MLB: Are advanced metrics ruining baseball?

[theshadow]

Analytics aren't ruining the game. The reliance on analytics as if they are the gospel is ruining the game. Managers overthink/outthink themselves.

Bringing in a pitcher to throw 1-4 pitches (1 batter), and then doing that song and dance throughout innings 7-9. Then, we get to the point that you can't bring in Reliever X, because he's thrown 3 pitches in 5 of the last 7 games and is therefore "too fatigued." That, in turn, leads to ludicrous things like a position player taking the hill.

 

[Doc]

I do not know why anybody would find having a more accurate, less romantic view of the quality of players and the quality of teams reduces their enjoyment of a game.

The proliferation of advanced statistics analysis for basketball, and especially college basketball (e.g., KenPom, Barttovik, TeamRankings, Sports Reference, etc.) has greatly drawn me into that sport in ways I had never really appreciated it beforehand.

It's not the stats like WAR or ORtg that kill it for me. It's the analytics that leads to the in-game decision making. I don't watch baseball hardly at all anymore, but there's little variation in strategy outside pitcher/hitter battle. Manager's are pretty much out there to wear their uniforms and do what their analytics department tells them is optimal. Prospects are ranked on exit velocity and launch angles, not dingers.

Basketball is moving the same way into a very controlled environment where teams stick guys in the corners and try to turn it into an optimal two or three man game.

My suggestion is to create a sport where the parameters are constantly changing. A basketball court where the dimensions are a changing, where point values are changing. Keep the teams on their toes and make them play a variety of styles.

Kids nowadays like watching people play video games rather than baseball. I don't think it's because the kids are stupid, it's because they're smart. They are watching more complex things than we did as children.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Baseball has gone from the national pastime to a very regional sport. Few care about ESPN's game of the week on Sunday, when they can now watch everyone of the games of their favorite team.
I love baseball, and we have the Cardinals on every night during the season. But the league has flooded the market, and many of us only care to watch our favorite team. I could care less about the Yankees or Boston.
I will turn an NFL game or college football game on and watch it, but another MLB game not involving the Cardinals, not interested, unless there is just nothing else on.

 

[MJ271]

People keep talking about home runs and strikeouts, so I just wanted to look to see if the numbers back up the rhetoric. (Link below, stats are averages per team per game)

Unsurprisingly, we are seeing more strikeouts and home runs, lower batting average, less stolen bases, but we're talking about a just few at bats a game that have changed. 2 more strikeouts per game than 20 years ago, about the same for home runs, matching the steroid era, 0.2 fewer stolen bases, one fewer total base. I don't really get the idea that those 2-3 plate appearances being affected changes the entire enjoyment of a game and makes it near unwatchable. I will admit that the frequent pitching changes are an analytic idea and make the game less enjoyable, but that's something that the MLB could do something about relatively easily just by restricting the number of mid-inning pitching changes over the course of the game.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think baseball dug its own grave with some of the issues brought up here.

If I can bring up two related to the size/shape of ballparks...

Over the past century, major league stadiums have progressive acquired shorter fences, less "weirdness" and idiosyncrasies in their outfield configurations, fewer unique nooks and crannies, and less and less foul space in-play behind home plate.

The upshot of this?

...the fences are easier to swing towards simply for being closer...

...big cuts that lead to foul pop-ups now go a row or two into the stands when, in the past, there is a better chance those fouls are caught by a catcher or infielder...

...outfielders have less ground to cover and fewer weird things to worry about, giving line-drive and contact hitters with only modest power fewer and fewer options...

The shape/size/configuration of parks have helped optimize the game towards power hitting at least as much as the analytics revolution of the past two decades. People like home runs and dislike lame popups behind home plate and like being closer to the game, so smaller parks with less ground out of play (which pushes seats further back) is the result.

The game built parks around homers and the live fan experience, and hitters predictable have reacted to it. The whole ecosystem matters, not just analytics.

This reminds me slightly of one of the factors that reduced my interest in NASCAR -- the season used to have way more variation in its tracks, but it is now dominated by bland 1.5 mile triovals. Ditching tracks like Rockingham and/or taking away the second race from interesting circuits like Darlington or short-tracks made some immediate economic sense, but the long-term effects on the "flavor" of the experience was negative for the observer.

