Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[WhoISthis]

Not sure I understand "Due to USC" statement.

USC was in the Pac12 when the current Pac12 agreement was signed. AND when that deal was signed the Pete Carroll glory days were still in the rear view mirror.

Sure there is optimism with bringing in Lincoln Riley, but a TV partner isn't going to pay a Lincoln Riley premium. If Riley has 3-4 good years he could move on for a bigger paycheck- NFL or SEC/Big10.

In fact, if you were correct that USC has exceptional value- why not jump to Big 10 or SEC? IMO a 4 team Pac12 package would be attractive to the SEC or Big10.

Nor is any school with any risk/reward sense going to leave to become a satellite pod for a conference with Oregon St and Washington St, just with the hope USC gets dynastic, doesn’t leave for P2 money, and that USC’s success enough to change the ratings disaster.

Why do that when you could tell USC and Co, if you want our fans and to be more visible in the central time zones, you can be the satellite pod

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I have stated many times the Pac 12 has to either expand into the central time zone and take teams from the Big 12 willing to go, or they are going to lose their most valuable schools to the Big 10. They passed on expanding this past year, but did leave the door open to expansion in the future.

I think every conference except the SEC is waiting to see how the next round of TV deals go, and when OU and UT are leaving the Big 12. Once that is finished, then the Pac 12 will look to expand unless they can get a huge increase in their tier one media rights over what they currently are now getting.

Expanding into the Central Time Zone allows them to broadcast games weekly in the 11:00 time slot without forcing teams in the Pacific Time Zone to start playing games at 9:00 AM on a Saturday.

 

[SeventhSon]

I have stated many times the Pac 12 has to either expand into the central time zone and take teams from the Big 12 willing to go

Who are these teams excited to go to a sub-par PAC12? ISU?

 

[WhoISthis]

I have stated many times the Pac 12 has to either expand into the central time zone and take teams from the Big 12 willing to go, or they are going to lose their most valuable schools to the Big 10. They passed on expanding this past year, but did leave the door open to expansion in the future.

I think every conference except the SEC is waiting to see how the next round of TV deals go, and when OU and UT are leaving the Big 12. Once that is finished, then the Pac 12 will look to expand unless they can get a huge increase in their tier one media rights over what they currently are now getting.

Expanding into the Central Time Zone allows them to broadcast games weekly in the 11:00 time slot without forcing teams in the Pacific Time Zone to start playing games at 9:00 AM on a Saturday.

It’s been said for over a decade. If the Pac12 raids on the central time zone were as effective as on message boards, it would be the Pac30 by now.

If the Big 12 schools added that much value to make a conference with horrible ratings competitive with the BIG and SEC in revenue (otherwise there is no stability), those Big 12 schools don’t need to be orphaned in a Pac12 with Oregon St and WSU. They need to invite what’s of value in the Pac12 to join the Big 12.

I think conferences are waiting because there’s no clear answer that saves the Pac12 and ACC. It’s all about getting to a P2 now. And the top targets are in those two conferences. The ACC is sharing space with BIG and SEC- it is doomed.

 

[isucy86]

I have stated many times the Pac 12 has to either expand into the central time zone and take teams from the Big 12 willing to go, or they are going to lose their most valuable schools to the Big 10. They passed on expanding this past year, but did leave the door open to expansion in the future.

I think every conference except the SEC is waiting to see how the next round of TV deals go, and when OU and UT are leaving the Big 12. Once that is finished, then the Pac 12 will look to expand unless they can get a huge increase in their tier one media rights over what they currently are now getting.

Expanding into the Central Time Zone allows them to broadcast games weekly in the 11:00 time slot without forcing teams in the Pacific Time Zone to start playing games at 9:00 AM on a Saturday.

I wouldn't limit Pac12 departures to the Big10. The SEC has been aggressive in past expansion going all the way back to Arkansas.

The top 4-5 Pac12 media rights value programs could be attractive to either the Big10 or SEC as a package. The fit with other conference teams might be stronger with the SEC vs Big10.

A SEC division with Texas, A&M, OU, ASU, USC, UCLA, Utah and Colorado would make geographic sense and gives Pac12 access to Central TZ. I just selected 5 Pac12 teams that are in major TV markets and not a geographic outlier like Washington or Oregon. But, money talks and if Oregon or Washington have significantly more TV value than UU or CU- then they would be part of the Pac12 package to the SEC.

IMO the Big10 or Big12 could then swoop in and add schools. Any Pac12 leftover could end up in MWC.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Who are these teams excited to go to a sub-par PAC12? ISU?

Depending on the payout of the next media rights deal, there may be every team in the league. Do you really think ISU can afford to continue at our present level getting 15 to 20 million from their league media deal? None of the schools will want to play half their games 2 time zones away, they will be forced too or become irrelevant.
Now if the new contract is around what we are currently getting, that changes everything. But until the schools see the numbers, then it's crazy to say that Big 12 will add the new four teams, and everyone will stand pat.

