Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[jakemcilroy]

How? We make way more money than the P12, its not close Get real

They have 2 things we don’t:

1) TV contract is up sooner.

2) Pacific time zone inventory.

This ain’t over.

 

[jakemcilroy]

Ummm. "...no matter HOW it comes...". I believe the ACC said the same thing and locked them into a really bad long-term contract. Other than that I agree. Lock in to a growth relative to other conferences growth / viewing metric.

OK I agree with this. By HOW I meant kill/grow. Not horrible TV deal.

 

[CyCrazy]

They have 2 things we don’t:

1) TV contract is up sooner.

2) Pacific time zone inventory.

This ain’t over.

No one watches, its proven by the money they get. That aint going up now.

 

[Clonedogg]

The hard part is because nobody knows what the future playoff looks like (remember this 4-team one expires in 2025 & there is nothing after that), these conferences and teams are trying to figure out their long-term place in the world without knowing the end-game.

Imagine if I said, recruit your best basketball roster but I’m not going to tell you the rules (3 on 3, 4 on 4, 3-point line, rim height) until 2 years from now.

You make some valid points, but to add the 2 weakest from an already weakened PAC, does not equal winning (surviving...whatever you want to call it). It probably makes the Pac stronger and it definitely makes the Big12 weaker.

 

[Stormin]

They have 2 things we don’t:

1) TV contract is up sooner.

2) Pacific time zone inventory.

This ain’t over.

Late game in Midwest or Mountain time zone can fill Pacific Time Zone inventory. Do not need PAC.

 

[isuno1fan]

Why would Oregon/Wash be a mis-take, in your opinion? Because they might leave for B1G, they might not either? The geography sucks? Cultural fit?

I'm genuine in my curiosity, not trying to start a fight.

Like I stated earlier, I'm starting to lean into the opinion that I want whatever combination of schools from the PAC, that makes the most dollars for the conference.

All of what you just said. Not worth it IMO.

 

[WhoISthis]

People on here are naive and unrealistic in coming to grips with how vulnerable the Big XII still is. We’re one move from being in realistic long-term trouble.

The #1 priority should be long-term stability, no matter HOW it comes.

Right, but that is not first taking WSU and Oregon St.

Since we're vulnerable, we can't afford that recklessness.

 

[RustShack]

They have 2 things we don’t:

1) TV contract is up sooner.

2) Pacific time zone inventory.

This ain’t over.

How are those pluses?

1. Their new contract will be less than our current, and new contract.

2. Pacific time zone doesn’t watch sports. We also have the Mountain, Central, and Eastern time zones.

 

[CoKane]

People on here are naive and unrealistic in coming to grips with how vulnerable the Big XII still is. We’re one move from being in realistic long-term trouble.

The #1 priority should be long-term stability, no matter HOW it comes.

Vulnerable from who exactly? The SEC took who they wanted already. Big 10 turned a bunch of us down last year. The Pac is in trouble and makes less than us, jumping there makes no sense. ACC cant add under their current GOR unless its Notre Dame. Nobody is knocking on the door

 

[jakemcilroy]

Vulnerable from who exactly? The SEC took who they wanted already. Big 10 turned a bunch of us down last year. The Pac is in trouble and makes less than us, jumping there makes no sense. ACC cant add under their current GOR unless its Notre Dame. Nobody is knocking on the door

One year ago the Big 12 was dead. Things change fast.

 

[2speedy1]

If Colorado comes back we will have 6 pretty easy road trips. CU, KU, KSU, OSU, UC, TCU

That is relative. I am glad we have those and they are all somewhat decent road trips. When you look at the Big 10 west they dont compare. Every single road trip for Iowa, (or for us) is as close or closer than KU, our closest road trip.

Getting CU back helps a little but it used to be one of our furthest road trips, now we are glad its one of the closest. The loss of Mizzou and Nebby still hurts for road trips.

 

[alarson]

One year ago the Big 12 was dead. Things change fast.

Especially when ESPN is orchestrating things behind the scenes.

If the big 12 doesn't have a dominant position when the ACC gets picked apart (which could be sooner than we have thought, there are open questions as to how ironclad their GOR actually is), ESPN could throw its weight around to get the ACC remnants to pick the best pieces of the big 12.

 

[simply1]

Arizona/Colorado are the two I want the most. They would be amazing fits in the league. And it would force the hand of the rest of them so ASU and maybe Utah would follow if they were smart.

Awful football though.

 

[exCyDing]

I could see them being a little short, but I'm skeptical too. the Big 10 is a P2 regardless. Oregon-Ohio St was Ohio St's 2nd best regular season game all year, only behind Michigan-OSU (which was #1 in the country).

It is like the BIG has done nearly everything possible to destabilize the PAC. As though they are trying to force the mountain 4 out. UCLA leaves without anything from CA politics (a whimper two weeks later). Allow UW and Oregon to not "know" their status while have standing applications (it is almost always a formality by the time that happens). Yet several schools knowing right away not to wait on BIG, whereas to prevent schools from leaving, the BIG should have said 'maybe". . Are they trying to get the mountain schools to leave so that it is not the BIG that "killed" the PAC, and Cal, Stanford, UW, Oregon all vote for dissolution, thereby getting FOX the PAC brand to use as division in BIG?

Probably not, and the likely reason is everyone is waiting on ND. But I don't know, the fastest way to get ND is for max realignment to continue.