We can blame the nerds and their calculators if we want to, but in the same way the sexual revolution came from the invention of the automobile and not anything written in a book by some social theorist, the geography of ballparks has had a huge impact here.

 

[SouthJerseyCy]

Advanced Stats are ruining baseball because it is taking the fun out of the game. Everything now is based off of strike outs and HR's. There are no singles anymore, there are no stolen basis anymore, there are less great defensive plays because everyone is getting struck out. You don't score from second anymore, you rarely go 1st to 3rd, stuff like that.

If you play by the Metrics, (OBP, K/9, SLG) you will probably win more games, but it takes the exciting parts of the game away. They have essentially created a computer simulation of a baseball game, and its boring.

Plus the old white guys keeping kids from having fun has a huge effect on the game. Watch a Korean or Dominican League game and they are so much fun to watch. LET THEM FLIP BATS!

Watch the Astros. There isn't any team more committed to analytics than them, but they are very aggressive on the basepaths.

Now I'm with you on your last paragraph. Baseballs 'unwritten rules' are a huge fun-killer on the sport.

I'd say blackout restrictions are a huge problem. I'm 'lucky' that I'm not in the geographic area of the Astros, so I can watch almost every game. MLB.tv has renewed my interest in the sport (along with the Astros resurgence). It's awesome to be able to start a game 30-45 minutes late and buzz through in between innings, even skip full innings if the game is dragging. I pay about $0.50 a game for 5-6 nights of entertainment a week.

 

[LindenCy]

Watch the Astros. There isn't any team more committed to analytics than them, but they are very aggressive on the basepaths.

Now I'm with you on your last paragraph. Baseballs 'unwritten rules' are a huge fun-killer on the sport.

I'd say blackout restrictions are a huge problem. I'm 'lucky' that I'm not in the geographic area of the Astros, so I can watch almost every game. MLB.tv has renewed my interest in the sport (along with the Astros resurgence). It's awesome to be able to start a game 30-45 minutes late and buzz through in between innings, even skip full innings if the game is dragging. I pay about $0.50 a game for 5-6 nights of entertainment a week.

Man, I am going to get this next year I think.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

A lot of bad takes in here.

 

[Rabbuk]

I'd be ok with less shifting, just because it destroys offense

 

[jmb]

Advanced Stats are ruining baseball because it is taking the fun out of the game. Everything now is based off of strike outs and HR's. There are no singles anymore, there are no stolen basis anymore, there are less great defensive plays because everyone is getting struck out. You don't score from second anymore, you rarely go 1st to 3rd, stuff like that.

If you play by the Metrics, (OBP, K/9, SLG) you will probably win more games, but it takes the exciting parts of the game away. They have essentially created a computer simulation of a baseball game, and its boring.

Plus the old white guys keeping kids from having fun has a huge effect on the game. Watch a Korean or Dominican League game and they are so much fun to watch. LET THEM FLIP BATS!

You seem to misunderstand what the stats are about.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Baseball has always been about statistics. Purists are just whining that "their" statistics are being replaced by "advanced" statistics that are far better at doing the job.

 

[jmb]

Baseball has always been about statistics. Purists are just whining that "their" statistics are being replaced by "advanced" statistics that are far better at doing the job.

The perception has been it is stats game. There are folks that have actually made it as such. The piss poor math people are the irritated.

 

[AuH2O]

People keep talking about home runs and strikeouts, so I just wanted to look to see if the numbers back up the rhetoric. (Link below, stats are averages per team per game)

Unsurprisingly, we are seeing more strikeouts and home runs, lower batting average, less stolen bases, but we're talking about a just few at bats a game that have changed. 2 more strikeouts per game than 20 years ago, about the same for home runs, matching the steroid era, 0.2 fewer stolen bases, one fewer total base. I don't really get the idea that those 2-3 plate appearances being affected changes the entire enjoyment of a game and makes it near unwatchable. I will admit that the frequent pitching changes are an analytic idea and make the game less enjoyable, but that's something that the MLB could do something about relatively easily just by restricting the number of mid-inning pitching changes over the course of the game.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

Add to that number of pitches per at bat. Compared to 30 years ago pitched per at bat is up close to 10%. So you are adding 15-20 minutes alone just by that fact. That alone isn't a big deal, but that, plus the pitching changes, plus the changes you quantified add up.

