Yep, Iowa fans don't want Drake to win the Valley tournament.
Bracketology 2024
- Thread starter CoachHines3
- Start date
Drake winning the Valley tournament would mean they could not be in the First Four. They woudln't play Iowa.
No but it steals a bid from a bubble team.
Iowa doesn't want anyone stealing bids...
houston would have a cakewalk to the finals if this held true.
as an iowa state fan I would would like to see KU/BU on the top half as a 4 and 5 seed. Probably won't happen but still!
Big East as of 3/4/2024
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Probably in:
Work To Do: Villanova, St John's, Seton Hall, Providence
Probably Out: Butler
No Shot: Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier
Villanova picked up a massive road win at Providence likely pushing them into the field - for now. They have a huge week with a road game at fellow bubble team Seton Hall and a home game against Creighton. If they can win either, they can feel good about their standing heading into the Big East tourney.
St John's had the weekend off and finishes with DePaul and Georgetown. The Johnnies need to avoid bad losses there and they are likely guaranteed to be in the field with a first round Big East tourney win. Must prognosticators have St John's in Dayton as it stands now.
Seton Hall took a blowout defeat to UConn. Not great for the ol' metrics to lose by 30 when you're firmly on the bubble. Seton Hall finishes with two home games against Villanova and DePaul. A win over Villanova would be huge for the Pirates tourney hopes. A loss is going to make things difficult even with their impressive collection of top tier Big East wins.
Providence's 0-2 week flipped them from the right side to the wrong side of the bubble. They are now one of the first 2-4 teams out of the tournament depending on who you ask. They have a must win game at Georgetown and then finish with the opportunity for a marquee win with UConn coming to town. The AMP will be rocking for that one. If they can't knock off the defending champs, they're going to need at least a mini run at the Garden next week.
Things look pretty bleak for Butler. They did win at DePaul by margin on Saturday but that doesn't move the needle much. They're barely under consideration as maybe the 12th-14th team out right now. They need to beat Xavier at home and also make a run in the Big East tourney that involves knocking off a UConn, Marquette, or Creighton.
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Probably in:
Work To Do: Villanova, St John's, Seton Hall, Providence
Probably Out: Butler
No Shot: Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier
Villanova picked up a massive road win at Providence likely pushing them into the field - for now. They have a huge week with a road game at fellow bubble team Seton Hall and a home game against Creighton. If they can win either, they can feel good about their standing heading into the Big East tourney.
St John's had the weekend off and finishes with DePaul and Georgetown. The Johnnies need to avoid bad losses there and they are likely guaranteed to be in the field with a first round Big East tourney win. Must prognosticators have St John's in Dayton as it stands now.
Seton Hall took a blowout defeat to UConn. Not great for the ol' metrics to lose by 30 when you're firmly on the bubble. Seton Hall finishes with two home games against Villanova and DePaul. A win over Villanova would be huge for the Pirates tourney hopes. A loss is going to make things difficult even with their impressive collection of top tier Big East wins.
Providence's 0-2 week flipped them from the right side to the wrong side of the bubble. They are now one of the first 2-4 teams out of the tournament depending on who you ask. They have a must win game at Georgetown and then finish with the opportunity for a marquee win with UConn coming to town. The AMP will be rocking for that one. If they can't knock off the defending champs, they're going to need at least a mini run at the Garden next week.
Things look pretty bleak for Butler. They did win at DePaul by margin on Saturday but that doesn't move the needle much. They're barely under consideration as maybe the 12th-14th team out right now. They need to beat Xavier at home and also make a run in the Big East tourney that involves knocking off a UConn, Marquette, or Creighton.
It looks like the MVC is going to be a 1 bid conference. Indiana state would likely be on the outside looking in, without winning the MVC tourney. Last year a similar Bradley team was NIT bound after winning the MVC regular then losing to Drake in the championship.
Lol no you can't compare to last year's Bradley team, just because they won the regular season
That Bradley team was ranked in the 70s in the NET, around 90 in KenPom.
Indiana State is 29 in the NET and 45 in KenPom.
If the MVC championship is Indiana State vs Drake, I think both teams are in the tourney.
Can someone explain to me how / why Michigan State is getting so much love?
