NFL: 2023 Fantasy Football

Clark

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Jun 24, 2009
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Altoona
Yeah, I'm skeptical too but drafting 6th in a 10 team keeper league my thought is by the time I pick there isn't going to be much for 1st round caliber players available to select from so from a value perspective I think keeping Ekeler who will then be the #6 pick of the draft then targeting the best WR available with my 2nd round pick is my best path to getting the best players available with my early round picks. Tony Pollard and Garrett Wilson were 2 guys I was hoping to consider using my keeper pick on and I would have probably used it on Wilson had I had a top 3 pick in the draft with some options to nab one of the top players without having to use a 1st rounder on a keeper. At pick 6 in a keeper league I could be looking at a pool of guys that would be late 1st/early 2nd round guys so Ekeler to me is the safer keeper pick for where I am drafting.

I need to start researching who I want to target, I'd like to go Ekeler then WR WR then see what makes sense for best available WR/RB/TE positions in the 4th round. Last year I drafted my QB in round 7 which was Hurts and that panned out really well but I think he is off the board in the 5th or 6th round at worst this year given how the guys in my league like to target certain QBs. My sleeper target at RB this year kind of like Pollard was for me last year is Rachaad White. He should see a lot of volume and not much for depth behind him on the Bucs roster and he's going somewhere in the 60's overall in drafts.

I'd keep Pollard. I think he'll end up with roughly the same points as Ekelar and I'd rather have the sixth pick than the 19th pick.
 

cmjh10

Well-Known Member
Dec 5, 2012
22,655
14,583
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Buffalo Center
Anyone interested in joining a league with other CFers? Need 1 to get to 12.

PM me your email and I will send the link.
 

CYdTracked

Well-Known Member
Mar 23, 2006
17,079
7,793
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Grimes, IA
Just finished my draft and Yahoo has me projected 6 out of 10 with a 7-7 record with this roster:

1.(6)Austin Ekeler  (LAC - RB)
2.(15)A.J. Brown (Phi - WR)
3.(26)Tee Higgins (Cin - WR)
4.(35)Deebo Samuel (SF - WR)
5.(46)George Kittle (SF - TE)
6.(55)Joe Burrow (Cin - QB)
7.(66)Cam Akers (LAR - RB)
8.(75)Rachaad White (TB - RB)
9.(86)Jahan Dotson (Was - WR)
10.(95)Rashaad Penny (Phi - RB)
11.(106)Skyy Moore (KC - WR)
12.(115)JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE - WR)
13.(126)Odell Beckham Jr. (Bal - WR)
14.(135)Brock Purdy (SF - QB)
15.(146)New York (NYG - DEF)
16.(155)Cameron Dicker (LAC - K)

QB started to go off the board in the 6th round and Fields went the pick before me so I panicked and took Burrow and drafted Purdy late as insurance. Rodgers went 3 picks ahead of me in the 10th else I would have nabbed him there. I took on a lot of risky picks I think but could have some big rewards if they are healthy and productive. I think White in the 8th round has the potential to be a big steal and stocked up on WR rounds 11-13 that could be high volume guys.
 

chadly82

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Sep 10, 2009
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Had my first draft yesterday, 12 team, 2 QB in espn ppr. I feel like I nailed it but we shall see. Took Lawrence at 4 to start since I think he will out perform everyone ahead of him except mahomes in total points. Fingers crossed
 
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NWICY

Well-Known Member
Sep 2, 2012
29,534
24,973
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Season is right around the corner. Who is getting ready?

I’m in a league at my job where instead of drafting a defense, you have 2 defensive players. I’ve never done that, anyone have tips for that?

Put on those Cyclone colored glasses and pick Will McDonald.
 

