This is was a good trade with a high chance of becoming great and a low chance of becoming awful.
Rooker was going to get knocked off the 40 man and someone was going to nab him for free, so losing him was nothing.
Twins get a PTBNL, which is just a lottery ticket.
Rogers is a great closer and will be missed. This is where the low chance of being awful comes from. However, he's coming off an injury, so no sure thing. He leaves the Twins after this year (they won't pay a RP what Rogers will get). They already have Duffey, Thielbar and Alcala for high leverage situations. Duran might also step in right away in that role. They have a few other free agent RPs that might be reliable, a la Coulombe last year or Wisler the year before. Plus, Stashak has been really good at times and Griffen Jax might thrive too. They had a really good bullpen in the 2nd half last year without Rogers, so I think they'll be able to shuffle guys back and forth from St. Paul to piece together a good bullpen this year.
At a minimum, Emilio Pagan falls into that list of rotational relive pitchers where you ride the hot hand. He was excellent in 2017, blah in 2018, elite in 2019 blah in 2020/21. Tampa got him to elite in 2019, so I like our chances to do the same. If he does that, then him for Rogers 1 for 1 isn't a bad trade. Plus the Twins get him for 2 years.
Paddack's first 3 years look a lot like Kyle Gibson's, except he was 3 years younger, had way more strikeouts and way more walks. Its very likely he turns into a Kyle Gibson for 3 years. Worst case, he moves to the bullpen if his third pitch doesn't develop. He was fantastic in the first 3 innings of games his entire career, so he could be an elite RP. Small chance is that he has more raw talent than Kyle Gibson and turns into a borderline #2 SP.