Bracket Discussion

[NiceMarmot]

HeatCheck has us v Iowa in the second round. No thank you.

Just with how bracketing principles work and trying to place teams as close as possible to their school location, I think it's somewhat likely Iowa is the 6/7/8 in a pod with a Big 12 team. There are just too many Big 12 teams that are lining up to be 2/3/4 seeds that will play in Des Moines or Columbus or Denver where it also makes sense for Iowa to play at those tourney sites. Now if Iowa goes on a winning streak, they could move up to the 4/5 line. Their resume looks shockingly good if you remove that Eastern Illinois loss -- 7-5 against Q1, 10-6 against Q1+Q2.

 

[CentexCyclone]

No exceptional teams. A good year to bet on a 9-16 team winning the tournament.
Beware of Hampton

 

[cyfan92]

Is the mid season bracket reveal still a thing? I kept thinking it’s usually late January, but never saw anything

The women's top 16 come out Thursday..

Historically the men's top 16 has been revealed around Valentine's Day. But I too haven't heard anything

 

[CycloneErik]

My intuition is telling me that we're going to run across Perdue at some point in the tourney, and I cant wait to see it happen.

I'm just posting this prediction so when I'm right I can net 100 likes, because likes are why I get up in the morning.




about the likes. But dead serious about seeing Perdue in the NCAAs.

Will he be there?

 

[cyclones500]

Is the mid season bracket reveal still a thing? I kept thinking it’s usually late January, but never saw anything

I haven't seen anything specific yet. Quick search, last season's reveal was Feb. 19 - so maybe Feb. 18. (Unless they aren't doing one this season ... which would surprise me unless it didn't get a lot of attention/viewership).

Edit: @cyfan92 beat me to it.

 

[cyfan92]

IMO the path to Des Moines is clear.. Win out at home, get 1 road game, and you lock up a top 4 seed.

If that doesn't happen, we need to start cheering against Marquette.

 

[simply1]

 

[cyfan92]

Is it normal to be at this point in the year and have 15-20 teams have an argument for a deeo run come March?

 

[Cyclonepride]

Lunardi has UCLA 5th?

 

[helechopper]

Will he be there?

Most def.

 

[cyclones500]

Lunardi has UCLA 5th?

I haven't reviewed his latest bracket, I assume he's thinking UCLA as a 2 has a better "path" compared to some others 1s & 2s, based on bracket structure/matchups.

More interesting he has UConn as 5 seed but with 7th best probability to win title.

I would "sell" SMC at 10th-best to win title. Maybe could make a deep run but I think E8 is ceiling.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I haven't reviewed his latest bracket, I assume he's thinking UCLA as a 2 has a better "path" compared to some others 1s & 2s, based on bracket structure/matchups.

More interesting he has UConn as 5 seed but with 7th best probability to win title.

I would "sell" SMC at 10th-best to win title. Maybe could make a deep run but I think E8 is ceiling.

I wasn't sure if this was all his doing, or someone translating his seeds into probabilities. Funny that UConn has relatively poor odds of advancing to the 2nd round, but pretty good odds at the championship game.

 

[simply1]

Lunardi has UCLA 5th?

I think that’s wrong



Edit: probably ranking versus overall ranking

 

[cyclones500]

I wasn't sure if this was all his doing, or someone translating his seeds into probabilities. Funny that UConn has relatively poor odds of advancing to the 2nd round, but pretty good odds at the championship game.

Good question, without digging, that it is someone else's analysis.

I noticed some of those with low odds for some rounds but good odds for later rounds. The "could bounce early, but if team survives, deep run is possible." (And some of that may depend on projected matchups)

 

[simply1]

Good question, without digging, that it was someone else's analysis.

I noticed some of those with low odds for some rounds but good odds for later rounds. The "could bounce early, but if team survives, deep run is possible." (And some of that may depend on projected matchups)

Yeah it’s his analysis

 

[cyclones500]

Lunardi's update from this morning (link)

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/s...logy-2023-march-madness-men-field-predictions.

Summary of bracketing for top 4 seeds. Numeral in parentheses designates order of #1 seeds ... “vs.” denotes Final Four bracket pairing.

SOUTH (1)
1 Purdue
4 Xavier
3 Iowa State
2 UCLA
(vs)
WEST (4)
1 Arizona
4 Gonzaga
3 Marquette
2 Texas

MIDWEST (2)
1 Alabama
4 Kansas State
3 Virginia
2 Kansas
(vs)
EAST (3)
1 Houston
4 TCU
3 Baylor
2 Tennessee

 

[CycloneErik]

Lunardi's update from this morning (link)

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/s...logy-2023-march-madness-men-field-predictions.

Summary of bracketing for top 4 seeds. Numeral in parentheses designates order of #1 seeds ... “vs.” denotes Final Four bracket pairing.

SOUTH (1)
1 Purdue
4 Xavier
3 Iowa State
2 UCLA
(vs)
WEST (4)
1 Arizona
4 Gonzaga
3 Marquette
2 Texas

MIDWEST (2)
1 Alabama
4 Kansas State
3 Virginia
2 Kansas
(vs)
EAST (3)
1 Houston
4 TCU
3 Baylor
2 Tennessee

Alabama having to win the Kansas regional in KC is interesting.

 

[cyclones500]

Alabama having to win the Kansas regional in KC is interesting.

That is an oddity.

I don't know how often that sort of thing happens as far as 1/2 seed pairing, but it might be more frequent than I remember.

Several years ago UNC was 1 & KU 2 in a Midwest region (maybe St. Louis??) ...

Seems more common in region involving the 4th overall 1, as far as geography.

(Going completely from memory for all of this)

 

[NebraskaCY]

IMO the path to Des Moines is clear.. Win out at home, get 1 road game, and you lock up a top 4 seed.

If that doesn't happen, we need to start cheering against Marquette.

Just being a 4-seed or higher won't get you into DM. The two highest seeded teams between ISU and the Kansas schools will be playing in DM. The third is the odd man out.

 

[cyclonewino]

I like the simulation.