 

[AuH2O]

I think baseball dug its own grave with some of the issues brought up here.

If I can bring up two related to the size/shape of ballparks...

Over the past century, major league stadiums have progressive acquired shorter fences, less "weirdness" and idiosyncrasies in their outfield configurations, fewer unique nooks and crannies, and less and less foul space in-play behind home plate.

The upshot of this?

...the fences are easier to swing towards simply for being closer...

...big cuts that lead to foul pop ups now go a row or two into the stands when, in the past, there is a better chance those fouls are caught by a catcher or infielder...

...outfielders have less ground to cover and fewer weird things to worry about, giving line-drive and contact hitters with only modest power fewer and fewer options...

The shape/size/configuration of parks have helped optimize the game towards power hitting at least as much as the analytics revolution of the past two decades. People like home runs and dislike lame popups behind home plate and like being closer to the game, so smaller parks with less ground out of play (which pushes seats further back) is the results.

The game built parks around homers and the live fan experience, and hitters predictable have reacted to it. The whole ecosystem matters, not just analytics.

This reminds me slightly of one of the factors that reduced my interest in NASCAR -- the season used to have way more variation in its tracks, but it is now dominated by bland 1.5 mile triovals. Ditching tracks like Rockingham and/or taking away the second race from interesting circuits like Darlington or short-tracks made some immediate economic sense, but the long-term effects on the "flavor" of the experience was negative for the fan experience.

We can blame the nerds and their calculators if we want to, but in the same way the sexual revolution came from the invention of the automobile and not anything written in a book by some social theorist, the geography of ballparks has had a huge impact here.

I have wondered for a long time if a small market team that struggles to attract free agents should build their next stadium as a real pitcher friendly park. Load up on speed and defensive talent up the middle and be a desirable FA for pitchers. My best friends growing up and I are Twins, Royals, and Pirates fans, so we had lots of dumb ideas like this to make a winner out of small market teams.

 

[theshadow]

 

[jbhtexas]

I'd be ok with less shifting, just because it destroys offense

Shifting is nothing new. Defenses put shifts on Ted Williams and Babe Ruth. Ted Williams backed off the plate a bit, hit a few to the opposite field, and the Ted Williams Shift was history.

If a hitter isn't even going to try to hit the ball to 50% of the playing field, why should defenses be forced to put players there? Would you apply the same standard to basketball, say forcing defenses to guard all players beyond the three point line?

 

[Rabbuk]

Shifting is nothing new. Defenses put shifts on Ted Williams and Babe Ruth. Ted Williams backed off the plate a bit, hit a few to the opposite field, and the Ted Williams Shift was history.

If a hitter isn't even going to try to hit the ball to 50% of the playing field, why should defenses be forced to put players there? Would you apply the same standard to basketball, say forcing defenses to guard all players beyond the three point line?

The shifts that we are seeing are absolutely new.

 

[thatguy]

You seem to misunderstand what the stats are about.

I understand that winning games is the point of all of this. But that doesn't mean it makes it more enjoyable. I can't watch Virginia basketball or Bo Ryan era Wisconsin basketball, but they sure won a ton of games. Baseball is more entertaining when the ball is in play, and the K/HR revolution has taken allot of that away.

 

[thatguy]

Baseball has always been about statistics. Purists are just whining that "their" statistics are being replaced by "advanced" statistics that are far better at doing the job.

Baseball has always been about personal statistics, now it is about team statistics. That is the difference. I am on Baseball Prospectus and those sights more than the next guy, and I think exit velocity and launch angle are the two most important stats for a hitter, but that doesn't change the absolute fact that the games are slower and less exciting when everyone is sitting around waiting or trying to prevent the 3 run HR.

 

[jbhtexas]

The shifts that we are seeing are absolutely new.

Really? In what way?