Here are the updated RPI ranks:
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ISU remains at #45 for the third straight week after getting swept by BU over the weekend. Using strictly RPI to determine at large teams for the NCAA tourney, ISU is now #33 for the current pool of at large teams. There are 32 at large teams chosen.
Below are the Bubble Teams with a focus on Big 12 teams outside of BU and UT. ISU is done with conference play and finished 8-8. The rest of the conference wraps up play this week.
KSU is 6-8 and plays two matches against 6-8 KU this week at Manhattan. It would benefit ISU if one team sweeps the other with the loser likely being eliminated as an at large and the winner locking up a bid. ISU split with both teams.
Tech is 7-7 and hosts Texas at Lubbock. They likely end up at 7-9. ISU split with Tech.
West Virginia is 6-8 and plays at TCU. They likely sweep those matches and ends up at 8-8. ISU also split with WV.
So relative to other B12 teams on the bubble, best case scenario for ISU is KSU sweeping KU (or vice versa) and UT sweeping Tech. That would likely put ISU at #5 in the B12 pecking order behind BU, UT, KSU/KU and West Virginia.
Regarding other teams on the bubble, Notre Dame is currently 12-14 and closes on the road at #1 Louisville and #14 Florida St so count them out. Michigan is a lock to get in as they close at home vs Illinois and Northwestern.
South Carolina closes at home against Arkansas is what is essentially an at large elimination match. South Carolina is 6-11 conference play while Arkansas is 9-8. It would help ISU for Arkansas to win that match as South Carolina would surely be eliminated with a .500 record.
Syracuse is only 5-12 in the ACC and closes at 15-12 NC State (9-7 in ACC; 72 in RPI). It is likely a must win match for Syracuse and probably eliminated if they lose.
UPDATE: Syracuse beats NC State. Finishes 17-13 overall and 6-12 in ACC.
San Diego should be an at large lock at 14-3 in the strong WCC and a big non-con win over UCLA.
High Point's regular season is over as they lost to Campbell in the finals of the Big South tourney. They likely don't jump ISU as they don't have any non con wins of note.
Cincy is 12-6 in the AAC and closes at home vs East Carolina and at Temple. They will likely win both and jump ISU.
UPDATE: Cincy sweeps ECU on WED. At Temple on FRI.
Texas A&M is out as the best they can do is 14-14 and won't get bonus points for sweeping 4-24 Mizzou this weekend.
Ole Miss is 8-8 in the SEC and closes with a doubleheader vs Bama on the road. Bama is #170 in the RPI so an Ole Miss sweep is probable and they likely will jump ISU as well.
So the most likely scenario is Notre Dame, KU and Tech, fall below ISU in the pecking order, Cincy and Ole Miss jump ahead and ISU remains right at the cut line. As noted previously, the VB Selection Committee at large selections have historically closely correlated with RPI ranking. If ISU does get left out, that loss to TOE will be the dagger.
35 Kansas St. Big 12 15-10 AL
36 Notre Dame ACC 12-14 AL
37 Michigan Big Ten 16-11 AL
38 South Carolina SEC 14-13 AL
39 Kansas Big 12 14-11 AL
40 Texas Tech Big 12 17-10 AL
41 West Virginia Big 12 17-9 AL
42 Syracuse ACC 16-13 AL
43 San Diego WCC 20-6 AL
CUT LINE
45 Iowa St. Big 12 16-11
46 Arkansas SEC 18-10
47 High Point Big South 24-7
48 Cincinnati AAC 17-9
49 Texas A&M SEC 12-14
50 Ole Miss SEC 19-8