 

[scyclonekid]

So don’t you think those four newbies asked or really got a good feel from us 8 that we’re staying and not leaving? Why would they join only to see some of us “potentially” leave?

 

[BCClone]

So don’t you think those four newbies asked or really got a good feel from us 8 that we’re staying and not leaving? Why would they join only to see some of us “potentially” leave?

Because big XII will always be considered stronger than AAC.

 

[scyclonekid]

Big 12 even without the traitors is 3rd best conference

 

[scyclonekid]

If I was ACC and PAC 12 I’d be nervous.

 

[scyclonekid]

Big ten is only conference that makes any sense for Iowa state if we were to jump if offered.

 

[CyclonesRock]

If Lincoln Riley is successful, and the PAC continues to struggle to get big $ for TV deals, USC can/should just go independent like ND in football only. As a private school and with a national brand, they would have zero issues scheduling whatever kind of schedule they would want to assemble. They may be able to get a sweet exclusive TV deal similar to ND, but even if they don't, there is not a network out there that wouldn't want to carry their games. Not sure why Texas doesn't just go independent since they are god's gift to everything athletics.

 

[cykadelic2]

Have you seen the conference ratings? The Pac12 may have historical brands but they don’t have much better value. ACC conference title game beat by AAC in ratings.

If any of the remaining Big 12 members had enough value to get the ACC or Pac12 anywhere near close to the Big or SEC, they’ll be invited to the Big or SEC.

Plus, ESPN controls the ACC and SEC. If they benefited from KU or any other Big 12 brands ending up in the ACC, it should have been done soon after OuT announced. Two more losses and there’s likely no exit fee or settlement to make. Imo espn doesn’t want the ACC to survive, or rather knows it can’t.

As correctly pointed out by Kliavkoff earlier this week, P12 ratings have been significantly reduced by West Coast COVID factors and the recent nosedives of USC, Washington and the two Arizona schools. The conference has recently made gawd awful hires and they haven't been made solely due to salary constraints (Edwards, Sumlin, Lake and Helton). Despite all that, they will still get higher payouts for their existing 12 than the B12 will for their projected 12 assuming the P12 gets rid of PACN for their Tier 3 FB inventory. If they keep PACN, they are hosing themselves. BYU will help the B12's bargaining position, the other 3 newbies will dilute it. The addition of Central Time Zone schools will stimulate P12 payouts, not dilute them especially if Amazon, NBC/Peacock, Apple and/or CBS/Paramount get actively involved and I anticipate one or two of those will.

And your assertion that ESPN doesn't want the ACC to survive is complete nonsense. ESPN has got the ACC by the balls through 2036 with lower than market payouts but if they can get ND to join as a full member with football and away from NBC, they will pay the premium to do so and adjust that contract accordingly. And if ESPN loses P12, B12 and B10 inventory (and they will), they will need to backfill that inventory gap and they can do so on the cheap with West Virginia and Cincy (or another R8 school) if they can't get ND.

 

[cykadelic2]

It’s been said for over a decade. If the Pac12 raids on the central time zone were as effective as on message boards, it would be the Pac30 by now.

I think conferences are waiting because there’s no clear answer that saves the Pac12 and ACC. It’s all about getting to a P2 now. And the top targets are in those two conferences. The ACC is sharing space with BIG and SEC- it is doomed.

The Pac 16 would have happened with Texas if ESPN doesn't come through with LHN to keep them in the B12.

The ACC's GOR and TV deal runs through 2036 and is very favorable for EPSN. It isn't doomed as you suggest prior to that and it can't dissolve based solely on Clemson, FSU, UNC, GA Tech and/or Virginia departing prior to GOR expiration.

 

[AuH2O]

As correctly pointed out by Kliavkoff earlier this week, P12 ratings have been significantly reduced by West Coast COVID factors and the recent nosedives of USC, Washington and the two Arizona schools. The conference has recently made gawd awful hires and they haven't been made solely due to salary constraints (Edwards, Sumlin, Lake and Helton). Despite all that, they will still get higher payouts for their existing 12 than the B12 will for their projected 12 assuming the P12 gets rid of PACN for their Tier 3 FB inventory. If they keep PACN, they are hosing themselves. BYU will help the B12's bargaining position, the other 3 newbies will dilute it. The addition of Central Time Zone schools will stimulate P12 payouts, not dilute them especially if Amazon, NBC/Peacock, Apple and/or CBS/Paramount get actively involved and I anticipate one or two of those will.

And your assertion that ESPN doesn't want the ACC to survive is complete nonsense. ESPN has got the ACC by the balls through 2036 with lower than market payouts but if they can get ND to join as a full member with football and away from NBC, they will pay the premium to do so and adjust that contract accordingly. And if ESPN loses P12, B12 and B10 inventory (and they will), they will need to backfill that inventory gap and they can do so on the cheap with West Virginia and Cincy (or another R8 school) if they can't get ND.

