2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

clone52

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I was curious about this and wanted to put this apparent offensive slump into perspective.

ISU's ADJOE on Torvik was 115.1 after @Houston, good for 33rd nationally

Now it's 114.8, not a huge drop, but now it's 52nd in the country.

The difference is that a lot of teams ranked 20-50 in the metric have been improving, I'd guess. Also, there's just not a lot of variance between teams 20-50.

Right now, the difference between 52) Iowa St and 20) Tennessee is the same as 5) Baylor to 1) Purdue

Purdue (128.6) - Baylor (124.7) = 3.9 difference
Tennesse (118.7) - Iowa State ( 114.8) = 3.9 difference

If it was still 115.1, we'd be ranked only 49th. So the drop the last 3 games wasn' tbad.

Do you happen to know what it was prior to Houston?
 

WhatchaGonnaDo

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If it was still 115.1, we'd be ranked only 49th. So the drop the last 3 games wasn' tbad.

Do you happen to know what it was prior to Houston?
Before @ Houston...114.9 (#36)

It actually went up a little bit after that loss
 

rosshm16

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I was curious about this and wanted to put this apparent offensive slump into perspective.

ISU's ADJOE on Torvik was 115.1 after @Houston, good for 33rd nationally

Now it's 114.8, not a huge drop, but now it's 52nd in the country.

The difference is that a lot of teams ranked 20-50 in the metric have been improving, I'd guess. Also, there's just not a lot of variance between teams 20-50.

Right now, the difference between 52) Iowa St and 20) Tennessee is the same as 5) Baylor to 1) Purdue

Purdue (128.6) - Baylor (124.7) = 3.9 difference
Tennesse (118.7) - Iowa State ( 114.8) = 3.9 difference
There seems to be a lot of teams in metrics this year clustered really close together. It seems like one game even very late in the year has a big effect on rankings.
 

goclones69

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If it was still 115.1, we'd be ranked only 49th. So the drop the last 3 games wasn' tbad.

Do you happen to know what it was prior to Houston?

I’m curious what the reasoning is behind offensive efficiency increasing nationwide this late in the season?
 

LLCoolCY

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Before @ Houston...114.9 (#36)

It actually went up a little bit after that loss

It does feel since the Houston game did cause a bit of hesitation in the passing, uptick in TO and short arming some shots. The physicality the Cougar imposed affects a lot of teams the next couple of games ISU defense does the same to the opponents. (I think UH only scored 26 in the 1st half vs UC).

I did dee some improvement vs UCF, ISU got 7-8 wide open 3's that the guys just didn't hit. If they get just 2 of those to go down the game isn't close. I trust that Jones, Lipsey and Milan can get back to their normal 3pt shooting prior to UH and the offensive number will rebound. I don't like the dip in offense but really think it is just a 3 game lull the team will get back to normal. We've see broken Offenses the past two years and this doesn't feel anywhere near as an issue.
 

madguy30

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I’m curious what the reasoning is behind offensive efficiency increasing nationwide this late in the season?

Informally I'd guess teams gelling late in the NIL/transfer era and this is the time of year when that may happen anyway.
 

8bitnes

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Do you not think ISU's coaches are doing that?

And does ISU have the athletes to make all changes needed by armchair coaches?
After halftime, yes. Prior to that, the first half game plan is consistently the same. The players even state as such in post game interviews previewing the next game.

I'm not asking the players to change, so armchair coaching isn't in play.
 
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8bitnes

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You don't think the coaches aren't adding wrinkles or emphasis on certain concepts or areas in scouting for an opponent to start the game?
Of course they are. And yet, the core concepts (the non wrinkles/points of emphasis) will remain the same. Those principles have led to lots of wins.

No one is arguing the coaches are doing a poor job. One can point out what we struggle with and not have it be a condemnation towards either the players or the coaches.
 
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VeloClone

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Of course they are. And yet, the core concepts (the non wrinkles/points of emphasis) will remain the same. Those principles have led to lots of wins.

No one is arguing the coaches are doing a poor job. One can point out what we struggle with and not have it be a condemnation towards either the players or the coaches.
Yes, agreed, little wrinkles.

But TJ is a firm believer that execution takes priority over radical changes. If ISU tries to change who they are one week for a particular opponent the team isn't doing what they have done daily for the last several months. Anyone who has been watching including just about every commentator that does an ISU game raves about ISU's rotations and defenders being in the right place and on time. That comes from repeating and executing the same philosophy again and again. ISU players don't have to take time to think, they know it to the level of muscule memory.