Or maybe they do prefer to go after ACC, in efforts to force ND's hand, with UVa, FSU, Miami, UNC. That would get them ND imo, which pays for Stanford and Duke. And likely KU at that point, as I've read FOX has ambitions of using BIG plus Big East to monetize new CBB post-season. That's 24 and a P1 that get them at least 1st in every major area except Texas. It also ***** ESPN, and with UW, Oregon, Utah, AZ, ASU, CU added to Big 12, FOX would control college athletics and that's without any further ACC additions to Big 12 (Clemson, VT, NCSt likely to SEC, but I think basketball schools would be tempted to align with FOX in Big 12).

Would the BIG presidents not spend some of the huge increase they have coming to get Stanford and Cal in particular? Unlike the Big 12, they can still subsidize some of the move via BTN in-market in the bay area. Having all 4 CA schools, making CA a BIG state, while adding Stanford and Cal as Big 10 institutions? I'm surprised the BIG presidents would pass on that over their increase being less. The only better time in which the BIG can add those without it being obvious they are giving up some gains, is if ND goes first this summer (before new deal is finalized). Adding Cal and Stanford also means twice the exposure via double the amount of opportunities to put the Iowa or Nebraska types in that late timeslot. Midwest and east fans won't stay up for the late game if two mediocre Pac12 teams, but a BIG vs new BIG get new viewers.

At least on UW and Oregon, you could argue that they take resources away from CA, so locking them out in the Big 12 leaves more exporting of talent to the Midwest. But with 6 PAC they likely retain some of the value tradition (Rose Bowl) and own the west

Three things could force ND into a conference:

1. Falling so far behind financially that they’re not able to compete on the field. Anything less than that and they’re fine with leaving money on the table to stay independent.
2. Losing a place for their non-football sports.
3. Losing access to the playoffs.

The ACC is the real key to getting ND into the Big 10 because it takes away their non-football athletics home and gets us one step closer to an all Big 10/SEC playoff. Not that I think the playoffs will be stated as all-P2, but anyone outside the P2 will have the same level of access as the G5 currently has: go 11-1 and 12-0 and win your conference in successive years and maybe you’ll get the last seed.

 

[Stormin]

Especially when ESPN is orchestrating things behind the scenes.

If the big 12 doesn't have a dominant position when the ACC gets picked apart (which could be sooner than we have thought, there are open questions as to how ironclad their GOR actually is), ESPN could throw its weight around to get the ACC remnants to pick the best pieces of the big 12.

Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Boston College. Why would Big 12 teams join up with them? Those are what will be left.

 

[alarson]

Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Boston College. Why would Big 12 teams join up with them? Those are what will be left.

It will be a lot more than that. There are only a few schools that are actually accretive to the SEC\B10.

 

[isucy86]

Wrong. We have the chance to end a conference that’s been around in one form or another for about 100 years. To say the B12 was the one to finish it is what makes realignment fun. Survive and advance!

It's not the Big12's goal to end the Pac12. The TV rights marketplace will determine what happens to the Pac12 and Big12 long-term.

This isn't a difficult issue. Both the Big12 and Pac12 TV contracts end by summer 2025. Schools in both conferences have the same goal- maximize revenue per school.

The solution is a Big12/Pac12 consolidation. It's just a matter of whether that includes 12, 14, 16, 18, 20 or 22 schools. There is more money for the top-end schools through consolidation than separate conferences.

The other reality is once the combined school conference reaches 12 schools, the next 2 in each scenario probably isn't significantly dilutive. For example even if WSU & OSU are included in a 22 team conference that might drop per school revenue fron$40M to $37.5M.

 

[exCyDing]

Especially when ESPN is orchestrating things behind the scenes.

If the big 12 doesn't have a dominant position when the ACC gets picked apart (which could be sooner than we have thought, there are open questions as to how ironclad their GOR actually is), ESPN could throw its weight around to get the ACC remnants to pick the best pieces of the big 12.

I’m not sure who wins out if the XII and ACC try to raid each other. Probably depends on how many ACC teams are left after the Big 10 and SEC take their picks.

I don’t see any ACC teams as locks for either the Big 10 or ACC. Clemson is if they can maintain Dabo’s level of success, but his tenure isn’t their historical norm. Florida St is a mess. Their facilities need a major upgrade and administration needs to get cleaned up. Miami is worthwhile when they’re winning, but that’s been hit and miss for the past 20 years and life in the P2 is going to be tougher. NC and uVA have the academics and profile for the Big 10 minus the fanbases and football success. Better than Cal, but not by a ton. Past that, I don’t see any. Duke could maybe get into the Big 10 on academics and basketball, but they’d be the only school that could pull that off.

If the ACC loses 2 to the Big 10/ACC, maybe they poach some of the Easter schools off the Big XII - Cincinnati, WV, UCF (but they may be redundant) and a Texas school or two like Houston or TCU. If they lose more than 2, I think the Big XII would be in a significantly stronger position to take a few from the ACC rather than vice versa.

 

[BCClone]

That is relative. I am glad we have those and they are all somewhat decent road trips. When you look at the Big 10 west they dont compare. Every single road trip for Iowa, (or for us) is as close or closer than KU, our closest road trip.

Getting CU back helps a little but it used to be one of our furthest road trips, now we are glad its one of the closest. The loss of Mizzou and Nebby still hurts for road trips.

Always thought Lafayette was further than Lawrence and Manhattan.

 

[Stormin]

It will be a lot more than that. There are only a few schools that are actually accretive to the SEC\B10.

Bottom 8 teams of the ACC are not the ones you want to hitch your horse to. Below the Big 12 IMO.