Why would COVID factors hurt TV ratings in the PAC, and why would it be different for them? People throw out these dumb excuses for why the PAC TV ratings are garbage, and why their last media deal was garbage.

Maybe the PAC will get good money from one of those non-traditional media partners, but that can be a dangerous game. Like it or not ESPN/ABC and Fox’s promotion or lack thereof is a powerful thing.

 

[Hoggins]

As correctly pointed out by Kliavkoff earlier this week, P12 ratings have been significantly reduced by West Coast COVID factors and the recent nosedives of USC, Washington and the two Arizona schools. The conference has recently made gawd awful hires and they haven't been made solely due to salary constraints (Edwards, Sumlin, Lake and Helton). Despite all that, they will still get higher payouts for their existing 12 than the B12 will for their projected 12 assuming the P12 gets rid of PACN for their Tier 3 FB inventory. If they keep PACN, they are hosing themselves. BYU will help the B12's bargaining position, the other 3 newbies will dilute it. The addition of Central Time Zone schools will stimulate P12 payouts, not dilute them especially if Amazon, NBC/Peacock, Apple and/or CBS/Paramount get actively involved and I anticipate one or two of those will.

And your assertion that ESPN doesn't want the ACC to survive is complete nonsense. ESPN has got the ACC by the balls through 2036 with lower than market payouts but if they can get ND to join as a full member with football and away from NBC, they will pay the premium to do so and adjust that contract accordingly. And if ESPN loses P12, B12 and B10 inventory (and they will), they will need to backfill that inventory gap and they can do so on the cheap with West Virginia and Cincy (or another R8 school) if they can't get ND.

You’re awfully confident in the new PAC 12 tv contract with zero proof.

 

[Cyforce]

So don’t you think those four newbies asked or really got a good feel from us 8 that we’re staying and not leaving? Why would they join only to see some of us “potentially” leave?

It's a ladder, if you aren't climbing you're falling.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Why would COVID factors hurt TV ratings in the PAC, and why would it be different for them? People throw out these dumb excuses for why the PAC TV ratings are garbage, and why their last media deal was garbage.

Maybe the PAC will get good money from one of those non-traditional media partners, but that can be a dangerous game. Like it or not ESPN/ABC and Fox’s promotion or lack thereof is a powerful thing.

The Pac 12 is hampered by being on the West Coast for the majority of the games. The 11:00 window, noon eastern time zone means starting games at 10:00 on the West Coast. Their Pac 12 at night is kicking off at 10:00 PM or later in the east, which means that they have missed the prime-time hours of 7 to 10.
Look at Fox, starting to schedule games beginning at 11:00 AM to get the East Coast audience, thereby making it more valuable for the network.

You also have to factor in that many teams on the West Coast, just do not draw large college sports crowds, there is just so much more to do on the coast with outdoor activities and professional sports, the draw is smaller than it is in the Mid-west where there are fewer pro teams in the college towns. In a lot of the central and southern states, the college teams are the professional teams of that region or area. Therefore they can draw larger crowds.

 

[WhoISthis]

Depending on the payout of the next media rights deal, there may be every team in the league. Do you really think ISU can afford to continue at our present level getting 15 to 20 million from their league media deal? None of the schools will want to play half their games 2 time zones away, they will be forced too or become irrelevant.
Now if the new contract is around what we are currently getting, that changes everything. But until the schools see the numbers, then it's crazy to say that Big 12 will add the new four teams, and everyone will stand pat.

Have you checked out the Pac12 ratings? They may be sitting on some hidden streaming vendors and network partner, but they’re going to need it. Otherwise it makes more sense for the Pac12 to be picked off by the Big 10 and Big 12 than it does for any Big 12 school to willingly become an outcast for marginally more.

Fundamentally they need to become less Pac12. Get in earlier time zones and in front of Midwest fans that care more than their own populations. And lose Oregon St snd Washington St.

That’s not suggestive of expanding. That says they’re about to be poached

 

[Cyforce]

The Pac 12 is hampered by being on the West Coast for the majority of the games. The 11:00 window, noon eastern time zone means starting games at 10:00 on the West Coast. Their Pac 12 at night is kicking off at 10:00 PM or later in the east, which means that they have missed the prime-time hours of 7 to 10.
Look at Fox, starting to schedule games beginning at 11:00 AM to get the East Coast audience, thereby making it more valuable for the network.

You also have to factor in that many teams on the West Coast, just do not draw large college sports crowds, there is just so much more to do on the coast with outdoor activities and professional sports, the draw is smaller than it is in the Mid-west where there are fewer pro teams in the college towns. In a lot of the central and southern states, the college teams are the professional teams of that region or area. Therefore they can draw larger crowds.

Noon out east is 9am in the west.