This is how I see each result in order of best outcome:
1. We get into the Big 10: the one scenario where we improve our standing as a program. Would be incredible and give us a more stable environment.
2.The Big 12 somehow gets things altogether and competes the Hail Mary, gets OU and Texas from making the jump. Then obviously our program stays the same as things are now. Looking bleak for this scenario, though.
3. Leaving for the PAC 12: a bit of a small setback for the program, but not terrible either. Still will have an ability to make due with what is given.
4. Staying in a castrated Big 12: Bad scenario, still hope for down the road that we can maintain a respectable program. But major uphill battles to climb for any chance at national relevance. Would have to hope Big 12 finds a way to eventually get expansion.
5. Leaving for a group of five (AAC, MW, MAC): doomsday. Death of sun, program is screwed. Likely lose all progress gained from the last 5 years.