways. I believe the values of TX and OK were inflated by the 'parity' in the league (san KS). Though they're higher than the rest, 'without the rest', they're not nearly as good as the media is saying. Compare that to the other conferences with less dramatic increases and you see a higher disparity top to bottom than you did in the B12. My point: 'parity' is essential to the product and value of the conference as a whole.

But, if the 50% valuation is wrong, it makes the rest of the 8 more attractive as stand alone adds.

I do think there is pretty significant money for espn to move ou/tx out of the b12 (at least short term, long term it could destroy value if we go to a power division with 32 teams).

1) They own all of the ou/tx inventory (own only 50% now and I think that fox get's first pick of B12 games each week)

2) They consolidate more brands in the sec... tx / ou playing tex a&m, bama, lsu, etc. would increase the value of their SEC inventory)

Net, I don't know how much it is... but it is not hard to see that it could be a pretty significant financial benefit for espn.

 

[cymonw1980]

Your point, in a much simpler format, seems to be that if ESPN decides to pay all SEC schools the same rate of $60M/year that's a total cost of $240M/year. If the B12 media rights increase in value by 25% in the next deal, the "value" of the taking OU & Texas plus two additional B12 schools is $331M, for a total increased value to ESPN of $89M/year.

Of course, there are two basic flaws in this argument. First, we don't know if ESPN makes or loses money on the SEC or B12 deals or if they would with a 25% increased cost for the B12 schools. Second, taking two additional teams would not dissolve the B12 (6 still remain and have a quorum) and would require ESPN to double pay for 4 former B12 school.

Yes, espn would need to get at least 6 (maybe more, that would be decided by the lawyers) out of the b12 to make this happen not just 4.

So, 2 are out (ou, tx) need 4 more. Most have argued that this WILL NOT happen because the value of each individual school is less than the per school payouts at the other P4 conf. My first point is that this is not 100% accurate. There is a case to be made that the value of the "Big 8" is on par with the current payouts else where (behind b10, sec, similar to pac, acc). Second, it is not true that this will be based on the value of each of these individual schools. It will be based on what the media companies will pay to for their rights within a new conf.

If the value to ESPN for dissolving the B12 in 2022 is greater than the cost to get 4 more schools into other P4 conferences than espn has motivation to move 4 more teams to p4 conferences.

In terms of whether or not espn makes money or what the value of B12 media rights are... honestly, just look at the numbers.

The B12 has increased payouts 299% over the last 15 yrs. This is not happening because espn loves the B12.... this is in line with the increases seen across all P5 conferences (2nd only to the PAC in terms of % increase). TV is dying. The last thing they have is news and sports - much more valuable LIVE than On-Demand.

So, over the last 15 yrs the B12 has grown in line with the other conferences. If the initial increases are around a 35% raise as reported, it is safe to assume the other conferences will get at least a 25% raise. This was meant to be a conservative estimate. The point is even with this "low" estimate the B12 schools are not that far (if at all) behind 80% of the other schools in P4 leagues. In this case the amount of "over payment" ESPN will need to make will be much less than what people are saying. If the gap is closer to $5M - $15M per school than moving 4 schools costs espn $20M - $60M. Plus they likely save money on anyone left behind (probably in the range of $10M x 4 = $40M savings once B12 is dissolved).

So, net is the total increased cost for ESPN to move 4 more schools to a P4 league could be minimal (maybe as low as $20M in "over payment" costs) and the potential increase in revenue could be pretty high...

Question is what is the cost, what is the value? I don't know. But numbers would suggest there is value there for ESPN.