Against Quad 1: 4-8
Top 25 NET wins: #13 Baylor
Top 25 NET Losses: #2 Purdue, #4 Arizona, #10 Duke, #15 Illinois, #23 Wisconsin (twice),
Other Losses: @ #43 Nebraska, #52 James Madison, @ #53 Northwestern, #57 Iowa, #59 Ohio State, @ #77 Minnesota,
Hope that's the case. I would love a bid stolen from the bubble for the MVC. Guess it just seemed like Indiana State and Drake were stumbling with some less then ideal losses.
lol it was a joke about Izzo being the only reason
I don’t understand Mich State either. The analytics seem to love them
Can I offer you Indiana State/Iowa instead? Trees might score 150.
Agreed with above. I don't think Drake has the juice to get an at large. Best win is (N) Nevada and have an albatross of a loss to Stephen F Austin.
The Valley was historically bad last year (15th in the NET), back to 9th this year and Indiana State has fantastic numbers. My only concern with them not getting in would be the lack of a true marquee win (lost on the road at Alabama and Michigan State).
Here's my updated bracket for March 4 following this weekend's games.
- I have Iowa State as my final 2-seed now. Although if you look at the path it creates of Gonzaga/Creighton/Purdue, some might prefer Baylor or Kansas 3-seed path instead. Gonzaga in the 2nd round would be a nightmare scenario.
- A bracketing rule for those who are unaware, any school from the same conference in the top-16 MUST be kept in different regions. This is the number 1 priority when the committee builds the bracket. This year in the top 16, there's a good chance you'll have four Big 12 teams, four SEC teams (with Kentucky improved play of late), and three Big East teams. That's 11 of 16 spots, which creates some complicated bracketing procedures at times. I originally had Iowa State as the 2-seed in the East, as they get "last priority" of the 2-seeds for region as they're ranked #8 in my seed list. But due to complications of then placing Creighton, Kansas, and Baylor into regions as 3-seeds, I had to shuffle where the 2-seeds were going.
- I believe this process is basically done by a computer program when the committee builds the bracket, but it's something to consider when you look at bracket projections online. Committee priority for placing teams is as follows:
- Teams from the same conference in the top 16 must be in different regions
- Distance to regional sites
- Regional balance from a competitive standpoint (AKA: S-curve seed list)
- I believe this process is basically done by a computer program when the committee builds the bracket, but it's something to consider when you look at bracket projections online. Committee priority for placing teams is as follows:
- Building the 4/5 pods for me today took entirely too long. Why? BYU! Because BYU cannot (or better said, will not) play on Sundays, they have to be in the West or East regional. They also have to be in the Salt Lake City, Charlotte, Omaha, or Pittsburgh first weekend pods. That creates a difficult situation, especially with my current seed list where I have 3 SEC teams as 4-seeds and South Carolina as a 5-seed AND having only one Thursday/Saturday site in the 4-5 pods.
- I ended up having to switch Auburn from Salt Lake City pod to Spokane pod even though they are closer to SLC.
- I also had to be okay with a potential Clemson/Alabama regular season rematch in round 2 rather than a potential conference rematch with South Carolina.
- I also had to be okay with BYU going to Salt Lake City and potentially having a huge homecourt advantage over the higher-seeded Kentucky in round 2. Imagine this scenario. We'd never hear the end of it from Calipari.
- Because of BYU's setup, don't be surprised on Selection Sunday if they get moved down a seed line if need be in order to make sure they get into a Thursday/Saturday setup. This is a last resort for the committee, but if it's easier to solve their "we don't play on Sundays" situation this way rather than moving a bunch of other teams around, they'll do it. This is what occurred in 2012 when BYU was in the First Four and BYU/Iona were seeded as a 14-seed to make it work.
- With Marquette being without Kolek for at least the next two games (vs. UConn, at Xavier), it's possible Iowa State could/will pass them if ISU wins both games this week.
- 26 through 38 on my seed list is incredibly close right now. I could see any of those teams being seeded anywhere on the 7-8-9-10 line, which feels a bit abnormal for this late in the year.
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I have Drake as my 3rd team out right now. Indiana State would have a better case than Drake, just due to slightly better computer/resume metrics (but they're close). They would need to lose to the other in the MVC tournament final in my opinion to have a shot.
Ultimately, what I think will decide their chances is what happens in the American and A-10 conference tournaments. Every bubble team needs to root for Florida Atlantic and Dayton to win those, because those two teams are getting bids no matter what. If they do win their conference tourneys, two more at-large spots immediately open up.