The same thing happens on offense but not necessarily to the same degree. But we have seen passes that we aren't even sure that the passer saw their teammate. They just knew that was where they were supposed to be and they trusted that they were executing the plan.

TJ will sacrifice a bit of trying to outwit the opponent with coaching tricks for his emphasis on execution and being true to the team they are.
 
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rosshm16

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After last night's victory over the Latter Day Saints (rankings in NET/KenPom/Torvik/BPI/SOR):
  • Iowa State: 8/11/7/9/5, avg = 8
  • Kansas: 15/17/10/15/8, avg = 13
  • Baylor: 13/13/14/13/7, avg = 12
  • Alabama: 7/9/13/8/13, avg = 10
  • Auburn: 6/6/5/6/14, avg = 7
  • Creighton: 11/10/12/10/16, avg = 12
  • Marquette: 14/14/9/14/9, avg = 12
I don't know what is the deal with Auburn. They are 1-7 in Quad 1 games, this is good enough for #6 NET??? Every other team in the NET top 25 has at least three Quad 1 wins, and every other non-SEC team in the top 15 has at least five. Their strength of schedule is unremarkable, #51 overall on KenPom, and #137 for non-conference.

What are their metrics so high?
 

Letterkenny

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After last night's victory over the Latter Day Saints (rankings in NET/KenPom/Torvik/BPI/SOR):
  • Iowa State: 8/11/7/9/5, avg = 8
  • Kansas: 15/17/10/15/8, avg = 13
  • Baylor: 13/13/14/13/7, avg = 12
  • Alabama: 7/9/13/8/13, avg = 10
  • Auburn: 6/6/5/6/14, avg = 7
  • Creighton: 11/10/12/10/16, avg = 12
  • Marquette: 14/14/9/14/9, avg = 12
I don't know what is the deal with Auburn. They are 1-7 in Quad 1 games, this is good enough for #6 NET??? Every other team in the NET top 25 has at least three Quad 1 wins, and every other non-SEC team in the top 15 has at least five. Their strength of schedule is unremarkable, #51 overall on KenPom, and #137 for non-conference.

What are their metrics so high?
The SEC taking a page from political playbooks. Get ESPN to spend a week harping on the Big 12 "gaming" the NET. All the while it's SEC teams actually doing all the "gaming".

The Big 12 "gaming" the system talking points 100% came from either the SEC or the Big Ten. No way ESPN just went off on that on their own. Always follow the money.
 

bawbie

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Don't look now, but in the last 3 games our opponents have shot 18% (12/65) from 3-pt range

And since the Baylor game (they went 12-23), in the nine games where we've gone 8-1 with the only loss at Houston, we've held opponents to 27.6% (54/195). Our 3-pt defense has gotten better and better as the year has gone on.
 

bawbie

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The other thing I find interesting is to look at our opponents turnovers against us vs. their season high:

Take aways:
7/13 conf opponents have their conference high in turnovers against us - and 10 opponents have their season high against us.

In conf teams we played twice, it was often one high TO game and one low. KU and Texas were the only conference teams we didn't turnover at a high rate - I'd love to play either of them in KC, I think we'd turn them over better the second time

Orlando sucked in a lot of ways

Anyone we play in the tourney won't have seen us before and likely won't be prepared for the level of defense we apply.

Specifics (from game logs on basketball-reference.com):
BYU - 17 (18 vs Cincy)
UCF - 20 (season high)
OU - 14 (18 vs. UNC / WVU)
WVU - 23 (season high)
Houston - 16 (season high)
TTU - 15 (17 vs. UTCC / UTA) [highest in conf]
Cincy - 21 (season high)
TCU - 26 (season high)
Texas - 12 (21 vs WVU)
Baylor - 18 (21 vs KU)
Kansas - 12 (18 vs Marq / TCU)
OSU - 19 (27 vs Tusla) [highest in conf]
KSU - 17 (19 vs Cincy)

UNH - 18 (19 vs NJIT)
EIU - 17 (18 vs IUPUI)
FAMU - 23 (season high)
PVAMU - 29 (season high)
Iowa - 19 (season high)
DePaul - 17 (22 vs Marq)
TAMU - 13 (18 vs Aub)
VT - 15 (21 vs Aub)
VCU - 16 (19 vs Samford)
Grambling - 20 (21 vs PVAMU / MVSU)
Idaho St - 24 (season high)
Lindenwood - 21 (season high)
Green Bay - 15 (20 vs Mont St)