4theCYcle

Well-Known Member
Jul 14, 2013
2,277
1,185
113
Urbandale, IA
Just finished my draft and Yahoo has me projected 6 out of 10 with a 7-7 record with this roster:

1.(6)Austin Ekeler  (LAC - RB)
2.(15)A.J. Brown (Phi - WR)
3.(26)Tee Higgins (Cin - WR)
4.(35)Deebo Samuel (SF - WR)
5.(46)George Kittle (SF - TE)
6.(55)Joe Burrow (Cin - QB)
7.(66)Cam Akers (LAR - RB)
8.(75)Rachaad White (TB - RB)
9.(86)Jahan Dotson (Was - WR)
10.(95)Rashaad Penny (Phi - RB)
11.(106)Skyy Moore (KC - WR)
12.(115)JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE - WR)
13.(126)Odell Beckham Jr. (Bal - WR)
14.(135)Brock Purdy (SF - QB)
15.(146)New York (NYG - DEF)
16.(155)Cameron Dicker (LAC - K)

QB started to go off the board in the 6th round and Fields went the pick before me so I panicked and took Burrow and drafted Purdy late as insurance. Rodgers went 3 picks ahead of me in the 10th else I would have nabbed him there. I took on a lot of risky picks I think but could have some big rewards if they are healthy and productive. I think White in the 8th round has the potential to be a big steal and stocked up on WR rounds 11-13 that could be high volume guys.
I like Brown. Higgins is safe. And I actually really like the Akers/White/Dotson in a row. Moore could be sneaky. Last 6 games of Akers last year was hopefully what you see this year. White seems to be the bellcow and where you got him was great. I love Dotson and he could be the better value and probably finishes close to McLaurin. I had my draft on Saturday and I messed up by not grabbing Akers where I needed to. Thought for sure I could get one of Akers, White, JCook, or Javonte Williams and they went all 4 in a row. I was stuck with Dalvin Cook as my first bench RB. Was not my best work in that area.
 

cyfanatic13

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 19, 2008
11,115
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Had my draft in the league I care the most about last night, 12 team full point PPR, two flex spots, I had the 9th pick. Didn’t do a ton of research mainly just had some notes from a few Twitter/tik toks. Ended up with:

QB- Watson, Pickett
RB- Henry, Rachaad White, Javonte Williams, James Cook
WR- Kupp, Ridley, Burks, Elijah Moore, Claypool Jameson Williams, Jalin Hyatt
TE- Njoku, Freiermuth

Probably not a league winner but we’ll win some games along the way
 

4theCYcle

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Jul 14, 2013
2,277
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Urbandale, IA
I don't understand this rationale at all. Yeah, Allen and Williams were hurt but the Ekeler deniers acts like he just had an outlier season. He's alwasy been an elite pass catcher, he had 92 receptions back in 2019, 70 in 2021 and was was on pace for over 80 in 202 before he got hurt.

Plus you guys act like Moore never gets the running backs involved in the passing game when Elliott and Pollard were elite pass catching backs in Dallas.

Yeah, his receptions might go down, but his TD upside is still immense in that offense. Allen averages about 6 Tds a year, Williams might get 8, where do you think the other 40 or so will come from, it will be Ekeler and a combination of auxiliary players.
I'm not an Ekeler denier. You make good points and I'm just saying that his production likely won't be the same. I'm not calling him a bust, but there are many factors to consider. He's 28. He had 33 more targets last year than the prior year. Different OC. Herbert will likely look downfield more. Yeah, Williams and Allen didn't have many TDs, but they do have Joshua Palmer and added Quentin Johnson. I just like WR earlier this year because they seem to be injured less often and generally are harder to replace or find waiver wires versus rbs. The trend is WRs are going heavier and earlier so they fall off quicker like RBs did in the past.
 

CYdTracked

Well-Known Member
Mar 23, 2006
17,079
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Grimes, IA
I like Brown. Higgins is safe. And I actually really like the Akers/White/Dotson in a row. Moore could be sneaky. Last 6 games of Akers last year was hopefully what you see this year. White seems to be the bellcow and where you got him was great. I love Dotson and he could be the better value and probably finishes close to McLaurin. I had my draft on Saturday and I messed up by not grabbing Akers where I needed to. Thought for sure I could get one of Akers, White, JCook, or Javonte Williams and they went all 4 in a row. I was stuck with Dalvin Cook as my first bench RB. Was not my best work in that area.

