Finally was able to update my bracket projection for the first time in about 5 days.
- Marquette, ISU, Creighton, and Baylor at 7-10 in my seed list is about as close as it can possibly be. ISU/Baylor are the 2/3 seeds in the Big 12 tourney, Creighton/Marquette are the 2/3 seeds in the Big East tourney -- if they meet in the semis, those games should just be playoff games to determine who gets the 2-seed vs. the 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. It isn't that simple, but sometimes, it should just be that simple. I don't think any of the teams, coaches, fanbases would have a problem with that.
- With those 4 teams all passing Kansas, that pushes Kansas out of Omaha and to Pittsburgh. With Self potentially punting on the Big 12 tournament, don't be shocked if Kansas doesn't end up in Omaha if they lose their first game or game 2 vs. Baylor.
- Iowa State now has a slight possibility of not making Omaha. It would take many different things occurring but it is possible. If Kansas beats Cincy/West Va and then beats Baylor, and if Iowa State loses to Texas/KState, Kansas will pass Iowa State on the seed list most likely, and Baylor likely would too (as their loss isn't as "bad" of a loss).
- Root for Kansas to lose to Cincinnati or West Virginia, and if they don't, root for Baylor to beat Kansas. If ISU takes care of business, being placed in Omaha shouldn't be a concern, but I'm guessing they would only be 5-8 point favorites against Texas/KState, so it's not a guarantee.
- If Marquette or Creighton drop their first Big East tournament game, that would help ISU as well.
- I have New Mexico and Indiana State as my last 2 teams in the field, but that's with a major qualifier. Florida Atlantic and Dayton are getting in the field, so I just have them as placeholder automatic qualifiers from the American and the A-10. But the odds would say someone other than those two teams will win those conference tournaments. If they do, whomever the last 2 at-large teams are currently will fall out into the NIT.
- Drake's resume really looks like a 9 or 10-seed resume to me, but I just assume most mid-major conference tournament winners are no better than an 11-seed in the eyes of the committee unless they have 2 or 3 losses.
- These things usually get somewhat ironed out in conference tournaments, but I had no idea what to do with the last few spots today. A true "throw your hands up in the air" type reaction. From 38 (Virginia) to my 3rd team out (Villanova) feels incredibly tight. Any of those teams being left out or included at this stage wouldn't surprise me.