Yeah I don't read too much in what Yahoo! grades drafts as they analyze too much about where you picked guys based on ADP. If you got them later than ADP they think you made a great pick but if you pick a guy before his ADP then they say its a bad pick. For instance I got Burrow at 55 when his ADP is 42 so that was my "best" pick. My "worst" was Dotson at 86 when his ADP was 104. That's a 9th round pick and at WR there wan't much there. Jordan Addison went with the next pick then in round 10 other WR to go were Elijah Moore, Michael Thomas, and Jaxon Smith Njiba and I think Dotson has more upside than those guys.

I think Akers and White have potential sleepr value where I took them as both are going to be high volume RB I think and could surprise. My goal was to load up on WR after using my keeper on Ekeler and then pick my spot to get my QB and RB2 when the WR/TE pool started to dry up. Felt I did that rounds 6-8 as if I waited another round I think those guys would not have been there with my next pick.

Was listening to fantasy radio on XM this morning and some guy called in that he got stuck with Goff as his QB and the hosts were asking if guys like Purdy, Pickett, Love, or Howell were available, I think he said Howell was the only one out there and the host made a point that people are overlooking Purdy as a late pick to have as your QB2 as there is a lot of upside with the SF offense so made me feel OK about picking him in case Burrow is not ready to go week 1.
 
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4theCYcle

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Jul 14, 2013
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Urbandale, IA
Very true. I love Dotson. I really wanted him in Saturdays draft but someone took him right before I was planning on it. His metrics and analytics are fantastic and he will be a 2nd year breakout. Based on his value and how he performed with the QB play they had, everything screams perform this year. I think Howell will be an upgrade for him.

I have Goff as my backup behind GSmith (QB5 in our league last year). I didn't have a 4th round pick or a 10th, so I had to do some trading of picks and look for as much value as I could. But you're right with yahoo grading drafts. I was hoping to move back and grab Gibbs later than I did, but I at least moved my 6th rounder up 9 picks.
 
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CYdTracked

Well-Known Member
Mar 23, 2006
17,079
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Very true. I love Dotson. I really wanted him in Saturdays draft but someone took him right before I was planning on it. His metrics and analytics are fantastic and he will be a 2nd year breakout. Based on his value and how he performed with the QB play they had, everything screams perform this year. I think Howell will be an upgrade for him.

I have Goff as my backup behind GSmith (QB5 in our league last year). I didn't have a 4th round pick or a 10th, so I had to do some trading of picks and look for as much value as I could. But you're right with yahoo grading drafts. I was hoping to move back and grab Gibbs later than I did, but I at least moved my 6th rounder up 9 picks.
My brother is in the same league and I thought he had a pretty decent draft but Yahoo disagrees and has him projected for 3 wins and a 9th out of 10 place finish. His draft by round:

CMC (keeper)
Garrett Wilson
Waddle
Johnathan Taylor
Keenan Allen
Miles Sanders
D Watson (he didn't like this pick but bunch of QB went off the board right before this)
Kamara
Mike Evans
A Rodgers (this could turn into a good pick I think)
R Bateman
Jamaal Williams
D Shultz
K Toney
J Sanders K
Pittsburgh Def

I think the Taylor pick could be a really good one potentially, the Kamara one is risky but he at least drafted his handcuff in Williams.
 

NoCreativity

Well-Known Member
Nov 12, 2015
10,859
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Des Moines
I'm not an Ekeler denier. You make good points and I'm just saying that his production likely won't be the same. I'm not calling him a bust, but there are many factors to consider. He's 28. He had 33 more targets last year than the prior year. Different OC. Herbert will likely look downfield more. Yeah, Williams and Allen didn't have many TDs, but they do have Joshua Palmer and added Quentin Johnson. I just like WR earlier this year because they seem to be injured less often and generally are harder to replace or find waiver wires versus rbs. The trend is WRs are going heavier and earlier so they fall off quicker like RBs did in the past.
Running backs win you championships. I looked back at 18 years worth of data in my home league. The league was a 12 team ppr that is now a 10 team ppr for about the last 10 years.


All 18 years the eventual league champion had at least one elite rb. The lowest rb any champion had was RB9 in 18 years. I went back and averaged the top rb for each champion and in an average year they had the RB3.9.

So basically in an average year you need a top 4 RB to win a title. To take it a step further, only 4 out of the 18 years did a team have more than one Top-10 running back. So basically 1 stud can carry your team but 2 aren't really necessary to win .

I know it's only 1 league but I think 18 years is enough to prove my point. I think this is evidence the "Hero RB" could work very well.

Last year the two teams that absolutely dominated my league had Ekeler/Jacobs and Barkely/Henry. Two of the 4 teams that missed the playoffs had Josh Allen and Hurts as their QB. I had Jefferson and finished 6-8 and didn't make the playoffs. Two years ago our league champ had Chubb Fournette. I won back to back titles in 17 and 18 with Kamara and Hunt.

I think you bet my point. I have no issues loading up on receivers early but you won't win it without 1 stud Rb.

Let's say you take something like Kupp-Wilson-Mahomes-Etienne as your build. What happens when Etienne only finishes as RB14 because Bigsby ate into his workload? The only way you stand any chance at that point is you hit on someone like Montgomery/ Dobbins later in your draft and they have a career year and one finishes like RB6 or something.

Like I said, I like recievers too, but don't buy into all this zero-rb stuff like alot of people preach this year. I'd draft Ekeler with full confidence before any receivers not named Jefferson/Chase/Kupp.
 
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4theCYcle

Well-Known Member
Jul 14, 2013
2,277
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Urbandale, IA
Running backs win you championships. I looked back at 18 years worth of data in my home league. The league was a 12 team ppr that is now a 10 team ppr for about the last 10 years.


All 18 years the eventual league champion had at least one elite rb. The lowest rb any champion had was RB9 in 18 years. I went back and averaged the top rb for each champion and in an average year they had the RB3.9.

So basically in an average year you need a top 4 RB to win a title. To take it a step further, only 4 out of the 18 years did a team have more than one Top-10 running back. So basically 1 stud can carry your team but 2 aren't really necessary to win .

I know it's only 1 league but I think 18 years is enough to prove my point. I think this is evidence the "Hero RB" could work very well.

Last year the two teams that absolutely dominated my league had Ekeler/Jacobs and Barkely/Henry. Two of the 4 teams that missed the playoffs had Josh Allen and Hurts as their QB. I had Jefferson and finished 6-8 and didn't make the playoffs. Two years ago our league champ had Chubb Fournette. I won back to back titles in 17 and 18 with Kamara and Hunt.

I think you bet my point. I have no issues loading up on receivers early but you won't win it without 1 stud Rb.

Let's say you take something like Kupp-Wilson-Mahomes-Etienne as your build. What happens when Etienne only finishes as RB14 because Bigsby ate into his workload? The only way you stand any chance at that point is you hit on someone like Montgomery/ Dobbins later in your draft and they have a career year and one finishes like RB6 or something.

Like I said, I like recievers too, but don't buy into all this zero-rb stuff like alot of people preach this year. I'd draft Ekeler with full confidence before any receivers not named Jefferson/Chase/Kupp.
All leagues and scoring are set up differently. Yeah, generally a team that wins has a high scoring solid back or someone who landed a game changer mid season. Last year the champion in my main league had Rashad Penny who put him over the top and he grabbed him off waivers later in the season. Our league trades picks so it can get kind of crazy with teams selling midseason. We also have 3 WRs/no flex/QB TDs worth 6 points so it carries a different weight with each position. QBs are a little more important in our league and having 3 WR sets does put a little emphasis on them too.

I usually draft a balanced team where I draft a lot of WRs and RBs and wait on QB/TE. Last night I got Adams/Chubb as first two picks, night before Kupp/Jacobs, other team Diggs/Adams. I generally like the Hero RB strategy, but I feel like looking back at our history with drafts, the hit rate in the first round is better for WRs than it is for RBs because of injuries.

The argument for your side is the league has changed a lot the last 5 years where teams are kind of throwing more, RBs aren't carrying a huge load like they do, and more teams are valuing RBs differently where they have more of a committee. So there are no Derrick Henrys anymore. There are less and less bellcow workhorse backs each year where yeah grabbing the certain bellcow early helps.
 

Gonzo

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2009
23,610
26,000
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Behind you
Anyone here do auction draft for their league? Interested in others' budgeting strategies for 12-team, full ppr draft. Ours uses a $200 draft budget.
 
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